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By The Numbers: Jay Bruce, Khris Davis, Hunter Renfroe

By The Numbers: Jay Bruce, Khris Davis, Hunter Renfroe

Jay Bruce has the highest fly-ball rate (58.6%) of all batters with at least 60 plate appearances.

Even in 2019, the 32-year-old outfielder’s batted-ball profile is extreme. As of Wednesday, his 24.2-degree average launch angle also tops MLB’s leaderboard over new Phillies teammate Rhys Hoskins. His 140 batted balls have traveled an average of 231 feet, also first in the majors.

Nineteen of them have cleared the fences. Bruce has 14 singles, giving him an unbalanced .232/.294/.586 slash line.

In addition to hitting the ball further, the well-traveled veteran — this is the third time in four years he’ll play for two teams in a season — is also hitting them harder. With 24 barrels, he has already exceeded last year’s 22 in 143 fewer plate appearances. His exit velocity is also up to 90 mph, his highest mark since Statcast began tracking it in 2015. Another encouraging trend from his torrid start: Bruce has collected six dingers and a 170 wRC+ against fellow lefties. While he initially looked poised for a platoon when acquired by the Phillies, that’s no longer the case with Andrew McCutchen (torn ACL) out for the season. He’s not selling out entirely for pull power either, bolstering his share of balls sprayed to the opposite field from 18.4 to 27.9%.

Put it all together, and Statcast expects him to maintain a mean punch with a .555 xSLG. Keep in mind that he mustered 36 blasts over his last full season in 2017. While a slow-footed slugger can’t expect much good fortune with this type of approach, his .216 BABIP rate could rise just enough to inch closer to his career .247 batting average. Hey, that’s worked for the next guy.

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Khris Davis: .245 Batting Average
All is nearly right in the universe. If Davis collects two hits in his next seven at-bats, his batting average will narrowly round up to .247.

That’s not the category-killer it once was considering MLB is collectively hitting .248. This leads to another quandary: Is Davis still a top-shelf contributor during a season which has seen Derek Dietrich, Renato Nunez, Daniel Vogelbach, Kole Calhoun, and Hunter Pence all belt as many, if not more home runs? Even if the Oakland slugger endures steep peaks and valleys along the way, he’ll still produce close to 40 long balls despite missing time with a hip injury. That elite skill, however, has increased in supply this season.

I’ve kept him comfortably in my overall top 50 for his year-long consistency and premium power production. His past three seasons with the A’s haven’t just shared a .247 average in common; he’s led the way with 133 homers by crushing more than 40 each season. If the game’s fly-ball uptick extends all year, it’ll be tougher to pay that premium in 2020 (or midseason 2019) drafts when the likes or Jorge Soler, Miguel Sano, and Hunter Renfroe can each offer 30-plus bombs at a fraction of the cost. At least Davis is beginning to heat up with two homers and a double in his last four games. By the way, if including the subject header, this section checked in at 247 words before any edits.

Hunter Renfroe: 36 HRs since August 1, 2018
Speaking of those cheap power sources, Renfroe has deposited MLB’s second-most home runs behind Christian Yelich in 420 plate appearances since the start of last August. As of Wednesday, his .326 ISO ties some guy named Mike Trout for third among qualified hitters behind Yelich and Joey Gallo.

Most of his production has come in spurts, and he’s hitless since smashing June’s third long ball last Thursday. Such volatility, enabled by a 28% strikeout rate, has led to a .238 batting average and .290 OBP. But there’s a stat from his slash line missing there. His .589 slugging percentage is right in line with Mike Moustakas, Freddie Freeman, and has plenty of wiggle room over fellow Padres basher Franmil Reyes (.558).

There are plenty of bones to pick about his real-life worth, and his .240 wOBA (and .193 xwOBA) against breaking balls is a bulls-eye the opposition should keep targeting. Fantasy gamers can nevertheless use those warts to cheaply roster someone with legitimate 40-homer upside if given playing time. It won’t cost much, as his consensus ownership rate has stalled out at 58%.

As for his role, Renfroe has started 13 of San Diego’s last 16 games. While a prolonged slump could lead to more days in the dugout, the outfielder is “quite popular in trade discussions,” per The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal. Even if he’s merely a poor man’s Davis, it’d be a shame to let all those home runs get wasted on the waiver wire.

Billy Hamilton: 27.0% Infield-Fly Rate
Let’s take a sharp U-turn and end this power-themed article with the sport’s weakest starting position player. Going by Statcast, which classifies hard hits as balls with an exit velocity of at least 95 mph, Hamilton has baseball’s worst rate. And it’s not even close.

Rank (Min. 60 PAs) Player Hard-Hit %
327 Billy Hamilton 7.4
326 Nicky Lopez 16.0
325 Ender Inciarte 17.3
325 Joey Rickard 17.6
323 Hanser Alberto 18.8

The speedster has compiled 135 batted balls in play, and yet his 10 hard hits are the least among anyone with 60 or more batted balls. Hamilton doesn’t need to be Gallo, or even an average Statcast performer, to help in fantasy formats. However, not even The Flash can turn a pop-up into a base hit. That’s the biggest problem belying Hamilton’s nauseating .230/.307/.287 slash line. Among hitters with at least 100 plate appearances, only Garrett Hampson has a higher infield-fly rate.

Signing with the eager Royals was supposed to extend the 28-year-old a green light that would never even turn yellow. He has instead swiped 12 of 16 attempts from the basement of their batting order. At this pace, Hamilton is looking at a final steals tally closer to last season’s 34 than the 56-59 that came in each of the previous four campaigns. Investors can live with a one-act magician when that trick blows everyone away, but a dozen steals isn’t nearly enough to stomach a .230 hitter with no home runs and six RBIs — Zack Greinke is batting .286 with two homers and four RBIs — in any mixed league.

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Andrew Gould is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive and follow him @andrewgould4.

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