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Dynasty WR Bust Candidates (2019 Fantasy Football)

by Chuck Gioffre
May 30, 2019

Bruce Arians’ scheme will likely negatively impact Mike Evans’ target share

Does anyone enjoy taking a pessimistic approach on projecting fantasy candidates this early in the season? Projecting bust candidates doesn’t come with the joy of finding breakouts. However, in dynasty formats, each roster spot holds more significance with such minimal opportunity for roster turnover and no reset button at the beginning of each season, especially at the WR position. Utilizing dynasty rankings provides context on a player’s value and how to determine breakout/bust candidates based on ADP. With that in mind, here are some potential dynasty bust candidates based on FantasyPros Dynasty Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR).

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Mike Evans (WR – TB): WR6, Overall 14
Evans has been a reliable, productive dynasty pick since he entered the league and he hasn’t disappointed fantasy owners. He’s still relatively young (25 years old) and has averaged 149 targets, 1,263 receiving yards, and seven touchdowns over the last four years. Bruce Arians’ arrival is an upgrade for the offense; however, Chris Godwin and O.J. Howard should receive heavier target share as more reliable weapons.

Plus, the running backs should see greater volume and scoring opportunities under Arians than they did under the previous coaching staff. Evans’ production has been buoyed by heavy target volume and team target share. If his target volume diminishes, he will struggle to meet his ADP price and expectations.

Antonio Brown (WR – OAK): WR9, Overall 20
For the first time, Brown’s fantasy dominance comes into question following his departure from Pittsburgh and Ben Roethlisberger. Antonio Brown’s new QB, Derek Carr, is a fine replacement, but depending on sustainable fantasy output week in and week out under Jon Gruden is a scary proposition. In FFPC high-stakes dynasty drafts, Brown’s ADP translates to WR11, 28th overall, which further drives at the uncertainty surrounding the Raiders’ offense. His current ADP has that uncertainty baked into his price given his historical ADP, but at 30 years old in a volatile offense, I will tread lightly.

Calvin Ridley (WR – ATL): WR22, Overall 48
There is no denying Ridley had a successful rookie campaign. He delivered WR22 fantasy production in 2018 mostly tied to his high TD rate – 16%. Touchdown production is volatile year to year, so I’m expecting regression based on historical evidence and the fact he is still competing for targets with Julio Jones.

His age is another concern, especially in dynasty leagues. Ridley was an unusually older rookie at 24 years old. He makes an attractive sell target in dynasty given his strong performance last year and I would strike while his price is inflated. I will be avoiding Ridley in dynasty, especially at his current price.

Mike Williams (WR – LAC): WR25, Overall 61
Williams’ current ranking and ADP are 20 spots higher in dynasty drafts than in 2018. A steep price increase for a receiver that averaged just four targets per game. However, Williams converted 23% of his receptions into touchdowns last year for 10 total receiving touchdowns, which has inflated his price. As I mentioned previously, touchdowns aren’t reliable year to year and Hunter Henry is expected to be back and command heavy targets. Mike Williams has been basically been used as a TE and only accumulated 85 total yards after the catch last year, ranking 103rd among receivers according to Williams’ unstainable TD rate and increased target competition make him an ideal bust candidate heading into 2019.

Courtland Sutton (WR – DEN): WR27, Overall 70
The temptation to select younger players in dynasty startup drafts is hard to resist. Falling into the trap of overpaying for younger receivers on youth and upside alone can destroy your chances of rostering a competitive team. Sutton truthers fall into this trap. More productive and athletic receivers such as Will Fuller and Tyler Boyd are currently ranked lower than Sutton.

I see the other side of the argument for Sutton in dynasty – a prototypical X-receiver who is projected to command WR1 targets in Denver’s offense given the Emmanuel Sanders injury. However, in the four weeks Sanders missed, Sutton only cracked 60 yards once and never caught more than six passes. I think Sutton is a fine dynasty target and has attractive upside, but at the current asking price, I am passing for established players who have already proven they can produce.

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Chuck Gioffre is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Chuck, check out his archive and follow him @cgioffre34.

Busts, Dynasty, Featured, Featured Link, NFL