The trade chart is a useful guide as a gut check to whether any proposed deal is fair. If the values on one side of a trade significantly outweigh the other, chances are that, in a vacuum, the trade is probably unbalanced.
The thing is, trades aren’t made in a vacuum. Whether a trade works is entirely dependent on your team construction and needs at that very moment. And that principle is not limited to simply “I have an abundance of hitting and need pitching, so I’m willing to overpay from my strength to address my weakness.”
Recently, I got a strong offer for Mike Trout. And I mean strong. Per the trade chart, and just based on common sense, it was a no-brainer move. But even though Trout doesn’t have a value of 83 on the trade chart, like he would have needed to make the trade even, I still declined the offer.
And the reason was simple: there was no need for it. My team, which included several slow starters, was doing well overall and in offense in particular. And no player in baseball can offer the safety and guaranteed production that Trout can. Why rock the boat unnecessarily, particularly when the day may come where I would feel it necessary to move Trout to address other needs.
In other words, as I often preach, do not be a slave to the values or anything close to it. Every deal is different depending on where you are in the season and how your team is performing overall. Be willing to adapt and, above all, use your common sense. But, of course, always use the chart as your first reference guide.
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Tyler Glasnow sees a serious change in his trade value, as he’ll be out for 4-6 weeks after suffering a mild forearm strain. If fantasy owners knew that Glasnow would be back and good as new per that timeline, he’d have a much higher value. But, as with any injury, particularly those to pitchers, setbacks are always possible. If you can trade for Glasnow on the cheap, then certainly do it. But don’t go overboard.
As of the time of this writing, we have no information on Zack Greinke’s abdominal issue that forced him to leave Wednesday’s start against the Pirates. He could be out for weeks or miss no time at all. His trade value is nearly impossible to measure at this moment but if I were forced — and I mean truly forced — to involve Greinke in a trade at this moment, I’d bake in some injury risk but largely assume that the injury is non-severe.
Others seeing their values change with injury news include Jose Altuve, who is on the injured list with a hamstring strain, and Trea Turner, whose return appears imminent. Altuve’s value falls and Turner’s value rises accordingly.
Some slow starts should not be entirely written off any longer. Bryce Harper’s average should bounce back, but if his struggles continue, it would not be the first time fantasy owners have seen a star player perform poorly in his debut with a new team (see Beltran, Carlos). He should still be valued as an elite player, but not quite as elite as thought coming in.
Ditto for Aaron Nola, who just cannot seem to get on a sustained run of success. Valuing Nola more like Carlos Carrasco and Noah Syndergaard is hardly an indictment of his value. But given that Nola has one true year of “ace-dom” and is struggling with his control, it’s worth dropping him slightly.
And Joey Votto really hasn’t been an impact fantasy player for more than a full season. Patience is still warranted and, as you can see, Votto retains plenty of value. But the time to weigh more heavily his performance from this season has arrived.
Some risers in value include Hyun-Jin Ryu, Josh Bell, Byron Buxton, and Jorge Polanco. All four are performing far better than their career marks, but have the metrics and underlying data to back it up.
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Dan Harris is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Dan, check out his archive or follow him on Twitter @danharris80.
