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Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire Pickups: Week 7

Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire Pickups: Week 7

Injuries are undefeated. Take it from this writer, who remarked about his team’s relative fortune in avoiding any major health hazards. That was a day before Tyler Glasnow and Jose Altuve went down.

The majority of fantasy managers have had to replace one or four significant players at some point this season. Those who haven’t shouldn’t count their blessings just yet. The long season takes its toll on every fantasy squad, so everyone must continuously monitor the waiver wire for other producers to fill the void. Those needing a catcher, a closer, or simply a hot hand need not look any further for some options with consensus ownership rates below 35%, as of Monday evening.

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Priority Pickups – <35% Owned

Kyle Gibson (SP – MIN): 32% Owned
Gibson may never pitch consistently enough to trust throughout the season. For now, however, he’s worth grabbing in case his recent gains stick. Following an 11-strikeout gem at Toronto, the 31-year-old righty has amassed 40 punchouts in 38.2 innings with a 13.2% swinging-strike rate. He has tossed first-pitch strikes on 9.9% more of his pitches than last year while stymieing contact to 68.9%, a full eight ticks below his career norm.

This has only led to a 4.19 ERA, but he has relinquished just six earned runs with 28 strikeouts and three walks in his past four turns. Buoyed by a wipeout slider, he at least looks like a solid depth piece or streamer who should get plenty of savory matchups against the lackluster AL Central.

Hunter Pence (OF – TEX): 29% Owned
You really can’t predict baseball. Last year, Pence completed his fall from grace by batting .226/.256/.332. While he shockingly wrestled away a roster spot from Willie Calhoun with a standout spring, the feel-good story figured to merely end with a bench (or at best platoon) role for the 36-year-old.

He’s instead earning regular reps for the Rangers by registering a .316/.389/.658 slash line in 90 plate appearances. With seven home runs, he’s more than halfway toward reaching his highest season-long tally since 2014.

Pence is still far from perfect. Half of his batted balls are grounders, and he won’t maintain a 35.0% HR/FB rate that has fueled his prodigious power start. He also, however, is evolving in his later years. The veteran outfielder is angling for the first double-digit walk rate (11.1%) of his career, and his 93.1-mph average exit velocity is by far his best clip since Statcast began tracking it in 2015. As of Monday, his .339 expected batting average (xBA) ranks fourth behind Cody Bellinger, Jose Martinez, and J.D. Martinez. The early AL Comeback Player of the Year favorite will likely fall back to earth, but he has shown enough to roster in leagues of all sizes.

Lucas Giolito (SP – CHW): 27% Owned
Giolito got gashed to a 6.13 ERA last year, but he’s still a 24-year-old once viewed as baseball’s premier pitching prospect. He’s starting to show that promise. In three starts since returning from a hamstring injury, the righty has yielded four runs with 23 strikeouts in 19.1 innings. He has a 3.55 ERA, 3.06 FIP, and 29.5% K rate this season.

Along with extra velocity, Giolito is working more in the zone while elevating his first-pitch strike rate from 55.4 to 62.8%. He’s also relying more on a stellar changeup that has ceded a .175 wOBA with a 36.8% whiff rate. Some may dismiss his recent dominance because of the competition (Cleveland and Toronto), but he’ll face the Blue Jays again this week and plenty of more AL Central encounters down the line. This is precisely the type of jackpot ticket to purchase early in the season.

James McCann (C – CHW): 27% Owned
Even though McCann will fade eventually, catcher is too bleak to ignore a .382/.421/.607 hitter with four home runs and two steals. The hot streak has netted him more playing time over Welington Castillo, and a rise in exit velocity could at least support a batting average above his career .247 mark. Squeeze whatever value is left out of McCann.

Luke Jackson (RP – ATL): 26% Owned
Since residing here last week, Jackson notched two saves and watched A.J. Minter get optioned to Triple-A. There’s no closer controversy in Atlanta at the moment, so grab the 27-year-old righty now.

Willians Astudillo (C/3B – MIN): 22% Owned
Everyone’s favorite player is back. Out two weeks with a hamstring injury, La Tortuga returned Sunday to bat leadoff as Minnesota’s starting catcher. Playing time won’t be any easier to attain, as Mitch Garver continued to rake in his absence. The versatile Astudillo must string together opportunities across the diamond, a tougher task once Miguel Sano resurfaces.

Even without a set role, his unprecedented contact skills are too tantalizing to ignore when paired with catcher eligibility. True to form, the throwback player has batted .310 with just one strikeout and one walk in 58 plate appearances. As of Monday, only four hitters have a higher contact rate. Nelson Cruz’s wrist injury could at least create a short-term opening for Astudillo.

Corbin Martin (SP – HOU): 20% Owned
Replacing Collin McHugh in Houston’s starting rotation, Corbin Martin stockpiled nine strikeouts in his big league debut. The 23-year-old righty has earned an extended look, but the upcoming schedule is murky aside from a matchup against the White Sox next week. There’s too much buzz to wait until after this week’s bout at Boston, so those who want the neophyte need to grab him now.

Chris Martin (RP – TEX): 17% Owned
Shawn Kelley lasted mere days in Texas’ ninth-inning role before going on the IL with an infection. The next-man-up for the Rangers, Chris Martin picked up his first save on Wednesday. He now sports a 2.93 ERA, 17 strikeouts, and three walks in 15.1 innings, but don’t get too comfortable with a 32-year-old righty brandishing a career 4.75 ERA. A pedestrian 9.4% swinging-strike rate hardly supports his strikeout uptick, so this is simply a matter of chasing saves.

Steve Cishek (RP – CHC): 16% Owned
A hamstring strain banished Pedro Strop to the IL, creating even more trouble in Chicago’s bullpen. There’s no timetable for Strop’s return, and there’s no guarantee Brandon Morrow pitches at all this season. In other words, the ninth inning is vacant for the foreseeable return.

Joe Maddon didn’t name a closer, instead expressing interest in using everyone as he sees fit. Yet Cishek sealed Sunday’s save, and this wouldn’t be the first time the manager quickly jettisoned plans of a committee. The 32-year-old righty has handled the role before. His current 2.84 ERA and 9.95 K/9 are right in line with his career clips of 2.66 and 9.65. These free agents are listed in order of ownership rate, but Cishek is a far better option than Chris Martin. Jackson, however, takes first priority because of his tighter grip of the closer’s role.

Wilmer Flores (1B/2B/3B – ARI): 12% Owned
Although a popular preseason value pick, Flores didn’t possess enough of a track record to demand patience when batting .241/.299/.329 through April. Investors understandably exchanged him for a hotter hitter. See if there’s still time to reverse that decision.

The Arizona infielder has picked up the pace in May, going 14-for-38 with three doubles and a homer in 11 games. He’s now batting .282/.325/.392 this season with a .312 wOBA only four points behind last year’s finish. Much like 2018, he’s letting the BABIP gods determine his fate. His minuscule 9.5% strikeout rate makes him one of just seven players with at least 70 plate appearances to hold a single-digit mark. It’d be nice to see more power from Flores, who went deep 18 times in 362 plate appearances for the Mets in 2016, but at least the 27-year-old is finally getting a chance to play every day. Consider him more of a depth piece for deeper leagues.

Deep League Targets – <10% Owned

Austin Riley (3B – ATL): 6% Owned
Riley, hitting .300/.376/.671 in 36 Triple-A games, has already rocketed 14 homers with a diminished 19.7% strikeout rate. The Braves have begun to test him out in the outfield, a sign that they’re trying to find a big league role for a third baseman blocked by Josh Donaldson. If Ender Inciarte continues to struggle offensively (63 wRC+) and defensively (-0.8 UZR), the NL East contenders could bench him for the 22-year-old slugger. Riley’s contact woes would probably resurface in the majors, but he also has the strength to offer immediate power.

Oscar Mercado (OF – CLE): 5% Owned
On Monday, Cleveland promoted Mercado, whom I detailed further last week. He should get playing time in an abysmal outfield and can make a fantasy splash with his legs.

Felix Pena (SP – LAA): 4% Owned
Pena quietly did some nice things last year, posting a 4.18 ERA and 4.05 FIP with 85 strikeouts and 28 walks in 92.2 innings. He now wields a 3.21 ERA after tossing seven shutout frames against the Tigers on Thursday. A bit too reliant on his slider, he’s still an erratic matchup play. Yet piggybacking off an opener has worked wonders for the 29-year-old, who has 20 strikeouts and no walks in his last three outings spanning 16.1 innings.

Cole Irvin (SP – PHI): 3% Owned
Replacing the injured Vince Velasquez, Irvin flummoxed the Royals to five hits and a run over seven strong innings. Despite the dazzling debut, he’s hardly an elite prospect with immense fantasy upside. He accompanied a 2.78 ERA with just a 7.1 K/9 in four minor league seasons, so he’s better suited for NL-only formats.

Charlie Tilson (OF – CHW): 2% Owned
He’s probably just a fourth outfielder getting a look on a bad team, but Tilson already has nine hits and three steals in eight games. Despite batting .333 in Triple-A prior to his promotion, the .310 average won’t stick. (A .450 BABIP is awfully hard to sustain.) The speed, however, is real. Although a far cry from 2015’s 46 steals, he swiped a dozen bags last year and three more in 25 minor league games this season. Those who need stolen bases can grab him for a short-term boost in AL-only and 15-team mixed leagues.

Aledmys Diaz (2B/SS – HOU): 1% Owned
Diaz will get more playing time while Altuve nurses a strained hamstring. While the middle infielder has never come close to matching the 132 wRC+ from his rookie campaign in 2016, he still delivered 18 homers and a 102 wRC+ in 452 plate appearances for the Blue Jays last year. He has filled in nicely so far, belting a grand slam on Saturday with two more hits and RBIs each on Sunday and another long ball Monday night.

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Andrew Gould is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive and follow him @andrewgould4.

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