Welcome back for another installment of Statcast Risers & Fallers! The week of April 15-21 featured many new entrants in the Statcast riser category along with one name who has managed to pace the league each week thus far. Let’s dig in!
There’s little surprise that Christian Yelich led baseball in xwOBA last week given his eight home runs and video game-like 1.417 slugging percentage. The fairy tale run just keeps extending itself, with Yelich now owning an MLB-best .481 xwOBA since August 1 of last season.
A likely frequent entrant on these lists moving forward, Rangers slugger Joey Gallo had himself a week with four home runs and 11 RBIs backed up by a .608 xwOBA. Gallo is murdering baseballs this year, with a 32.5% barrel rate and .800 xSLG, both of which rank ahead of the aforementioned Yelich. Typically a slow starter who eventually warms to the task as the weather heats up in July or August, it’s encouraging to see Gallo off to such a good start. Note that while his contact rates are as poor as ever, he has become more selective on pitches outside the strike zone.
After a slow start at the plate and some questionable outfield antics, Cardinals fans are breathing a collective sigh of relief as Marcell Ozuna breaks out. He’s now pushed his barrel rate and xStats all into the top 10% of MLB. But tread carefully. Although it hasn’t manifested in his strikeout rate yet, Ozuna’s zone contact rate has plummeted below 80% this season. Monitor his swing-and-miss tendencies over the next couple of weeks, because if they don’t improve his overall performance will regress.
Brandon Drury’s days at third in Toronto are numbered with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. on the precipice of a call-up. However, after a putrid start, Drury is trying to stake his claim at second base or an outfield spot once the top prospect arrives. Teammate Justin Smoak is off to a scorching start this year with a 175 wRC+ and improved exit velocity readings that point to a circa 2017 resurgence.
It’s difficult to undersell just how good Cody Bellinger has been to start 2019. He’s cut his swing-and-miss rate in half while increasing his barrel rate by nearly 40%, a combination that is exceedingly difficult to pull off. Moreover, he’s been extremely consistent, as this is Bellinger’s fourth straight week in the xwOBA top 10.
This is the second week in a row that a Baltimore Oriole topped the xwOBA trailers board, with Hanser Alberto passing the torch to Cedric Mullins this week. Unless their name is Trey Mancini or Jonathan Villar, stay far away from Baltimore hitters.
It’s time for the 66% of Jose Peraza owners in ESPN leagues to get concerned. Despite a strong finish to 2018, Peraza’s xStats have been consistently poor, and he hasn’t shown any real signs of improving. Much of Peraza’s bat value comes from hitting pulled fly balls that barely sail over the fence for home runs. Maybe this aspect of his game will improve as the temperature increases and balls travel a bit further.
Despite Yelilch’s heroics, the Brewers only went 3-4 this past week, largely due to the struggles of Orlando Arcia, Jesus Aguilar, and Travis Shaw at the plate. The trio went a collective 12-for-70 with only two extra-base hits and a strikeout rate well north of 30%. All three are in the xStat basement to start the year. Both Aguilar and Shaw deserve a bit more patience, but anyone thinking Arcia’s 2018 postseason surge was a sign of real improvement can temper their expectations.
Victor Robles owners should be paying attention to his beleaguered Statcast performance, as his career .361 wOBA outstrips his .288 xwOBA by an astounding 73 points. While it is common for speedy players to outperform batted-ball expectations, that type of premium is impossible to sustain long term. While Robles will likely be a strong player in the future, enterprising owners should look to profit off his hot start and sell while the getting is good.
Yankees first baseman Luke Voit has had a fairly quiet start to the season, namely because a .255 BABIP has suppressed his overall batting line. But Voit is still hitting the ball very hard, evidenced by a 105-mph exit velocity on flies and liners last week. Moreover, his barrel rate is actually higher in 2019 than it was in 2018, and he’s drawing more walks. While Robles presents the ultimate sell-high candidate, Voit is the ultimate buy-low.
Oh Joc, how you tempt us. After another hot week, Pederson now has 10 home runs in 90 plate appearances to start the season. Some are undoubtedly thinking the 27-year-old Pederson has finally turned a corner from merely a good platoon bat to an All-Star. But Pederson has always been streaky, and his xwOBA showing thus far isn’t any higher than his previous hot streaks. Moreover, he’s still doing all his damage against righties. If an owner in your league is willing to pay an outsized price for Pederson, pull the trigger.
Christian Walker, who shares some similar traits to Voit as a late-blooming, power-hitting first baseman, has mashed to the tune of a .353/.421/.706 triple slash for Arizona this season. To put Walker’s performance in perspective, his SLG, xSLG, and exit velocity on flies and liners are all on par with Statcast king Pete Alonso. Yet, Walker is only owned in 36% of ESPN leagues. Pick him up before it’s too late.
This is the second straight week that Red Sox first baseman Mitch Moreland has finished in the top 10 in FB/LD exit velocity. As I discussed last week, Moreland is a serial xStat underperformer, namely because of a home ballpark with excessively spacious right field dimensions. Moreland could be a good streaming candidate though, provided he’s on the road and facing righties.
After a slow start to the season, Mets second baseman Robinson Cano really started to come around, sporting a top-10 xwOBA rate and barrel count for the week. Unfortunately, he was hit in the right hand on a pitch from St. Louis reliever Andrew Miller, necessitating him to leave the game. Initial tests were negative, but even a bruised hand can compromise a batter’s performance. Keep tabs on if Cano misses any time — he sat out Monday — and his exit velocity readings once he comes back.
For a second straight week, Eddie Rosario finished with five barrels. It’s encouraging to see that Rosario, a player whose xStats were underwhelming in 2018, is barreling balls at twice the rate he did in previous seasons. I’m still not totally sold on his long-term viability, but he seems to be providing some justification for his draft position based on his hot start.
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Nicholas Gerli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Nicholas, check out his archive and follow him @nickgerliPL.
