ADP Risers & Fallers in DRAFT Best Ball Leagues (2019 Fantasy Football)
The dust has settled a bit more since the NFL Draft, and rookies and their new teammates are featured prominently in the tables below. The risers and fallers aren’t limited to the middle and lower tiers. In fact, two players have risen to No. 2 at their respective positions.
|Kyler Murray (ARI)||QB17 (127.4)||QB11 (109.9)||QB8 (97.2)|
|Carson Wentz (PHI)||QB12 (114.3)||QB12 (113.9)||QB10 (102.5)|
|Dak Prescott (DAL)||QB16 (126.3)||QB17 (131.2)||QB15 (127.5)|
|Ryan Fitzpatrick (MIA)||QB26 (185.9)||QB33 (214.4)||QB31 (213.3)|
Murray’s ascension continues. He’s now a top-100 pick by ADP. Wentz has signed a monster contract extension since the last time I checked in on ADP. More importantly (and helping explain his ADP surge), his back is reportedly fully healed. Prescott’s ADP has been a bit up and down since rookies were added to the player pool. While his ADP was actually higher back on April 20, his current QB15 is his highest rank within the position in that time frame. Fitzpatrick’s ADP took a steep nosedive after the Dolphins traded for Josh Rosen during the draft, but he’s moved ahead of his new teammate (who’s included in the table below) with a better showing for their new club thus far.
|Russell Wilson (SEA)||QB8 (94.8)||QB8 (94.5)||QB9 (101.8)|
|Jameis Winston (TB)||QB9 (104.3)||QB9 (107.9)||QB11 (112.2)|
|Philip Rivers (LAC)||QB15 (124.6)||QB15 (126.4)||QB18 (137.1)|
|Kirk Cousins (MIN)||QB19 (132.1)||QB19 (136.2)||QB20 (143.3)|
|Josh Rosen (MIA)||QB33 (215.1)||QB31 (213.4)||QB33 (216.4)|
With Murray and Wentz cracking the top-10 quarterbacks, a few pigskin-slingers had to fall. Wilson’s ADP has dropped outside the top 100, and Winston fell beyond the top-10 QBs. Rivers was already a solid selection as QB15, and he’s becoming an even bigger bargain — albeit one whose ceiling is lowered by his lack of running ability.
|Christian McCaffrey (CAR)||RB4 (3.7)||RB4 (3.6)||RB2 (2.4)|
|David Johnson (ARI)||RB7 (8.4)||RB6 (6.3)||RB5 (5.4)|
|Joe Mixon (CIN)||RB10 (13.6)||RB10 (12.9)||RB8 (11.9)|
|Damien Williams (KC)||RB17 (32.5)||RB17 (30.4)||RB13 (21)|
|Marlon Mack (IND)||RB18 (32.6)||RB16 (29.5)||RB14 (25.9)|
|Kenyan Drake (MIA)||RB27 (58.5)||RB28 (56)||RB23 (46.3)|
|David Montgomery (CHI)||RB41 (109.8)||RB29 (59.8)||RB25 (47)|
|Darrell Henderson (LAR)||RB53 (152.8)||RB41 (103.4)||RB29 (65.6)|
|Ronald Jones (TB)||RB45 (125.7)||RB39 (95.8)||RB36 (84.5)|
The moving and shaking starts directly behind consensus No. 1 RB Saquon Barkley. McCaffrey leapfrogged both Ezekiel Elliott and Alvin Kamara for second-pick honors. Johnson joins new rookie teammate Murray as a climber for the second straight check-in. Williams was a stud after Kansas City cut Kareem Hunt and Spencer Ware got hurt, and concerns about a committee developing have been assuaged with offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy flatly declaring Williams the starter in Kansas City’s high-flying offense. Drake’s a big riser, climbing into the top 25 at running back and top 50 in ADP. Ditto for rookie Montgomery.
The biggest mover, however, is fellow rookie Henderson. The explosive back was being drafted outside the top-100 picks on average in the middle of May, and now he’s jumped up nearly 40 picks to a top-70 ADP. The helium in his ADP foreshadows one of the big fallers in the next section.
|Ezekiel Elliott (DAL)||RB2 (2)||RB2 (2.1)||RB2 (3.2)|
|Alvin Kamara (NO)||RB3 (3.3)||RB3 (3.2)||RB4 (3.5)|
|Todd Gurley (LAR)||RB5 (5.7)||RB8 (8.9)||RB10 (16.6)|
|Leonard Fournette (JAC)||RB14 (28.6)||RB15 (28.6)||RB17 (31.5)|
|Sony Michel (NE)||RB13 (25.3)||RB18 (30.5)||RB21 (43.7)|
|Tarik Cohen (CHI)||RB22 (43.1)||RB24 (48.9)||RB28 (58.1)|
|Derrius Guice (WAS)||RB25 (50.8)||RB27 (55)||RB33 (70.9)|
|Jerick McKinnon (SF)||RB35 (88.4)||RB36 (90.5)||RB41 (108.4)|
|Carlos Hyde (KC)||RB36 (90.1)||RB38 (94.3)||RB44 (117.7)|
Zeke and Kamara each fell one spot with CMC’s move to RB2. Gurley’s fall continues. In fact, with the exception of Fournette posting an identical ADP on April 20 and May 12 while falling one spot in the positional rankings, every back’s ADP in this table from Gurley to the end has dropped for a second straight update. Michel’s slide is unlikely to stop anytime soon. He reportedly underwent an arthroscopy on his knee, and coupled with the team spending a third-round pick on Damien Harris, there’s certainly good reason for the second-year back’s tumble. Harris wasn’t included in the table for risers, but he’s moved up from RB55 with an ADP of 169.1 in May to RB49 with an ADP of 136.3 this go-round.
|Julio Jones (ATL)||WR5 (15.1)||WR5 (15.3)||WR4 (13.6)|
|Julian Edelman (NE)||WR17 (42.8)||WR16 (42.4)||WR15 (38.2)|
|Tyler Lockett (SEA)||WR30 (72.3)||WR25 (59.8)||WR20 (49.6)|
|Robby Anderson (NYJ)||WR32 (79.4)||WR30 (75.7)||WR26 (63)|
|Tyreek Hill (KC)||WR9 (26.3)||WR36 (93.6)||WR27 (63.7)|
|Mecole Hardman (KC)||WR101 (216.5)||WR45 (111.4)||WR37 (90.8)|
|N’Keal Harry (NE)||WR60 (165.2)||WR37 (95.9)||WR33 (84)|
|Christian Kirk (ARI)||WR41 (100.6)||T-WR38 (96.1)||WR35 (86.9)|
|Keke Coutee (HOU)||WR45 (107)||WR46 (112.1)||WR40 (94.3)|
|Geronimo Allison (GB)||WR50 (130.1)||WR48 (118.2)||WR41 (94.6)|
|Marquez Valdes-Scantling (GB)||WR66 (186.4)||WR63 (173.3)||WR54 (137.8)|
Jones is the only receiver in the top 10 to move up. I’ve fawned over Anderson all offseason, and although he’s a worthy WR26, I’m not sure what’s spurring the rise. The child abuse case against Hill is no longer active. With no suspension doled out yet, gamers are speculating on him being available for all or most of this season. Hardman’s continued zoom up the ADP ladder suggests there’s possibly some handcuffing going on to offset the risk of a Hill suspension.
Kirk makes this yet another table of risers including a Cardinal. The No. 2 receiver in Green Bay’s offense has traditionally posted big numbers with Aaron Rodgers slinging the pigskin. Allison and MVS aren’t the only candidates for that gig, but they’re the two favorites for gamers to speculate on at the moment.
|Odell Beckham Jr. (CLE)||WR3 (12.4)||WR4 (14.8)||WR5 (15.5)|
|Dante Pettis (SF)||WR31 (79.1)||WR32 (82.8)||WR38 (91)|
|Corey Davis (TEN)||WR33 (80.1)||WR33 (84.3)||WR36 (90.4)|
|Sterling Shepard (NYG)||WR40 (95.7)||WR35 (88.5)||WR39 (93.8)|
|Golden Tate (NYG)||WR38 (93.5)||WR40 (96.7)||WR49 (113.7)|
|Devin Funchess (IND)||WR36 (92.2)||T-WR38 (96.1)||WR50 (119.8)|
|Emmanuel Sanders (DEN)||WR39 (95.7)||WR41 (101.3)||WR57 (147.2)|
|John Brown (BUF)||WR53 (141.4)||WR54 (143.1)||WR59 (155.4)|
|Donte Moncrief (PIT)||WR52 (132)||WR58 (157.3)||WR64 (169.5)|
|Demarcus Robinson (KC)||WR78 (209.1)||T-WR67 (185.1)||WR69 (191.6)|
OBJ has dropped one spot in each of the ADP updates. Pettis, Davis, and Funchess all project to face some competition for targets from players their respective teams drafted, and I’d guess their falls are a continued reaction to the new competition. Sanders’ ADP in late April was downright baffling, and I still wouldn’t take a wideout on the wrong side of 30 coming off of surgery to repair a ruptured Achilles suffered in December with a top-150 selection.
|George Kittle (SF)||TE3 (23.3)||TE3 (23.3)||TE2 (22.2)|
|O.J. Howard (TB)||TE6 (56.1)||TE6 (60.8)||TE4 (51.4)|
|Hunter Henry (LAC)||TE7 (62.9)||TE7 (65.1)||TE6 (61.9)|
|Delanie Walker (TEN)||TE18 (144.5)||TE20 (151.7)||TE17 (139.2)|
|Mark Andrews (BAL)||TE21 (154)||TE22 (162.4)||TE20 (152.5)|
|Zach Ertz (PHI)||TE2 (22.5)||TE2 (22.7)||TE3 (23.7)|
|Evan Engram (NYG)||TE5 (55.2)||TE4 (55.8)||TE5 (59.1)|
|Eric Ebron (IND)||TE4 (54.9)||TE5 (59.1)||TE8 (75.9)|
|T.J. Hockenson (DET)||TE16 (136.6)||TE13 (111.8)||TE15 (132.4)|
|Noah Fant (DEN)||TE22 (171.2)||TE16 (134.7)||TE22 (158.1)|
|Jimmy Graham (GB)||TE17 (138.4)||TE18 (145.9)||TE21 (155.7)|
|Austin Seferian-Jenkins (FA)||TE23 (171.6)||TE23 (171.1)||TE35 (214)|
Kittle and Ertz have flip-flopped the second spot behind Travis Kelce. Howard has ascended into a top-five TE while Ebron’s hanging on for a top-10 position. The rookie tight ends received some love shortly after the NFL Draft, but gamers are tempering expectations for Hockenson and Fant. ASJ the former Patriot doesn’t have quite the same fantasy appeal as he did as the heir apparent to Rob Gronkowski.