Another week in the books, another trove of Statcast data to filter through. Week 5 favored the pitchers, with leaguewide xwOBAs and barrel rates falling below previous weeks. Nevertheless, there were some very interesting movers and shakers, both on the positive and negative side, to explore. Let’s get to it!
What more can be said about the start to the season Cody Bellinger is having? With 14 home runs and a 1.413 OPS through the season’s first five weeks, the Dodgers outfielder is showing no signs of slowing, earning his fifth consecutive top-10 placement in the weekly xwOBA rankings. Through his exit velocity and launch angle to his whiff rate, everything about Bellinger’s game has improved this year. While he will inevitably cool off at some point, a rare breed of hitter is able to perform this well over a five-week stretch.
Last week’s article discussed how Yankees first baseman Luke Voit was a great buy-low candidate due to his favorable Statcast metrics and improved plate discipline. Well, good luck buying low now. Last week, he smacked 13 hits and four homers en route to a tasty .433/.528/.867 triple slash. Voit’s numbers were backed up by a third-place showing in the xwOBA table to go along with five barrels. He now owns a career 148 wRC+ with 27 homers in 411 plate appearances. It’s safe to say he’s legit at this point.
Something is going on with Alex Gordon. I tried to ignore it for as long as I could because injury-prone 35-year-olds shouldn’t experience a late-career breakout, but Gordon’s .504 xwOBA last week pulled his season-long performance up to .388. Always fairly adept at spraying the ball around well, he has made big improvements in plate discipline, cutting his strikeout rate nearly in half from 21.8 to 11.3%. I wouldn’t necessarily rush out to pick him up, but if you need an injury replacement or weekly streaming option, give Gordon a look and keep tabs on his progress.
Gordon’s teammate, Whit Merrifield, is beginning to establish himself as a well-rounded hitter rather than just a slap guy with speed. His plate discipline, which was already a strong suit, is improving further this year, alongside a blossoming power game evidenced by a .195 ISO and .194 xISO. A 20/40 season to go along with a .290 batting average is in the cards. He’s what Trea Turner should have been.
After a putrid spring and slow start to the season, Cardinals outfielder Dexter Fowler is regaining respectability with a .341 xwOBA on the season. His resurgence has pushed teammate Harrison Bader out of the lineup and will make opportunities difficult for Tyler O’Neill. I wouldn’t necessarily suggest owning Fowler for fantasy purposes, but track his progress to see if he falls off. If he does, snag Bader or O’Neill.
This is a fun week because we finally have some relevant names on the xwOBA trailers list. But before getting to the names you care about, it’s worth noting that the Baltimore Orioles now have a three-week streak featuring a player atop the xwOBA trailers board. Two weeks ago it was Hanser Alberto. Last week it was Cedric Mullins, who has since been demoted. Now it’s Joey Rickard’s turn. Will Chris Davis make an appearance next week?
Wil Myers had a tough week for the Padres, going 2-for-22 with a 54.5% strikeout rate. While his year-long batting line is passable given a 100 wRC+, his 0.16 BB/K ratio leaves much to be desired. Myers has a big contract and a longer leash than most, but there is significant competition for at-bats in the Padres outfield. A protracted slump could lead to time on the pine.
After a hot start to the year, Cubs catcher Willson Contreras was due to cool off. Through 94 plate appearances, Contreras has nearly matched his home run total through all of last season. He’s lifting the ball much more this season, increasing his average launch angle from 6.8 to 11.5 degrees. The increased fly-ball rate has come at the expense of strikeouts, so Contreras might experience some streakiness, but there is nothing to be concerned about at this point.
This marks Victor Robles’ second straight week on the xwOBA trailers list. At this juncture last week, his box score performance hadn’t dipped down to his poor peripherals yet. That changed in a big way last week with a .599 OPS and 52 wRC+. Owners in re-draft leagues should look to trade Robles. If they wait another week or two, they might be stuck with an underperforming player for the rest of the season.
Javier Baez is picking up where he left off last season, spraying hard-hit balls around the diamond and even increasing his walk rate a bit in the process. While many remain skeptical of Baez due to his free-swinging ways, he is the rare hitter who can hit the ball hard in any part of the strike zone — and even completely out of the zone at times.
Like the rest of the Reds outfield, Jesse Winker slumped big time to start the season. Over the last two weeks, however, he owns a 131 wRC+ and .262 ISO, underwritten by increased exit velocities on flies and liners. The Reds still shelter Winker against lefties, and that might not change as long as Matt Kemp is on the roster, but he is worth more than his 50% ownership in fantasy leagues indicate.
A mere eight games into his MLB career, Red Sox rookie Michael Chavis has turned heads with several tape-measure bombs and elite exit velocities. The righty packs some serious pop and looks to have a handle on the keystone corner duties for Boston. While Chavis will likely develop into a feast-or-famine type of player over the course of the season, evidenced by a 65% contact rate to date, he’s worth owning in most fantasy formats.
Nationals sensation Juan Soto is proving that last season was no fluke, nearly doubling his barrel rate from 2018 while maintaining the elite plate discipline metrics that made him so special as a 19-year-old rookie.
Kole Calhoun is quietly producing power from atop the Angels lineup with seven home runs and a .250 ISO to start the season. His overall batting line doesn’t look as enticing due to an unfortunate .209 BABIP. But while Calhoun is a fundamentally low-BABIP player due to the effects of the shift along with an inclination for pop-ups, he will certainly improve his .202 batting average in the near future. If the Angels have a full week slate against righties, grab the outfielder as an injury replacement or streaming option.
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Nicholas Gerli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Nicholas, check out his archive and follow him @nickgerliPL.
