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Positive & Negative Regression Candidates (2019 Fantasy Baseball)

Positive & Negative Regression Candidates (2019 Fantasy Baseball)

Fantasy baseball is a puzzle, meshing the science of data and the art of weighing different quantitative and qualitative factors to produce a meaningful projection. This week, the puzzle becomes a little clearer. As mentioned a couple of weeks ago, certain samples stabilize quicker than others. With Week 3 upon us, most fantasy-relevant hitters have had their strikeout rate stabilize, as have pitchers who have faced 60-70 batters. This week, I’ll focus on those rates and try and find some ballplayers who have metrics that support positive and negative regression. All statistics and data are from FanGraphs unless explicitly stated.

This week, I’m going to pour more cold water on guys than get the green light. Blame the Chicago weather for the negativity.

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Positive Regression

Brandon Nimmo (OF – NYM)
Nimmo had his breakout year in 2018, posting a 149 wRC+ over 535 plate appearances. His calling card was his .404 OBP supported by a 15% walk rate. Nimmo struck out 26.2% of the time last year, but everyone was willing to overlook that due to his walks and five-category contributions. Speed forward to today, and everyone is extremely concerned with his 38.8% strikeout rate — as they should be. Unfortunately, that K rate is supported by a 4.4% increase in O-Swing rate (percentage of pitches swung at outside the strike zone), 24.2% drop in O-Contact rate (all the way down to a ridiculous 33.3%), and an even more ridiculous 5.8% increase in swinging-strike rate. The issue, per Brooks Baseball, seems to be on breaking balls:

As you can see, Nimmo is seeing more sliders than ever before and is whiffing on them about 10% more of the time. While Nimmo had trouble hitting sliders in 2017 (-2.5 pVal), his 4.8 pVal on sliders in 2018 suggests he adapted.  He’s still hitting leadoff, and he has a 127 wRC+ despite the bad strikeout rate. While Nimmo has always sported a higher-than-average K rate in the majors, I expect it to stabilize in the mid-20s once again. When that happens, Nimmo’s line should look a lot like last year, plus an increase in runs. No need to fret.

Kenta Maeda (SP/RP- LAD)
Maeda got roughed up in his last start, giving up five earned runs in 5.1 innings at Busch Stadium. He’s also had a start at Coors, and his numbers show it — we expected more than a 4.76 ERA and 7.94 K/9 (21.4% K rate) from Maeda.

His velocity is consistent with last year, but he is getting less movement on all of his pitches. However, that can be explained away since we know that the ball does not move well in Coors. The real issue seems to be that he is getting pounded low in the zone:

Maeda has posted tremendous swinging-strike rates throughout his career, and he currently sits at 13.6%, which is equivalent to a 25-27% strikeout rate. So we know positive regression is in store already. He is also throwing first-pitch strikes 5.4% more than in 2018 while throwing more pitches in the zone overall, which should stabilize his current double-digit walk rate. Per Baseball Savant, his 81.4 mile per hour average exit velocity ranks in the top three percent of baseball, and his hard-hit rate ranks in the top-eight percentile. If he can start throwing up in the zone to counteract the launch angle revolution, he should be able to get quality starts on a regular basis, and we should see that strikeout rate climb in a hurry.

Negative Regression

Mitch Haniger (OF – SEA)
The Mitch Haniger enigma started when he had a great first half in 2017 (four homers in March/April, .342 average) before going on the DL with a strained oblique. He came back in June, only to go back on the DL with a facial laceration for almost three weeks. He then returned to early-season form, hitting seven homers in September with a .353 average. A lot of people didn’t buy in, which resulted in a huge bargain come draft time in 2018. Now he’s on everyone’s radar, which is great! And boy has he delivered, posting a 155 wRC+ thus far.

However, there are warning signs that his surface-level numbers will come down, and soon. For one, he is sporting a 26.2% K rate, which is 4.5% above his 2018 percentage. The bloated K rate is supported by a 1.2% increase in swinging-strike rate and a 15% drop in contact outside of the zone. Taking a deeper dive, we can see that he is getting thrown changeups more often (nearly 13% the pitches he’s seen are changeups) and is absolutely crushing them, posting a 40% HR/FB rate. However, he is striking out more than ever on breaking pitches. Once pitchers recognize this, Haniger should see a steadier diet of breaking balls and fewer offspeed pitches, which could curb his .380 wOBA and .321 ISO.

He is also pulling the ball an incredible 50% of the time with a 44.8% fly-ball rate, and he has increased his launch angle by over five degrees to 17.8. Let’s call this the “Extreme Jose Ramirez” strategy. If he keeps these metrics up, I could see him hitting 30+ homers, but the average may drop to the .270-.275 level. Add it all up, and his xSLG of .424 is a lot more sustainable than his current .605.

George Springer (OF – HOU)
Much like Haniger, Springer is off to a fantastic start, posting a 125 wRC+ with four dingers and a .266/.333/.484 slash line. However, also much like Haniger, his strikeout rate is climbing. Heck, it’s at the end of the ladder and going through the roof. While he posted a K rate below 20% each of the past two years, his current mark is 29.2 percent. Unsurprisingly, this K rate is pumped up by an absurd 13.2% swinging-strike rate, which is third in all of baseball among players with at least 70 plate appearances. His O-Contact% is down 10 percent, and his first-pitch strike rate is at 65.3%, up 8.2% from 2018. Both are driving factors in this upswing of strikeouts.

His batted-ball profile also screams regression with a 50% ground-ball rate and a measly 9.1% line-drive rate. His hard-hit rate is elite at 43.2% (nearly 10% higher than 2018), which can largely be attributed to getting thrown more fastballs and slugging .704 (with a .370 ISO) off them. Once pitchers revert to throwing him more offspeed and breaking pitches early in counts, he will have to adjust back. While I do expect his K rate to stabilize, a clip above 20% will likely happen. We should also see a 20-point drop in BABIP. Sure, Springer could exceed his 2018 numbers, but based on this profile, a replication of his 2017 (34 bombs, 140 wRC+) likely will not happen. You might be able to find an owner who thinks 2017 is in reach, in which case you can sell high.

Tim Anderson (SS – CHW)
This is all about the BABIP. If Anderson can sport a .525 BABIP and 216 wRC+ all year, the White Sox are going to the playoffs (since Yoan Moncada’s breakout seems to be for real). Dan Harris discussed Anderson late last week in his Leading Off podcast, citing this BABIP and how he will come crashing back down to earth, especially with a 25.6% hard-hit rate. Not only that, but his 16.3% line-drive rate leaves much to be desired, and his 23.1% HR/FB rate is unsustainable with a 30.2% fly-ball rate. His plate discipline profile also hasn’t changed much at all, and he is even seeing four percent fewer strikes than last year. While Anderson went 20/20 in 2018, I’m not counting on 20 homers again. Not with these poor metrics. Fifteen homers, 20 steals, and a .255 average seems the most likely outcome. I would wait another week to let the BABIP come down — but while his average still looks better than usual — to sell high.

Zach Davies (SP – MIL)
Aaron Sanchez (SP – TOR)
Trevor Williams (SP – PIT)
None of these guys are owned in enough leagues to warrant their own rundown, but some owners in deeper leagues may be thinking about picking them up. I’m here to tell you, much like the anti-drugs program you took in middle school, to not give in. Williams has a cringy 16.4% strikeout rate to pair with a very lucky .222 BABIP. Davies is leading the majors in ERA vs. FIP differential. His 2.45 ERA is due to an 89.6% strand rate, not a 17.8% K rate and 8.2% walk rate. Sanchez has a double-digit walk rate, so his 1.69 ERA is a direct contradiction of his 1.38 WHIP. In short, avoid these guys.

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Carmen Maiorano is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Carmen, check out his archive and follow him @cmaiorano3.

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