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Pitchers to Target in Deep Leagues (2019 Fantasy Baseball)

Pitchers to Target in Deep Leagues (2019 Fantasy Baseball)

For the second week in a row, I show some love to a couple of starting-pitcher eligible relievers. Both right-handed relievers have a pair of saves to their credit this year. The true starting pitchers actually kick this thing off, and one of them is sure to see his ownership skyrocket after another superb start earlier this week. The other might continue to fly under the radar thanks in large part to pitching for an awful club, but his ERA estimators are too good to ignore.

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Martin Perez (MIN): Yahoo – 41%, ESPN – 24%
Perez’s ownership rate at Yahoo would normally disqualify him from inclusion in this piece, but, as I’ve done in recent weeks, I’m taking some liberties and including him thanks to his ownership rate narrowly falling south of 25% at ESPN. The former Ranger turned some heads in the spring and generated buzz thanks to reports of increased velocity and a new addition to his pitch mix, an upper-80s cutter. Because of off days early in the year, the Twins didn’t need a fifth starter until the middle of April. Perez worked out of the bullpen for three appearances, and the southpaw struggled with control (nine walks in 8.1 innings).

Since making his first start on April 15, he’s been lights out. He’s pitched six innings or more in each of his five starts, while holding the opposition to one or no runs in four of those turns. He’s pitched back-to-back scoreless outings spanning 15.0 innings. In five starts spanning 33.0 innings, he owns a 1.64 ERA (3.02 FIP and 4.26 SIERA), 0.97 WHIP, 5.6 BB%, and 21.4 K%. The southpaw’s plate discipline numbers are rock solid, and his new cutter has been a tremendous offering. The 28-year-old has held opponents to an unbelievable -15 wRC+ on the cutter, and it’s a legitimate put-away pitch with a 15.3% SwStr rate. As Perez’s ERA estimators suggest, he’s pitching above his skis a bit. Having said that, his cutter is a difference-maker that supports a breakout with his new club. Although he’s not a must-own player in 10-team mixers, I wouldn’t fault someone for owning him in leagues that shallow. However, he is a must-own pitcher in all leagues larger than that.

Pablo Lopez (MIA): Yahoo – 11%, ESPN – 6%
The Marlins have the worst record in baseball, but even the worst teams in MLB can provide fantasy options. Lopez’s 4.03 ERA through seven starts spanning 38.0 innings isn’t bad, but it isn’t a head-turning mark. He’s primarily been undone by a poor strand rate (64.0 LOB%), though, and his ERA estimators are much stronger. Among qualified pitchers, Lopez ranks seventh in FIP (2.80), 26th in xFIP (3.69), and 23rd in SIERA (3.64). Now, those are head-turning numbers.

The 23-year-old starter boasts a 51.0 GB%, 5.8 BB%, 25.0 K%, 11.5 SwStr%, and 1.08 WHIP this season. His skills are legit, but he’s also aided by his home ballpark. Marlins Park has the lowest park factor for runs (0.826) and second lowest for homers (0.759). Wins will be tough to come by backed by Miami’s pathetic offense, but he’ll move the needle in ERA, WHIP, and strikeouts. I’d slightly prefer Perez to Lopez because of the former’s greater potential for wins with help from a good offense, but Lopez should also be rostered in all 12-team mixers and larger leagues.

Ian Kennedy (KC): Yahoo – 9%, ESPN – 3%
The Royals have five saves this year, and Kennedy’s the only pitcher with more than one. Brad Boxberger and Wily Peralta were the preseason favorites to close games, and each has a save, but both have been rocked to the tune of a 6.28 ERA and 6.75 ERA, respectively. Kansas City’s reliever ERA of 5.04 is the fifth-worst this season. Kennedy, meanwhile, has been a surprising bright spot in an otherwise bleak bullpen.

All 14 of his appearances this year have been in relief, and he’s totaled 16.1 solid innings. He has a 2.76 ERA that’s supported by a 1.61 FIP and 2.45 SIERA. The veteran righty has rattled off a 1.29 WHIP, 2.9 BB%, and 31.4 K%. At first blush, his gaudy strikeout rate is out of whack with his below-average 9.5 SwStr%. Glancing at his pitch-by-pitch numbers helps explain his high strikeout rate.

Kennedy’s four-seam fastball has just a 5.3 SwStr%, but it’s the offering he’s using in the strike zone most often, throwing the pitch in the zone 55.6% of the time thus far this year. The righty’s curve is the secret to his punchouts. It’s featuring a fantastic 19.4 SwStr% and generating a 39.5 O-Swing%. His cutter’s also been decent with a 10.3 SwStr%. Kennedy rounds out his repertoire with a changeup. He has rarely thrown the changeup this season, using it only 1.1% of the time, but it’s been an above-average offering in his career and should give him a put-away pitch to left-handed batters. The changeup had a 15.8 SwStr% last year, and he’s netted one empty swing on the three he’s thrown this season. Saves might be few and far between on a bad Royals team, and he’s a trade candidate to a team in need of bullpen help during the summer, but Kennedy should be rostered in all 12-team mixers and larger. Furthermore, save-needy gamers in shallower leagues are advised to add him as well.

Michael Lorenzen (CIN): Yahoo – 1%, ESPN – 1%
Lorenzen isn’t even my favorite SP-eligible reliever in Cincinnati’s bullpen. I discussed Robert Stephenson last week, and I still prefer him over Lorenzen if also available. Lorenzen’s no slouch, though, and he has two saves to Stephenson’s zero this year. Last year, Lorenzen totaled a 3.11 ERA that was more than a run lower than all of his ERA estimators. His ERA estimators are all still more than a run higher than his 2.04 ERA, but he’s made some positive changes.

First, his 6.8 SwStr% from 2018 has rebounded to 10.7%. Second, he’s trimmed his 9.9 BB% from last year to 7.7% this year. Third, the quality of contact against him is back to pre-2018 levels. In 2018, he allowed a career-high 33.6% hard-hit rate. This year, he has a 27.1% rate that’s much closer to his pre-2018 mark of 25.6%. Avoiding hard contact appears to be a true skill of Lorenzen’s.

The Reds are using their 27-year-old pitcher in a Brooks Kieschnick-like fashion, also utilizing his hitting, baserunning, and fielding skills late in games as a pinch-hitter, pinch-runner, and outfielder. His unique skill set could lead to some non-traditional relief usage. Lorenzen’s pitched two or more innings in four of 15 appearances this year, and he’s recorded more than three outs three more times. Cincinnati’s Swiss Army knife doesn’t appear to be a direct handcuff to closer Raisel Iglesias, but he could record a few more saves this year thanks to his versatility and high-leverage usage. Lorenzen’s lack of strikeouts is discouraging, so he profiles as a back-of-the-roster option in 14-team mixers and deeper leagues.


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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.

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