Throughout the offseason, you will see plenty of mock drafts analyzed on this site. While the primary value of mock drafts isn’t realized until August, there is still something to be gained from conducting them at various times leading up to draft season. My first mock draft was full PPR back in April. I will be conducting a second full-PPR mock draft later this month. This mock is half PPR.
For this mock draft, I decided to go with the two spot. This is for a 12-team, half-PPR league with one QB, two WRs, two RBs, one TE, and one flex. I removed kickers and defenses because there just isn’t any value in including them, especially in May.
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1.02: Ezekiel Elliott (RB – DAL)
Given the advantage of having an elite RB, the top four picks in nearly all leagues should be running backs. Truthfully, you can take your pick out of Saquon Barkley, Ezekiel Elliott, Christian McCaffrey, and Alvin Kamara. I have my preference, as you can clearly see, but an argument can be made for any one of these four guys.
In deciding on Zeke, I’m splitting hairs, but I do have reasons. Much like Barkley, Elliott is a three-down back that catches passes and is locked into goal-line work. I would actually take Zeke over Barkley because their opportunities are identical while Zeke is on a better offense. As for CMC and Kamara, both are great picks as well. I just prefer the guaranteed volume that comes with Zeke and the lack of concerns about a potentially reduced workload (McCaffrey) or someone else stealing goal-line touches (Latavius Murray).
2.11: Mike Evans (WR – TB)
I was a bit taken aback by what I saw when I was once again on the clock. The reliable RBs are all gone. I am not taking an RB with a bunch of questions over a WR I know will not fail me. I am also certainly not taking a TE that isn’t Travis Kelce this high. That’s not even a consideration. So it’s definitely wide receiver.
It was a tough choice between Mike Evans, T.Y. Hilton, and Keenan Allen (A.J. Green was also here, but not considered). I may very well feel differently about Hilton versus Evans later in the offseason, but for now, Evans got the nod. I wish I had a great reason for this, but I don’t. As for Evans over Allen, I chose to go with Evans’ greater touchdown upside and the fact that he (as well as Hilton) can produce on limited targets while Allen needs volume.
3.02: T.Y. Hilton (WR – IND)
As it turned out, my arbitrary decision to go with Evans over T.Y. Hilton did not matter because I ended up drafting both. When picking from a slot with two picks in rapid succession, the draft landscape is typically the same for both picks. For the same reasons I took a WR at 2.11, I took another one at 3.01. At this point, I’m thinking I am most likely going to go “Single RB” in this draft.
4.11 Cooper Kupp (WR – LAR)
My suspicions are proving correct so far as I am selecting yet another wide receiver. I am super high on Cooper Kupp this year. He will be fully recovered from his torn ACL, but the time away has many fantasy gamers forgetting that he was performing as a WR1 prior to going down. Granted it was a very limited sample size, but I still don’t see much changing about the Rams’ offense this season. Kupp is the cheapest (barely) of the three Rams WRs and, therefore, the one I want.
5.02 Kenyan Drake (RB – MIA)
At this pick, I am at a bit of a crossroads. I am not taking a quarterback this high because that is bad process. I could go O.J. Howard, but I feel like not only is it too high, but I can wait and get Evan Engram with one of my next two picks. I already have three wide receivers and while I am not opposed to grabbing a bench WR before my RB2, there’s no clear standout WR here that is significantly better than what I can get if I wait.
On a similar note, there are a number of RBs I am fine with drafting here, but nothing really separating them. Since I have to choose someone, I reluctantly went with Kenyan Drake. I don’t think many people would go with Drake here and it does run counter to my philosophy of not drafting players on bad teams, but we’re in the fifth round and I’m looking for a running back that can be a strong RB2. Drake has virtually no competition for touches as the Dolphins lost Frank Gore (which is addition by subtraction) and did not bring in anyone to compete with Drake.
I have concerns about each of Phillip Lindsay, Kerryon Johnson, Chris Carson, Mark Ingram, and Derrius Guice. The only other real candidate was Tarik Cohen and I am really down on the Bears this season. Plus Cohen, as a satellite back, relies too much on game script and splash plays. I may prefer him later in the offseason, but right now, it’s Drake.
6.11 Evan Engram (TE – NYG)
My gamble paid off and even though both Howard and Hunter Henry were selected, Evan Engram remained on the board for me to snatch up. The Giants brought in Golden Tate, but he is not Odell Beckham and Engram’s splits with and without Beckham have me bullish that Engram could have the 2019 ascension I thought we were getting in 2018.
7.02 Christian Kirk (WR – ARI)
I was secretly hoping Tarik Cohen would find his way to me here, but he went in one of the two picks between Engram and this one. I could have gone Lamar Miller here if I wanted a running back, but Miller is a floor pick. I want ceiling. I want players that can break out and win me championships. That is why I went with Christian Kirk.
I am in love with Kirk this season. The selections of Andy Isabella and Hakeem Butler do not concern me. The Cardinals’ air raid offense will have enough targets to go around.
Kirk has legitimate WR2 upside and he is my WR4. Worst case, he will be a reliable player off the bench, which is all I need him to be. Best case, he steals Cooper Kupp’s job in my starting lineup, allowing me to make a trade to upgrade at RB.
8.11 Matt Breida (RB – SF)
After the eighth round, the likelihood of your player being useful really drops. At the end of the eighth round, I feel like I’m already at that point. Breida may be the odd man out in a three-man committee featuring Jerick McKinnon and Tevin Coleman, but Breida is the cheapest of the three. The 49ers with a healthy Jimmy Garoppolo should have a strong offense. And we saw Breida produce last season. We know he can do it. I’ll wager that Breida ends up with a useful role and McKinnon isn’t exactly the pinnacle of health.
9.02 Ito Smith (RB – ATL)
Devonta Freeman’s backup is the perfect guy for my strategy. Ito Smith is an injury away from a primary role in Dirk Koetter’s offense. Smith may also have standalone value as an RB3/flex playing the role vacated by Tevin Coleman.
10.11 Kyler Murray (QB – ARI)
I really don’t care how low he is ranked. I am treating this draft realistically. Kyler Murray probably won’t make it to the 10th round in any draft and will likely be an eighth-round pick once we get into the preseason, but there’s nothing I can do about that now. I’m taking Murray because he has legitimate top-five upside.
I don’t need a safe option like Jared Goff or Philip Rivers and I don’t want a potentially broken Cam Newton. Murray comes with the fantasy cheat code in his rushing and will be the captain of an air raid offense. This Murray-Kirk connection could be a league winner.
11.02 Carlos Hyde (RB – KC)
Why not? Carlos Hyde is Damien Williams‘ backup. Hyde is an injury away from being the main back in the Chiefs’ offense. That’s enough for me in the 11th round.
12.11 D.K. Metcalf (WR – SEA)
This is another guy whose ADP will skyrocket. He is now the presumed WR2 in Seattle. I expect him to get into the late-single digits. I don’t love D.K. Metcalf as a prospect, but I can’t deny the athleticism.
He has upside. Either he pans out or he doesn’t. I think we will know pretty quickly if he is a bust, a situational deep threat/red zone guy, or Calvin Johnson 2.0.
13.02 Cam Newton (QB – CAR)
At this point, I’ll take Cam Newton. I don’t mind having the safe veteran QB as a backup plan.
14.11 Jaylen Samuels (RB – PIT)
It is more important to take a sixth RB than a sixth WR and Jaylen Samuels is the ideal guy. It’s entirely possible he has some standalone value if the Steelers use him to his abilities. Worst case, he’s a James Conner injury away from being a weekly RB2 as we have already seen from him.
Final Roster
QB: Kyler Murray, Cam Newton
RB: Ezekiel Elliott, Kenyan Drake, Matt Breida, Ito Smith, Carlos Hyde, Jaylen Samuels
WR: Mike Evans, T.Y. Hilton, Cooper Kupp, Christian Kirk, D.K. Metcalf
TE: Evan Engram
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Jason Katz is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Jason, check out his archive or follow him @jasonkatz13.
