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We’ve got minor leaguers, a top-30 player, a deep sleeper, and a recently demoted prospect in this week’s crop of dynasty players. I continue to look into peripheral stats for all types of players to find value in buying, selling, and holding those specific guys. You must evaluate each and every player in the pool when playing in a dynasty league, not just ones on your team.
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Buy
Alex Kirilloff (1B/OF – MIN)
The number 14 prospect in FantasyPros’ Expert Consensus Rankings is off to a disappointing start to 2019. Kirilloff was aggressively assigned to Double-A Pensacola to start the season but was met with a wrist injury late in spring training. After missing the first month, he returned at the beginning of May and hit .268/.359/.402 with two home runs before landing on the injured list again this week. The injury remains undisclosed at this point, but it shouldn’t affect his long-term outlook.
Kirilloff’s slow start at the plate can be attributed to a couple of simple things that make him a buy-low option. Wrist injuries can be very difficult for hitters to return from and typically cause reduced production. It’s also important to note the position change he’s beginning in 2019. Moving down the defensive spectrum from the outfield to first base doesn’t seem like a big deal, but this is still a 21-year-old learning a new position. See if you can buy this future superstar on the cheap in your dynasty leagues due to his injuries and slow start.
Harold Ramirez (OF – MIA)
Ramirez was widely unknown entering 2019, and I’m betting he remains that way to most. He signed with the Marlins this offseason as a minor league free agent after spending seven years in the minors with the Pirates and Blue Jays. I find it interesting that Toronto gave up on him following a .320/.365/.471 slash line with 11 homers and 16 steals in Double-A last year. Granted, it was his third season at the level, but I still think he was overlooked. In 31 Triple-A games for Miami this year, he slashed .355/.408/.591 with four home runs, showing that there’s definitely a bit of pop in this bat.
Ramirez has done nothing but rake since his call to the big leagues and seems to have a Marlins’ outfield spot locked down for the time being. He’s getting quite fortunate on balls in play, but his plus contact skills should provide a soft landing spot for his batting average. He’s still just 24 years old and has the kind of contact abilities that stick in MLB. If you’re in a deep dynasty league, go ahead and add him.
Sell
Adalberto Mondesi (SS – KC)
It’s hard to believe that Mondesi is just 23 years old, but he’s already racked up 68 steals and 23 home runs in just 206 games. He’s a unicorn in today’s game who offers elite speed and has the pop to be a significant contributor in the power categories. So why am I advising you to sell him now? It’s quite simple really: I just don’t believe. The numbers show that this kind of production isn’t sustainable in the long run.
He has the speed to steal 50+ bases a year and the power to hit 20 home runs in a season. I just don’t see any way he continues to hit over .250. His expected batting average using Statcast data on Baseball Savant is down at .246, 39 points lower than his actual average. He simply strikes out too much and walks too rarely for me to buy into this profile. Mondesi is still a very valuable dynasty asset, but I’d advise using that value to bring back a top hitter that isn’t so volatile.
Alex Verdugo (OF – LAD)
Verdugo is enjoying a nice breakout in his first full season with the Dodgers, slashing .305/.355/.479 with four home runs and three steals. That all sounds nice for a prospect ranked number 72 by FantasyPros’ ECR coming into the season, but I’m being cautious. I’m leery of the power production that Verdugo will put up in the near future, as he’s managed only four home runs with this juiced baseball. The most home runs he’s ever hit in a professional season was 13 in 2016 (Double-A), so it’s not like there are any past power stats to offer encouragement. While he’s still a useful fantasy player, you can extract some value from his prospect pedigree and hot start to the season. I don’t see Verdugo as much more than an empty batting-average play, but surely someone in your league will want to bet on his future.
Hold
Keston Hiura (2B – MIL)
Much to the dismay of Brewers fans and fantasy owners alike, Milwaukee sent Hiura back down to Triple-A following a 17-game MLB cameo in which he slashed .281/.333/.531 with five home runs. In deep dynasty leagues, it’s an easy decision to hold on to Hiura, but it’s a bit tougher if you don’t have a deep bench or minor league spots. I’m of the belief that Hiura’s stay in Triple-A will be a short one. He is just too talented to sit in the minors while the Brewers are in the middle of a division race. He’ll be back soon and is worth a bench spot in any dynasty league. Hiura is going to be a star hitter at second base for many years to come in Milwaukee. Make sure you don’t lose him over a two-week Triple-A stint.
Matt Boyd (SP – DET)
Boyd has been one of the best starting pitchers in baseball this season, but he’s still not getting the respect he deserves. To be fair, he’s ranked as the 21st starting pitcher and 111th overall player in FantasyPros’ ECR for the rest of the season. Those are solid rankings that prove he’s a very valuable asset. I just value him even higher. He’s currently got a 3.01 ERA and 30.8% strikeout rate in 77.2 innings in 2019, which makes him look like a stud to even the most casual of fans.
Why is he not being ranked as such? It’s directly related to a career 4.77 ERA (including this season’s breakout). Boyd worked hard to get in better shape for this season and has increased his fastball velocity significantly. He’s also increased his strikeout rate by a ridiculous eight percent over last season. His 2.75 FIP is actually lower than his ERA, so this isn’t a fluke. I’m all systems go with Boyd and wouldn’t sell high on him at all. He’s a special pitcher who is just 28 years old. Make someone shoot for the moon before unloading him.
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