DraftKings has priced seven golfers at $9,500 or above this week. Rory McIlroy and Tiger Woods lead the way and are the only players priced in the 11k range at $11,500 and $11,200, respectively. Justin Rose ($10,800), Rickie Fowler ($10,600), and Patrick Cantlay ($10,200) round out the five-figure salary club. DraftKings provides you with $50,000 to select six golfers for an average roster spot of $8,333.
Last week’s golf tournament was crazy for the high-end golfers. In a smaller field last week, the 12 highest priced golfers did terrible. Seven of them either missed the cut or withdrew before the weekend. Of the remaining five players that played the weekend, only two of them (Finau and Spieth) finished inside the top 50. Only about 3% of lineups had all six players making it through to the weekend. That is amazing! Golf is tough! DFS golf is tough!
All of the tips and information that I mention in this article are plays that I will be considering for my own lineups. However, that doesn’t mean that I will end up with all of the guys that I mention. Additional news, research, and roster construction may lead me to different plays. Remember to check the news and social media reports leading up to the first golfer teeing off. Though golf is more difficult to get injury news, you might be able to pick up a nugget or two that helps with roster construction – especially when dealing with possible withdrawals.
Work at having a solid process week in and week out as opposed to getting bogged down by recency bias or the ups-and-downs of the weekly golf grind. Have a solid process and use all the information available to make the best decision possible for your lineup. Good luck and, most importantly, have fun! Whether you win or lose, golf is one of the most entertaining fantasy sports to follow because you get four days of action.
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TOURNAMENT NOTES
The Memorial Tournament is played at the Muirfield Village Golf Club, a course that Jack Nicklaus helped create in 1974 for his hometown of Dublin, Ohio – just outside Columbus. The first tournament was held in 1976.
The course is a Par 72 and measures 7,392 yards. The small, fast greens are primarily bent grass with some POA mixed in. The course is very tree lined and the rough is thick.
Average winning score has been 13-under par and the average cut line has been two-over par.
This is a small field this week with 122 players scheduled to tee it up with the top 70 (and ties) making the cut and playing on the weekend. The MDF rule is in effect if more than 78 golfers make the initial cut.
The Memorial Tournament was founded by Jack Nicklaus in 1976 and is one of five invitational tournaments on the PGA Tour. The Genesis Open, Arnold Palmer Invitational, RBC Heritage, and the Charles Schwab Challenge (Colonial) are the other invitationals.
Previous winners at The Memorial that are in the field this week include Bryson DeChambeau (2018), Jason Dufner (2017), David Lingmerth (2015), Hideki Matsuyama (2014), Matt Kuchar (2013), Tiger Woods (2012, 2009, 2001, 2000, 1999), Steve Stricker (2011), Justin Rose (2010), K.J. Choi (2007), Ernie Els (2004), and Jim Furyk (2002).
Four of the last five winners were decided in a playoff.
Seven of the top 10 in the Official World Golf Rankings at Muirfield Village this week to play.
COURSE FIT & KEY STATISTICS
Shots Gained: Approach
In the last 36 rounds, the golfers that have demonstrated the best approach game (in ranked order) are Keegan Bradley, Henrik Stenson, Matt Kuchar, Jason Kokrak, Tiger Woods, Rory McIlroy, Hideki Matsuyama, Justin Thomas, Corey Conners, and Patrick Cantlay.
Shots Gained: Short Game
The greens are smaller and the GIR is lower than the tour average, so it is important to have a strong short game. In the last 36 rounds, the golfers with the best short games (in ranked order) have been Aaron Baddeley, Jordan Spieth, Andrew Putnam, Charles Howell III, Si Woo Kim, Pat Perez, Vaughn Taylor, Justin Rose, Rickie Fowler, and Luke Donald.
Proximity: 175-200 Yards
Many of the golfers will have shots from the 175-200 yard range. The best golfers from this range during the last 36 rounds are Hao Tong Li, Adam Schenk, Marc Leishman, Ryan Moore, Tiger Woods, Jason Kokrak, Justin Rose, Sung Kang, Patrick Cantlay, and Matt Kuchar.
Bogey Avoidance
This is a definitely a course that a golfer can get into trouble at and so we want to look at players that are able to avoid the big numbers on a consistent basis. In the last 36 rounds played, the players that have done the best at avoiding bogeys are Rory McIlroy, Patrick Cantlay, Jim Furyk, Matt Kuchar, Jason Kokrak, Xander Schauffele, Rickie Fowler, Justin Rose, Lucas Glover, and Justin Thomas.
Jack Nicklaus Designed Courses
When looking at the last 36 rounds played on Jack Nicklaus designed courses, the following players have scored the most fantasy point (in ranked order): Matt Kuchar, Jason Dufner, David Lingmerth, Rory McIlory, Tony Finau, Hideki Matsuyama, Phil Mickelson, Jason Day, Adam Scott, and Rory Sabbatini.
COURSE HISTORY
Rory McIlroy ($11,500)
After finishing T4 in 2016, McIlroy took a year off from the tournament. However, he came back last year and showed everyone that he still is a good course fit when he finished T8. Overall, he has made the cut in six of his seven starts. He also had another top-five finish in 2011.
Tiger Woods ($11,200)
He loves this course and loves this event. Woods has finished in the top four in half of his 16 starts at this course. He has never missed a cut and has won the event on five separate occasions, which the most recent being in 2012. He finished T23 last year.
Kyle Stanley ($7,800)
He has made the cut in five of his six appearances here. His runner-up performance last year was his third top-six finish in the last four years.
Byeong-Hun An ($7,400)
He ranks third in my course history model (last five years of SG: Total and Fantasy Scoring) as he has made three straight cuts here. Last year’s runner-up performance was impressive, but he did have a T25 and T11 in the two previous years.
RECENT FORM
Rory McIlroy ($11,500)
He has played the weekend in 21 straight events. Even more impressive is that he isn’t just making cuts but he is playing well. He has finished in the top 25 in all but three of those 21 events. During this stretch he has seven top-five finishes, including a win at The PLAYERS. In the last 36 rounds, Rory ranks first in both fantasy scoring and total shots gained.
Patrick Cantlay ($10,200)
He is first in my recent form model (measuring fantasy scoring and total shots gained during the past 4, 8, 12, 24, and 36 rounds). In his last 11 events, he has nine top-15 finishes. This includes back-to-back T3 finishes at the PGA Championship and the RBC Heritage. Remember also, that he temporarily took the lead on the 15th hole at The Masters on Sunday. He is playing really good golf right now.
Rory Sabbatini ($8,300)
I am not sure how long the hot streak can last for Sabbatini but he is certainly playing some of the best golf of his life. He is typically a streaky golfer and is definitely on a hot streak right now. In my recent form model, only Cantlay, McIlroy, and Matt Kuchar rate out higher. Which makes this even more impressive is the fact that his third place finish at the Zurich Classic (partner event) isn’t figured into that recent form model. He has made 10 straight cuts on the PGA Tour. During that streak, his worst finish was a T39 down in the Dominican Republic. His last five events (including the Zurich) have all been top-25 finishes with three of them being sixth place or better.
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Tony Finau ($9,600)
Finau has made the cut in all four tries at The Memorial Tournament. His T13 last year gave him his third top-15 finish here. He seems to have a game suited for this course. But seriously though, is there a course that his game isn’t suited for? He seems to have it all and it is just a matter of time before he gets his first really impressive win on Tour. I know that he won the 2016 Puerto Rico Open against Steve Marino in a playoff but we are all anticipating bigger things from him. In fact, since that win, nobody on the PGA Tour has more top-10 finishes without a win than the 21 that Finau has. We just saw a runner-up from him this past weekend as Kevin Na ran away with the win at Colonial. Finau is close as that runner-up finish and his T5 at The Masters showed. He is also very consistent as he has played the weekend in 24 of his previous 25 events.
Matt Kuchar ($9,400)
Kuuuuuuuch is ranked second in my course history model, third in my customized stat model, and third in my recent form model. He has nine top-15 finishes in his last 10 starts at Jack’s course, which is not too shabby. In his 13 career starts, he has only missed the cut in 2003. He finished T13 last year after back-to-back fourth place finishes. Kuchar won the 2013 event. Nobody has gained more total strokes at The Memorial in the last five years than Kuchar. As for right now, he has shown no signs of slowing down in what has been a career year. He started the year off with a couple of wins and is still in good form. His worst finish in his last five events was a T12 at The Masters. During that stretch, he has two runner-up finishes (WGC-Match Play and RBC Heritage) and just finished T8 at the PGA Championship. He has made 16 straight PGA cuts.
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Gary Woodland ($8,800)
He has played on the weekend in 24 of his last 25 events. His putter has kept him from being totally dominant. With these greens being smaller, putting will not be as important as some other tournaments. In his last two PGA events, he has finished T8 at the PGA Championship and T32 at The Masters. His finish at the PGA Championship gave him his seventh top-10 finish of the 2018-19 season. In his last 36 rounds played, he is sixth in fantasy scoring. He has made the cut in four of his last five trips to The Memorial. His best finish is a T4 in 2016.
Adam Scott ($8,700)
He has been up and down lately with four terrible performances and five good performances in his last nine starts. However, The Memorial is a top-notch tournament with an elite field, so I am going to be selective and look at his last three events that are similar. He has performed well in those similar events as he finished T8 at the PGA Championship, T18 at The Masters, and T12 at The PLAYERS. Overall, he is fifth in my recent form model (which doesn’t account for the Zurich team event) and is sixth in my customized stat model. His course history at the Memorial isn’t terrible as I have him ranked 12th in my model. He has made the cut in 10 of his 11 starts, including three top-five finishes. His best recent finish was a T4 in 2014. He finished T35 last year.
Jason Kokrak ($8,200)
Kokrak leads the PGA Tour with 22 straight cuts made as he hasn’t missed a cut since the Open Championship last July. He has cooled off a little bit lately as he has gone three straight tournaments without a top-20 finish. Prior to that he had eight top-20 finishes in a span of 10 events. Overall, during his consecutive cut streak, he has 14 top-25 finishes, including four top-10 finishes. He should have a game that fits this course but hasn’t played well here in the past. However, he is having a career year, so he has never played The Memorial coming in with the form that he is this year. He is probably a better cash game play because his upside in a field like this is limited and he will probably have a little higher ownership than we’d like.
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Emiliano Grillo ($7,900)
Grillo is back in the price range that makes it a fairly comfortable play. He didn’t kill our lineups last week when he finished T19 but also didn’t necessarily help us at his inflated price last week. There is no such thing as a safe DFS golf selection, but he has consistent form and has solid course history. He has made the cut in more than 90% of his starts this year, including a current string of six straight. Prior to his last missed cut (at the Honda Classic), he has a string of 14 made cuts worldwide. He has made the cut each of the past three years at Memorial, finishing T23, T40, and T11. He has the ability to hit fairways, as well as the approach game that is perfectly suited for this course. Overall, I wish he had more upside, but he has strong probability for a top-25 finish, which would return value on his price tag.
Kevin Streelman ($7,400)
After posting back-to-back sixth place finishes at the RBC Heritage and the Valero Texas Open, Streelman has come back down to early a little bit lately with a T31 last week at Colonial and a T45 the week before that at the Wells Fargo. As for course history, he has made four straight cuts at The Memorial. Last year’s T44 was the only finish outside of the top 25 for him, as he finished T13, T8, and T18 previously. Four made cuts in a row on the PGA tour plus four straight made cuts at this course makes him a decent value option this week.
Peter Uihlein ($7,200)
This is definitely a risky pick and if you don’t feel comfortable playing him or he gains way too much momentum and will be chalky, you might want to pivot away from him. Uihlein’s last two starts have been what we’ve been waiting to see out of him for quite some time. The former World Golf Amateur number one ranked player has finished T13 and T5 in back-to-back events. It is a very limited sample, but in his last eight rounds, there are only five golfers that have scored more fantasy points than he has. The risk is that he missed his three previous cuts before his top five at the Byron Nelson. I like him this week not just because he has put together a couple of nice outings but because he has done well at this golf tournament. In his only appearances, he finished top five last year and T25 in 2017. Granted, it’s a small sample but he has good form and good course history to go along with his immense talent.
FAVORITE $6,000 PLAYS
Max Homa ($6,700)
I am not a fan of the low-priced guys this week but since I like the second-tier players (Matsuyama, Finau, Kuchar, Scott, Woodland, etc…) and don’t feel the need to pay up then I won’t have to go down very low. But if I was dipping into this lower range, Homa would probably be someone that would catch my eye. He doesn’t necessarily pop in any stat model, nor does he have any course history here, but he has made the cut in nine of his last 10 starts, including five in a row. During that stretch, he picked up a win at the Wells Fargo Open. He just finished a solid T27 last week at Colonial. He is a good option that has good form and has shown upside.
David Lingmerth ($6,300)
This play is not for the faint of heart and might not be able to end up pulling the trigger on him. But, if you are wanting to play Tiger or Rory and need a cheap punt play, then you might as well look at a guy that has done well here in the past. The 2015 Memorial champion has made the cut in all six starts here. Outside of his win, he has not really been a factor (despite always making the cut). Other than his win, his best finish was T15 in 2017. However, only Matt Kuchar has gained more strokes at Memorial than has Lingmerth in the last five years. Nothing in his recent form says that he is trending up or that he’s a guy to select other than his course history. He has only made two of six cuts this season on the PGA Tour, but he did make the cut in the most recent event (Byron Nelson) that he played in.
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Jamy Bechler is a regular contributor to FantasyPros for NBA, NFL, and PGA. You can follow him on his DFS twitter @WinningDFS101. When he is not playing DFS, Jamy is an author, host of the “Success is a Choice” podcast, and is a leadership trainer, working with businesses and teams across the country (including the NBA). Even though he offers his advice on players and contests, after additional information and consideration, he may end up using different players and strategies than what he recommends.
