Austin Meadows continued his terror on the league this week with another 3 homers and 3 steals to go with a .467 batting average. Likewise, Hyun-Jin Ryu kept up his pace with two more ridiculous starts. As you are gearing up for Week 10, I’ve got a few things in mind for you to consider:
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#1 Keston Hiura is the pickup of the week
I’m not sure how Robinson Cano 2.0 is still just 29% owned, but you all are crazy. I understand jumping out of your seats for Michael Chavis and Nick Senzel but Austin Riley is 75% owned (more than Chavis, Senzel and even Eloy Jimenez) and Hiura is a better hitter. Sure, Riley has started the year hot but over a much larger three-year sample size, Hiura has better BA, OBP, SLG and is a superior base runner which makes it no surprise that he is the top 10 prospect between the two. If you are worried about .163 batting Travis Shaw, don’t be. The Brewers want to win and Hiura is clearly a better bet for that goal.
#2 This week’s two-start streamer isn’t who you’d guess
I will never. EVER. advise this again so buckle up. Jeff Hoffman is a great streamer this week. The Rockies are away from Coors for both of his outings and he draws the Mets and Cubs. “Wait, you are picking on the Cubs!?” You mean the Cubs who play in the league’s worst park for homers this season? Yeah, I’ll take my chances. I get it, Hoffman has been a disaster his whole career, but in away games, he has been better than average, believe it or not. Add in the fact that he has a chance at 15 Ks to go with those mediocre to good ratios and I’ll be glad to buy a ticket.
#3 You need to put in an offer for Nelson Cruz
“Cruz has 7 homers and just 22 RBIs. He is out until mid to late June. He is done.” Are you sure about that? Yeah, those are his numbers but he is still hitting the ball as well as almost anyone in the league so are you certain you want to bet against him? Cruz has seen his average exit velocity improve, his launch angle is up and you guessed it, his xwOBA is up. Cruz has an .850 or higher OPS in five straight seasons and is well on pace once again. His 51.7% hard-hit rate is just behind Christian Yelich and Cody Bellinger. Need more convincing that he is still elite?
Most balls hit 115+ mph, 2019
1. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. — 4
2-T. Joey Gallo — 2
2-T. Mike Trout — 2
2-T. Nelson Cruz — 2
2-T. Pete Alonso — 2— David Adler (@_dadler) June 1, 2019
#4 It might not be too late to buy Derek Dietrich
“Well, wouldn’t that be buying high?” It depends on how you define it. You are buying higher than he was worth when the Marlins got rid of him, sure, but you are buying him at a lower price than he is actually worth which is how I define it. Everyone knows Dietrich has 17 homers, but did you know he has done it in 100 fewer at-bats than it has taken Josh Bell to hit 18? He didn’t even play every day for the first month and he has still accomplished it. Dietrich is hitter a homer every 8.53 trips to the plate. Folks, Barry Bonds did it in every 9.10 the year he broke the record. I’m not saying Dietrich is going to break the record or even hit 40 homers but you don’t put up that kind of numbers by being a fluke. What’s more, is that Dietrich has a .195 BABIP which is unbelievably unlucky.
#5 It is time to sell Javier Baez
Last year, Baez broke out to hit 34 homers with 21 steals, 111 RBIs and 101 runs. He even batted .290 despite a 25.9% k-rate! This year, his K-rate has soared to 32% and he is still batting .303. If you are wondering how, look no further than his .403 BABIP. You didn’t read that wrong. FOUR OH THREE. So as you probably know, that is going to come tumbling down soon, and when it does, you’ll be stuck with a .270 power hitter on pace for just 6 steals. That is fine if you love 2018 Jesus Aguilar, but Baez is worth much much more on the trade market.
#6 Likewise, Jake Odorizzi is a great sell-high
Look, I love Odorizzi’s stuff and we’ve been waiting for this breakout for awhile. While he is the best version of himself we’ve ever seen, what we are seeing now isn’t sustainable. With Byron Buxton in the outfield, it makes sense that his BABIP is low, but when you pair that .238 BABIP with a league-low 5.6% HR/FB rate and a crazy 82.4% LOB rate, it becomes clear that the 2.16 ERA is going to come crashing down. If you need more convincing, his 4.46 xFIP is in the same range as Jakob Junis and Yu Darvish. Perhaps you can grab Tyler Glasnow for him.
#7 Avisail Garcia is one of the best hitters in baseball
April Fools? No, really, I’m not pulling your leg. First, his numbers are excellent with a .301 BA, 10 homers and 6 steals. That’s a 29/18 pace, or much like Javier Baez‘ 2018 near-MVP season. Frankly, though, the underlying stats are better. He joins only Joey Gallo, Pete Alonso and Josh Bell with 14 or more batted balls over 110 MPH this season, and among that group, he does it on a higher percentage of pitches than any of them. You won’t be surprised, then, to find out that his .397 xwOBA is above even Alex Bregman and Carlos Correa. Garcia is the real deal, fam.
#8 Jorge Soler might finish with 45 homers this year
Soler was on pace for 72 extra-base hits before his injury a third of the way through last season and he is right back at it this year. As of today, he is on pace for 77 to go with 111 RBIs. Frankly though, he has been unlucky in terms of homers. He has the most “no-doubter homers” in baseball, as defined by 3.9+ xSLG according to Baseball Savant’s quality of contact metrics. Even if you go down to 3.5 or 3.0 and he beats both Cody Bellinger and Pete Alonso. If that keeps up, the bad luck may finally slow down and his current 40 homer pace could become 45 by season’s end.
#9 Jordan Luplow may be the best lefty-masher you can find
Granted, you can’t play a guy like that every day, but if your league allows for it, feel free to stream him every time he draws a start versus a lefty. Even if you can’t, he might be worth keeping on your bench 75% of games just so you can play him in the other 25%. He already has 7 homers in 48 at-bats, and while that won’t keep up, he does have a .317/.402/.576/.978 line against them over his last three minor league seasons. Essentially, you are getting a star two days a week and he just happens to be free on your waiver wire.
#10 If you play dynasty, trade for a chance at next year’s 1.1 pick next year
High school sophomore, Blaze Jordan just reclassified and will now be available in the 2020 MLB Draft. If you haven’t heard of this kid, he is the real deal. Although you don’t want to compare any 16-year-old to a star like Bryce Harper, he has that kind of talent and an all-world work ethic to go with it. He has been working out with Albert Pujols and has the upside to put together a similar career. It will likely be three or four years before he joins a big league team, but when he does, you’ll be glad you traded for that 1.1 pick before everyone else hears the inevitable hype.
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