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Dynasty Players to Buy, Sell, and Hold (2019 Fantasy Baseball)

Dynasty Players to Buy, Sell, and Hold (2019 Fantasy Baseball)

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Opportunities to move and acquire players in dynasty leagues are both exciting and nerve-wracking. There’s much more at stake than the current season, so you must take the future into account. While future seasons should be considered, 2019 is the most important year for you if you have a chance to win. That’s not to say you should blow up your team to try and win this season, but flags do fly forever. Be honest with yourself and your dynasty team’s chances as we get deeper into the summer.

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Buy

Kyle Schwarber (OF – CHC)
I’ve consistently been one of the lowest people on Schwarber since his rookie year, but his price is now so low that I think he’s worth acquiring or even just picking up in dynasty leagues. He’s crushing the ball this year with his 50.4% hard-hit rate ranking in baseball’s top 10%. He’s currently hitting leadoff for one of the game’s best offenses and getting on base at a .333 clip, lessening the pain of his .222 batting average. Schwarber’s power potential can’t be denied, as he’s hit 25+ homers in each of the last two years and has nine already this season. Statcast data on Baseball Savant has his expected batting average at a more respectable .259, so there’s hope for him in that department. Schwarber has his flaws, but he’s still useful and no longer comes attached to a huge price.

Dansby Swanson (SS – ATL)
The former number one overall pick seems to finally be putting it all together for the Braves in 2019. He’s hitting .260/.317/.475 with 10 home runs and five stolen bases in his first 55 games. He’s hit so well recently that Atlanta has been batting him second in the order between Ronald Acuña Jr and Freddie Freeman. That favorable lineup spot will only help his counting stats and fantasy value going forward. Swanson’s BABIP sits at just .275, leading me to believe that he’ll finish with an even higher batting average. His 16.4 HR/FB% is quite a bit above his career average, but it’s not so high that it’s going to plummet. His newfound power is mostly for real, so go out and buy Swanson with confidence.

Sell

Eduardo Escobar (3B/SS – ARI)
Escobar got off to a slow start to the season but picked it up quickly. After a scorching hot May, he has a season-long slash line of .290/.353/.561 with 13 bombs. His plate skills remain solid and roughly the same as last season. I liked Escobar going into the season, and while I have a few shares, I’m looking to get out right now. First of all, his batting average is highly unsustainable. According to Statcast, his expected average is just .237. His expected slugging percentage is an even bigger problem, as it is over 100 points lower (.421) than his actually .561. He isn’t hitting the ball particularly hard, and there just isn’t anything that special in this profile. See if you can get a younger alternative while his full-season numbers make him look better than he is.

Marcus Stroman (SP – TOR)
I’m not sure if it’s Stroman’s competitive nature or his general likeability that keeps me hoping for a return to his 2017 form, but if you’ve somehow held on to him since then, you finally have a chance to sell for a bit of value. Is he the pitcher who posted a 5.54 ERA a season ago or the one who has pitched to a 2.74 ERA so far this season? As usual, the truth is somewhere in the middle, but I’m concerned that it’s closer to last year’s bloated number. It’s fair to think that Stroman’s ERA can sit around 4.00 like his xFIP suggests, but his strikeout rate lowers his ceiling. His 19.5% K% is closer to his 2017 numbers, but it’s still not anything to write home about. I truly think Stroman’s personality and swagger give him more perceived value than he actually has. Capitalize on that while he’s still young (28) and performing well by trading him now.

Hold

Corey Seager (SS – LAD)
After essentially a lost season in 2018, Seager hasn’t exactly inspired confidence in his dynasty owners’ eyes so far in 2019. He’s hit five home runs while slashing just .238/.330/.381 in 53 games. Seager’s overall profile has me thinking that he’s not fully recovered from his UCL sprain or there’s some sort of unreported injury going on here. His hard-hit percentage is over eight percent lower than the last time we saw him healthy in 2017. He’s hitting way more fly balls this season than he ever has, contributing to his lower batting average. If he can get his swing straightened out, though, this is still a 25-year-old potential stud. I’m not looking to trade him for pennies on the dollar if I’ve held him all this time in a dynasty league.

Brandon Woodruff (SP – MIL)
I preferred Woodruff to Corbin Burnes and Freddy Peralta during the draft season. That seems to be paying off nicely right now, as the other pitchers are in Triple-A and the Brewers’ bullpen, respectively. After a rough April, I love what I’m seeing from Woodruff in May, as he has a 1.36 ERA with 37 strikeouts in 33 innings. The massive 29.1% strikeout rate is likely to regress just a bit, but make no mistake: this is an elite strikeout pitcher. If you were smart enough to draft and subsequently hold Woodruff through his struggles, it’s time to reap the rewards. Don’t sell just to sell, as I see big upside for years to come. Make sure you get a young, top-30 starter with upside if you must move Woodruff.

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