One of the best in the industry, Paul Sporer, put together a list of pitcher selection changes. For his podcast on the changes, go here. I’ll take a deeper look at a couple of pitchers who have had a drastic change in performance based on alterations in pitch mix. While FanGraphs released that podcast on April 24, pitchers have had just one or two additional starts between now and then, meaning that the initial data presented is useful for our purposes. I used Baseball Savant and FanGraphs to get the updated results.

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Fastballs

Noah Syndergaard (NYM)
Both FanGraphs and Baseball Savant have Thor using his four-seamer more (five percent) and his sinker less (six percent). Grouping these together, Syndergaard is currently sitting at a 60.5% fastball usage, which ranks 15th in all of baseball. He was due for positive regression, which came to fruition in his complete-game shutout this past week against the Reds. His four-seamer has resulted in a slugging percentage of .395, but his expected slugging percentage is just .275. While I don’t expect Syndergaard to throw more complete-game shutouts (at least, not most of the time), it’s safe to say that he is back on the right track, and throwing his sinker less (.443 xSLG) is a good idea. To make the jump into a top-five pitcher, he may have to keep weaning off that sinker and look toward his slider and changeup, both of which have an xwOBA below .250.

Blake Snell (TB)
If only he was wearing boots of steel after his shower. Off to a great start, Snell has been rusty in his return from the IL. He has dropped his fastball usage by nine percent this year, and in turn has severely increased his curveball usage. Snell has successfully induced hitters to swing at balls, which is why he’s throwing the curveball more. The majority of his curves end up below the zone, garnering a ridiculous 54.4% swinging strike rate and 27.4% putaway rate. Assuming Snell is just rusty and not still recovering from his injury, he should make another run at the AL Cy Young. It’s not fair for opponents that he decided to increase the usage of his best pitch.

Jameson Taillon (PIT)
Beginning last year, much has been made of Taillon’s new slider, and he is indeed throwing it more in 2019. To offset the 12.5% increase in slider usage, he has thrown his fastball eight percent less of the time and has now thrown his slider more often than his fastball. Taillon is able to throw his slider to all quadrants of the strike zone, and it is performing even better than last year (.250 xBA and .397 xSLG on the slider in 2019, compared to .280 and .446 in 2018). With Taillon injured, the owner in your league would probably be happy to trade him. You can buy low, as his terribly unlucky 52.1% strand rate should normalize when he returns. Just know that you’ll be waiting at least a month before he comes back.

Marcus Stroman (TOR)
Stroman has undergone a significant change in his pitch arsenal, flip-flopping more than Shawn Hunter did when he ran for class president in Boy Meets World. Much like Dan Harris and his ’80s-themed podcast references, I’m hoping this audience remembers how great ’90s TV shows were. Anyway… he is throwing his sinker over eight percent less of the time, his slider 16 percent more of the time — maybe he and Taillon met through mutual friend Chris Archer? — and has essentially tossed out his curveball.

His slider is on absolute fire, producing a 40% whiff rate and .121 batting average against, along with a .152 slugging percentage. The underlying metrics behind these rates prove that his success is earned. Those who took a gamble on Stroman are being rewarded handsomely.

Breaking Balls

Joe Musgrove (PIT)
Musgrove has dropped his cutter usage to just 4.6% (15.4% last year), and in turn has increased his slider and curveball usage. Much like Taillon and Stroman, Musgrove’s slider is about to exceed his fastball usage. His slider has been money, garnering a .163 batting average against, .209 slugging percentage (same as his xSLG), and a 39% whiff rate. He did blow up in his last start, which could make for a decent buy-low opportunity. His curveball has been a great complementary piece, but the sample size is too small to come to a conclusion on it. Still, getting away from the fastball, despite it being a good pitch last year (5.1 pVAL), is paying dividends.

Robbie Ray (ARI)
Much like Stroman, Ray has diversified his arsenal in 2019. His four-seamer and curveball usage are down, and he has thrown more sinkers and sliders. Dizzy yet? Rather than bore you to death and analyze each pitch separately, we can do this in a much quicker way. See below:

• Four-seamer: Similar effectiveness as last year
• Sinker: New pitch, and the sample size is not large enough to reach a conclusion
• Slider: Worse than last year
• Curveball: Much worse than last year — good thing he’s throwing it less

No matter what Ray throws, it always seems that he will be a high-strikeout, high-walk pitcher. Ray’s K rate is down from last year, and I am not interested in acquiring him until the sample size on his vast array of pitches grows larger and more effective.

Tyler Glasnow (TB)
An AL Cy Young Award candidate, Glasnow’s change in pitch mix has worked out extremely well. His fastball usage is at 64.1%, down more than six percent from last year. The offset is to his curveball, which is up 14 percent year over year. His four-seamer has been decent this year (.230 xBA, .381 xSLG), but the curveball is the standout offering. He’s held batters to a .193 batting average with a ridiculous .132 xBA. Heck, the xSLG is just .159. The 40% whiff rate, 33% putaway rate, and a spin rate in the 93rd percentile are certainly helping matters.

The interesting thing about this is that Glasnow has dropped his slider from his arsenal despite holding hitters to a .074 batting average. Despite the greatness that has reigned, his 10.8% swinging-strike rate does not support his 28.8% K rate. Eventually, hitters might solve Glasnow’s two pitches (he has thrown a changeup just 5.3% of the time), so I wouldn’t blame you for trying to sell high. But, you need to get a great offer — like a second-round pick.

Trevor Bauer (CLE)
Bauer’s curveball usage has dropped immensely, from 26.7% in 2018 to 14.1% in 2019. He is throwing his various fastballs more often along with his refined changeup (6.2% increase). This has yielded mixed results, as his curveball is just as effective as last year, but he has been wild with his fastballs.

He is having trouble locating his fastball, as evidenced by the .412 xwOBA he is allowing. Bauer’s spin rate on his four-seamer is also down 100 RPMs from last year, making it is slightly easier to hit. If he can find his fastball, he will return to the AL Cy Young discussion. Hold Bauer and hope that he can find his command while retaining the excellence from his other pitches.

Other

Kenta Maeda (LAD)
Maeda’s changeup usage is through the roof, up 11% from 2018. The changeup falls off to his arm side, making it a great pitch to throw just off the plate to lefties. It has generated a measly .178 batting average and .267 slugging percentage, but expected stats (.237 xBA, .292 xSLG) are higher. He is generating whiffs on it 37.5% of the time, and 26.7% of all of them are strikes. As I’ve written about previously, Maeda is a great buy-low candidate due to poor peripherals (4.66 ERA, 4.80 FIP, 4.77 xFIP, low K rate despite a solid swinging-strike rate) and still has a spot in the Dodgers’ rotation despite their plethora of options.

Masahiro Tanaka (NYY)
Tanaka is using his splitter 5.7% less of the time, with the main offset being to his slider. The slider has been working like magic, stymying hitters to the tune of a .140 batting average and .175 slugging percentage, both of which are earned. His splitter, on the other hand, is getting absolutely wrecked. With a .705 slugging percentage and .386 batting average, maybe he should just abandon the pitch altogether. The .215 expected batting average and .322 expected slugging from 2018 can give us some hope, at least.

As Sporer pointed out in the podcast, a splitter is much more likely to be barreled when it misses. This is what appears to be happening with Tanaka. When the splitter doesn’t drop, it looks like a straight changeup. Tanaka needs to keep throwing the slider more, as it is the only pitch consistently working for him right now. He has been burning fantasy owners since 2017 and can be maddening to own. It might be wise to see if anyone in your league is interested in acquiring him.

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Carmen Maiorano is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Carmen, check out his archive and follow him @cmaiorano3.