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FanDuel PGA Preview: Charles Schwab Challenge

FanDuel PGA Preview: Charles Schwab Challenge

Eight golfers are priced at $11,000 or above on FanDuel this week. Justin Rose and Jon Rahm lead the way as the only golfers in the 12k range at $12,200 and $12,000, respectively. Rickie Fowler ($11,800), Francesco Molinari ($11,600), and Jordan Spieth ($11,400) round out the top five, in terms of salary. FanDuel provides you with $60,000 to select six golfers for an average roster spot of $10,000. I am not a huge fan of the golfers at the lower levels this week, which will probably lead me to more of a balanced build in the majority of my lineups, rostering more golfers in the mid-9k to mid-10k range. There is not a lot of value down low that makes rostering two of Rose, Rahm, or Fowler a confidence-inspiring endeavor.

All of the tips and information that I mention in this article are plays that I will be considering for my own lineups. However, that doesn’t mean that I will end up with all of the guys that I mention. Additional news, research, and roster construction may lead me to different plays. Remember to check the news and social media reports leading up to the first golfer teeing off. Though golf is more difficult to get injury news, you might be able to pick up a nugget or two that helps with roster construction – especially when dealing with possible withdrawals.

Remember that just like real-life golf, DFS golf can be frustrating and fun all at the same time. DFS Golf is really hard. For example, remember that the last four winners of non-PGA majors were surprises. Sung Kang had missed the cut in his two starts prior to the Byron Nelson. Max Homa won the Wells Fargo but his 2018-19 season started with six straight missed cuts. Sung Kang only played on the weekend in two of his previous five starts before emerging victories at the RBC Heritage and Corey Conners had missed the cut in five of the six events before winning the Valero Texas Open. Over the course of a season, there is only about a stroke difference between the world’s best and some random player in the top 100. Anyone can win from week to week. Conversely, any player can also have a tough week and miss the cut.

Work at having a solid process week in and week out as opposed to getting bogged down by recency bias or the ups-and-downs of the weekly golf grind. Have a solid process and use all the information available to make the best decision possible for your lineup. Good luck and, most importantly, have fun! Whether you win or lose, golf is one of the most entertaining fantasy sports to follow because you get four days of action.

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TOURNAMENT NOTES

The Charles Schwab Invitational is played at the Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth, Texas. The course is a Par 70 and measures 7,209 yards. Only Augusta National has hosted a PGA tournament longer than Colonial.

The fairways are narrow, and golfers will leave their drivers in the bag for many of the holes. The bent grass greens are small and fast.

This is a small field this week with 122 players scheduled to tee it up with the top 70 (and ties) making the cut and playing on the weekend. The MDF rule is in effect if more than 78 golfers make the initial cut. Generally speaking, there will be more 6/6 lineups this week because of the smaller field.

It is one of five invitational tournaments on the PGA Tour. The Genesis Open, Arnold Palmer Invitational, RBC Heritage, and the Memorial are the other invitationals.

Even though the tournament has gone through many name changes, it has continued to play at the Colonial Country Club since 1946. Previous title sponsors have included Dean & Deluca, Crowne Plaza, Bank of America, MasterCard, and Southwestern Bell. It had no title sponsor last year and was just called the Fort Worth Invitational.

Previous winners at Colonial (various tournament names but always the same course) that are in the field this week include Justin Rose (2018), Kevin Kisner (2017), Jordan Spieth (2016), Boo Weekley (2013), Zach Johnson (2012 & 2010), David Toms (2011), Rory Sabbatini (2007), Kenny Perry (2005 & 2003), Tom Purtzer (1991), and Keith Clearwater (1987).

This tournament has traditionally been associated with Ben Hogan since he is the only five-time winner (1946, 1947, 1952, 1953, and 1959).

COURSE FIT (Key Statistics)

Shots Gained: Approach
Colonial has traditionally been a second shot golf course. The SG: Approach stat has been far and away the best indicator of success at this course. If your approach game is good, you will finish high at Colonial. This is always an important stat but even more so at Colonial. In looking at approach statistics from the last 8, 12, 24, 36, 50 75, and 100 rounds, the 10 golfers with the most consistent second shot game are Corey Conners, Paul Casey, Justin Rose, Talor Gooch, Byeong-Hun An, Emiliano Grillo, Jason Kokrak, Brian Stuard, Russell Knox, and Shawn Stefani.

Fairways Gained
This course tends to equalize everyone’s tee shots. Being long off the tee is not necessary at Colonial. What is important is putting the ball in the fairway so that you give yourself a good second shot into the green. When looking at the players that hit the fairway more often (relative to the field and the course being played), the 10 golfers (in ranked order) that you might want to consider this week are Chez Reavie, Colt Knost, Ryan Armour, David Toms, Jim Furyk, Brian Gay, Andrew Landry, Boo Weekley, Brian Stuard, and Joel Dahmen.

Pete Dye Type Course
This course wasn’t designed by Pete Dye but it has a number of the same characteristics. The greens are small. The fairways are tight and tree lined. There are a number of doglegs and ball-striking is paramount. If you might want to consider golfers that typically play well on Pete Dye courses if you are looking for a tiebreaker in your player pool. The top 10 Pete Dye specialists (in ranked order for the last 24 rounds played) are Si Woo Kim, Jordan Spieth, Paul Casey, Daniel Berger, Ian Poulter, Francesco Molinari, Xander Schauffele, Bryson DeChambeau, Boo Weekley, and Justin Rose.

COURSE HISTORY

Jon Rahm ($12,000)
I don’t know how he has done it the last few years but he has. His game wouldn’t seem to fit this course, but Rahm has been the only player to “bomb & gouge” this course the last couple of years. He has not clubbed down like most players, but he has gotten away with it. He finished T5 last year after an inaugural runner-up finish in 2017.

Jordan Spieth ($11,400)
He has made the cut in all six starts at Colonial, including a win in 2016. He also has runner-up finishes in 2015 and 2017. Last year’s T32 was the first time out of the top 15 at this event.

Kevin Kisner ($10,500)
He may have only finished T52 last year but Kisner had three straight top-10 finishes prior to that. This stretch included a T5 in 2015 and a victory in 2017.

Zach Johnson ($9,800)
The two-time winner at Colonial is the leader in career earnings here. He has made 12 of 13 cuts, however, his only hiccup came last year. From 2010-2013, he had a streak of four straight top-four finishes. This is also when he secured his two victories.

RECENT FORM

Justin Rose ($12,200)
It feels as though he is not in very good form right now but that is not necessarily the case. Granted, he is not in the form we would expect from the world’s number three ranked golfer, but he is still playing pretty well. In the last 24 rounds, he is still first in the field for both total shots gained and fantasy scoring. He didn’t do anything particularly well last week at the PGA Championship when he finished T29. He also missed the cut at the Masters. We remember these last two majors but forget that he has won in the 2019 calendar year (Farmers Insurance Open), finished T3 at the Wells Fargo earlier this month, and was T8 at The PLAYERS. He is still capable of winning any tournament that he enters.

Jon Rahm ($12,000)
He missed his first cut in forever last week at the PGA Championship so our recency bias might tend to pass over him but his form had been really good leading up to last week. Bethpage Black was exactly the kind of course that could bring out the worst in Rahm – and it did. He imploded. However, there is no denying his talent. He came into the PGA Championship having finished in the top 10 in eight of his previous ten events. That included a T9 at the Masters. In the last 24 rounds, Justin Rose is the only golfer in this field that has gained more total strokes than has Rahm.

Matt Jones ($8,800)
In the last 24 rounds, Jones is fifth in total shots gained. He has made the cut in 10 straight PGA starts, which is behind only Rickie Fowler (21) and Graeme McDowell (11). During his streak, he hadn’t shown a lot of upside but finally grabbed a top five at the Byron Nelson.   

FAVORITE $10,000+ PLAYS 

Xander Schauffele ($11,300)
In the last 36 rounds, only Rose and Rahm have gained more total strokes than has the X-Man. I believe that Schauffele has similar win equity and you get a price discount over the two favorites. He was on the leader board last Sunday before finishing with four bogeys and dropping to a T16. He can do that sometimes. But he has also shown that he can win tournaments and compete at a high level. Though he can struggle at times, especially around the greens, Schauffele can score a lot of fantasy points in a hurry. He has a very good tee-to-green game and his ball-striking is on point. Overall, he is sixth in my DFS model. He rates out well in every category except course history because he missed the cut last year and then had a T48 in 2017. He has only been outside the top 25 twice in his last 11 events.

Paul Casey ($10,900)
In the past, Casey has been a solid cut maker. He has struggled a little bit in this area, and I am hesitant to play him but I believe that he is slightly underpriced this week as he is only the ninth most-expensive golfer in the field. Yes, he has missed the cut in three of his last nine starts, but he also has four top-four finishes in that stretch, as well. He has high upside and a game to match the course. In my custom stat model, he is ranked first, second, and second when considering the last 24, 50, and 100 rounds, respectively. As for Colonial, he has only played this course twice in the last four years with a T45 in 2015 but a T10 in 2017. The last two times that I have been high on Casey, he has missed the cut, but I am getting back on the Casey train this week as I have him third in my overall model just behind Justin Rose and Jon Rahm. That makes him quite the value.

Ian Poulter ($10,600)
I was high on him last week but ignored the little voices of reason that kept entering my mind. Actually, they should have been big voices – as in New Yorker voices. I should have seriously considered the fact that the New York fans were going to be all over him right from the start. I saw that he had performed well previously at Bethpage but that was years ago before he earned the ire of the American crowds. Note to self, don’t roster Ian Poulter in New York. I like him this week for all the same reasons I liked him last week, minus the 18 straight events he played in without trunk slamming. That streak was broken at a course that probably was too long for him and with fans that were too hostile for him. This week’s course (and fan base) should be a little better. Remember, before his missed cut last week, he had six top-10 finishes in his previous 10 events. He had been extremely consistent yet showed some upside. It also bears remembering that his last win came a little more than a year ago at the Houston Open. He is somebody that has the game for the windy Texas conditions. He didn’t play at Colonial last year and missed the cut in 2017 but made the cut in all four of his starts before 2017, including three top-15 finishes. His best finish was a T5 in 2015.

To see a more detailed breakdown of all the top-tier golfers this week, then be sure to check out the Corwin Parker’s Power Rankings for this week.

Rory Sabbatini ($10,200)
In the last 12 rounds, Scott Piercy is the only golfer in this week’s field that has gained more total strokes than Sabbatini. He is also third in fantasy scoring in his last 12 rounds played. Sabbatini has four top-20 finishes in his last six events, including two top-10 finishes. His most recent start was a T5 at the Byron Nelson. He tends to be a streaky player and right now, he is on a hot streak. He has played the weekend in nine straight events with his best finish being a T3 at the Zurich Classic a few weeks ago. He has a decent history here with four top-10 finishes and 13 made cuts out of his 18 starts. His best finish was his victory in 2007. His most recent course history has been hit or miss. He was T20 last year and T10 in 2016 but missed the cut in 2017, 2014, and 2013.

Brandt Snedeker ($10,100)
He is not going to pop off the page from a statistical standpoint and this is probably more of a feel play than anything, but I like Sneds this week coming off a T16 at the PGA Championship. He also was T5 at The PLAYERS. Those two tournaments had tough fields and tough courses. He also checks off a box for me as he has made the cut in 87% of his starts this season. I like his course history as he has made the cut in all eight previous starts at Colonial, including a runner-up in 2015.

Emiliano Grillo ($10,000)
I rarely play Grillo because I don’t like his lack of upside, nor his attitude on the golf course. However, I also try to take emotion out of DFS and let the numbers and percentages guide me. He has made the cut in more than 90% of his starts this year, including a current string of five straight. He has made the cut each of the past three years at Colonial, including a T3 last year. He has the ability to hit fairways, as well as the approach game that is perfectly suited for this course. Overall, I have him ranked fourth in my customized DFS model and at this price, he becomes a great value.

FAVORITE $9,000 PLAYS 

Scott Piercy ($9,800)
Piercy continues to play well this season as he has played the weekend in 15 of his last 16 events. Last week, he started off decently at the PGA Championship before stumbling on the weekend. He still finished a respectable T41. He came into the major on fire with a runner-up performance to Sung Kang at the Byron Nelson the week prior. Before that, he had a T13 at the Zurich Classic and a T3 at the RBC Heritage. He has six top-10 finishes in his last 16 starts. In the last 12 rounds, nobody in this field has gained more total strokes than Piercy has. As for Colonial, he missed the cut here last year but made four straight cuts prior to that, including a T7 in 2017. Overall, he has made nearly 90% of his cuts this season. His ownership shouldn’t be as high as last week since he is priced significantly higher this week.

Graeme McDowell ($9,500)
In the last 24 rounds played, G-Mac ranks 11th in total strokes gained. He has a victory back at the end of March, which was followed up by a T7 at the Valero Texas Open. His T29 this past week against a stacked field on a tough course tells us that McDowell is still playing at a high level. In this field, only Rickie Fowler has made more PGA cuts in a row than McDowell’s 11. He has consistency and upside and at a price that is below the average roster spot, he is one of the best values on the slate.

Charley Hoffman ($9,300)
After a rough start to the season, he is starting to round into form. He has six straight made cuts, including a runner-up finish at the Valero Texas Open. Historically, he has done well at Colonial, having never missed a cut in his 10 starts. Despite a consistent track record, he has not finished high as his T10 in 2015 is his only foray into the top ten. He is more of a cash game or single-entry type play as we like his consistency but not his upside.

FAVORITE $8,000 PLAYS 

Brian Stuard ($8,600)
His T32 at Colonial last year gave him three made cuts in the span of four years. The T24 in 2017 has been his best finish. That is not great, but it is solid consistency for course history. His form has also been solid in the 2019 calendar year. He has five top-20 finishes, including a T4 at the Valero Texas Open. He is 18th in total shots gained in the last 24 rounds played. He is also 12th in SG: Approach in the same time period, which is the key stat I am looking at this week. That is really good considering his price.

Kevin Streelman ($8,400)
He has made three out of his last four cuts at Colonial, with his best finish being a T18 in 2017. His form isn’t bad as he has made three straight cuts on the PGA Tour. This includes a pair of T6 finishes. The strength of his game is ball-striking and approach, which suits this course.

Vaughn Taylor ($8,200)
He is coming off back-to-back top-20 finishes, including one of those in the Fort Worth area at the Byron Nelson a few weeks ago. This gave him his fourth top-20 finish in his last nine solo starts. His upside is very limited but he does have a strong possibility of a top-20. At this price, you are just hoping for a made cut but a top 20 would return tremendous value. The top 20s have continued when Taylor has visited Colonial as he is on a streak of two such finishes here. In total, he has made three straight cuts at Colonial. In the last 36 rounds, he ranks 21st in the field for total shots gained.

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Jamy Bechler is a regular contributor to FantasyPros for NBA, NFL, and PGA. You can follow him on his DFS twitter @WinningDFS101. When he is not playing DFS, Jamy is an author, host of the “Success is a Choice” podcast, and is a leadership trainer, working with businesses and teams across the country (including the NBA). Even though he offers his advice on players and contests, after additional information and consideration, he may end up using different players and strategies than what he recommends.

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