Welcome back to the weekly risers and fallers series where I cover some of the hottest and coldest players in baseball. Find out who’s up and who’s down over the last week of games. I’ll provide input and advice on each player and what I expect from them going forward. Without further ado, let’s dive in!
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Risers
George Springer (OF – HOU)
Springer is blazing hot, hitting .517 (14-for-27), crushing five home runs, scoring 10 runs, and driving in 10 RBIs over the past week. He capped his week off with a two-homer, five-hit performance on Mother’s Day. The fantasy community was down on Springer after he managed just 22 homers in 2018, but 2019 owners are reaping the benefits after stealing him in the fifth round. He’s only 29 years old and blasted 34 home runs in 2017. Sure, he’s not running as much anymore, but he’s chipped in with four steals early this season. Although he won’t maintain a 34.9% HR/FB rate, his expected metrics match his production. I would expect Springer to provide second-round value by the end of the season with top-12 upside leading off for one of the best offensive clubs in the majors.
Josh Bell (1B – PIT)
How about the production from post-hype sleeper Josh Bell this year? He went 11-for-23 with two home runs and nine RBIs over the last seven days and is batting .400 in May. That gives him 10 home runs on the young season after just 12 in all of 2018. The knock on Bell in the past was his low launch angle. He simply hit too many ground balls. While his launch angle is up only two percent this year, his ground-ball rate is down nine percent. He’s lifting the ball more at ideal launch angles and has improved his hard-hit rate.
This adjustment from Bell has me believing in the breakout. He’s always had a good approach and solid bat-to-ball skills. At age-26, he’s putting it all together. I projected a 30-homer season from Bell in 2018. Whoops, looks like I was a year early. I doubt he can be bought on the cheap, but we are looking at a potential top-50 hitter this year.
Rafael Devers (3B – BOS)
Maybe Devers is feeling the heat with Michael Chavis raking and Dustin Pedroia returning, or he’s maturing as a young hitter. Either way, he’s been hitting everything in sight with 14 knocks over the last eight days. He has just one home run in that stretch, but he has tallied five extra-base hits and a stolen base that gives him five on the season. The steals are a bonus, and I know owners were hoping for more than two home runs from Devers at this point in the season, but they are coming. His average exit velocity and hard-hit rate are both inside the top 10% of MLB. So, he’s hitting the ball harder and also making more contact, which has cut his strikeout rate by over 10%! Devers is still too ground-ball-heavy, but several of his line drives are about to turn into long balls. Try and buy Devers from an owner who was hoping for 25+ homers because he still has a chance to reach that total while hitting .300 this year.
Hyun-Jin Ryu (SP- LAD)
Ryu took a no-hitter against a very good Nationals lineup into the eighth inning yesterday and is riding a two-start scoreless streak. What’s most impressive about Ryu’s early season success is the fact that he’s gone at least eight innings in each of the last three outings. His ERA on the season is a scant 1.73 with a 2.70 FIP, and he has walked only three batters this season! The numbers are ridiculous. His changeup is his best pitch, but his fastball that sits at 91 mph has been the key to his success. He’s allowed just a .210 wOBA off his fastball with a 31.7% strikeout rate. I’ve thrown a lot of numbers at you and while his “stuff” may not warrant a sub-2.00 ERA, he must be viewed as a top-20 pitcher going forward, if healthy. That’s the only question. He hasn’t thrown over 150 innings since 2014. He’s on pace for a career-high 209 innings this year but looks as strong as ever. I’m holding for now because he’s sure to provide value given his ADP of around 180.
Lucas Giolito (SP – CHW)
Giolito has managed to allow just one earned run with 16 strikeouts over his last two starts. I’m giving Giolito a modest boost in the rankings but am not 100% sold just yet.
Fallers
Brandon Lowe (2B/OF – TB)
After an unexpectedly hot start from Lowe, he hit .182 (4-for-22) with one home run and 11 strikeouts (47.8%) this past week. It’s time to sell Lowe, but not low. He’s still hitting .288 on the season with eight homers and three steals, so maybe another owner will buy those numbers. He’s also carrying a .405 BABIP and has a below-average 6.9% walk rate. His expected batting average is just .242, which makes sense given his Joey Gallo-esque 35.4% strikeout rate. The problem is, Lowe does not have Gallo’s power. His 20.8% swinging-strike rate is the worst in Major League Baseball, and his contact rate is second from the bottom to Gallo. He’s already seen the bench against some lefties, so his run might be coming to a close.
Jackie Bradley Jr. (OF – BOS)
Bradley Jr. has hit .150 (3-for-20) with a 34.6% strikeout rate in Boston’s last seven games. It’s funny (not funny) because those are essentially his season-long numbers. His strikeout rate is north of 30% and he’s hitting .149 without a home run this season. Ouch. I understand that his defense is fantastic in center field. In fact, he robbed Trey Mancini of a walk-off homer on Wednesday, but he should not be owned in mixed leagues. Take a look at the Statcast metrics below.
The image from 2018 is part of the reason I was high on JBJ coming into 2019. Not only have his Statcast metrics been out of whack, but his entire approach is broken. His ground-ball rate is 59.5% (up 16.4% from 2018), and his contact rate is down over five percent. The aforementioned hard contact is way down as well. His defense might keep him in the lineup for the Red Sox, but that doesn’t mean he should continue to hurt your fantasy team.
Marco Gonzales (SP – SEA)
Gonzales has struggled in two of his last three outings, two of which he failed to make it to the fifth inning. He’s been a pitcher with elite control and command but lacks swing and miss skills. He has just a 6.75 K/9 this season when the league-average has never been higher at 8.9. His strikeout rate has never been this low, and therefore he’s a liability in that department. Limiting contact becomes even more important with fewer strikeouts, and while velocity isn’t his game, he’s sitting under 89 mph through the first month and a half of the season. Try and find fantasy players who believe in his 3.18 ERA and 3.68 FIP before he falls closer to his 4.76 SIERA. Owners should try to cash in and get something for the soft-tossing starter, whose 6.9% HR/FB rate will not last.
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Max Freeze is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Max, check out his archive and follow him @FreezeStats.
