Welcome back to another edition of the weekly risers and fallers, fantasy baseball edition. In this series, I cover some of baseball’s biggest movers up or down the rankings. I’ll perform semi-deep dives to explain why each one of these players is on the rise or whose value is dropping like a rock. As I was researching for this piece, I kept looking at Jose Ramirez and Michael Chavis, whom I covered under the “fallers” section over the last few weeks. To this point, both continue to struggle mightily and aren’t showing any signs of pulling themselves out. My analysis of players is fluid and if I see evidence of improvements, I am more than willing to change my opinion. Unfortunately, I have yet to see any evidence from either player. Let’s start with the risers for this week.
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Risers
Brian Dozier (2B – WAS)
Dozier might not be cooked after all! Since May 17, Dozier is batting .318 with five home runs and 16 RBIs. In addition, he’s sporting an incredibly impressive .536 wOBA this month. It’s undoubtedly been a slow start to the season, but we have to remember Dozier played through a severe bone bruise to his right knee last season. Given his pull-heavy approach, he struggled to turn on baseballs as he’s accustomed to. Over the last several weeks, he’s improved in most facets of his offensive game.
His ground-ball rate is down nearly 30% while he’s increased his hard-hit rate and chased outside the zone less often. Let’s not forget, when healthy, Dozier is a second-half monster. In the first half of 2016 and 2017, he hit under .250 with just 27 homers. In the second half of those two seasons, however, he hit nearly .300 with a whopping 49 homers. He’s still just 32 years old and could provide fantasy owners solid value through the season’s remaining three to four months.
Mike Moustakas (2B/3B – MIL)
Moustakas has been a consistent power contributor this season and batted .333 (8-for-24) with four home runs this past week. Oh, and by the way, he has mashed nine bombs in his last 15 games. Also of note, he has struck out just three times in his last 31 plate appearances. Fundamentally, Moustakas is the same type of hitter he’s always been, but two main factors have helped propel him to new heights. When he was traded to the Brewers, I tweeted an overlay of his fly balls over Miller Park. Over the short term last year, he didn’t see the benefits. However, this year, Moose is on pace for 45 home runs. Perhaps the properties of the current ball have played a role, and moving from Kauffman Stadium to Miller Park is a huge upgrade for power. The second factor is, of course, hitting behind the 2018 NL MVP in Christian Yelich. Drafted well after pick 100, owners have stolen a potential top-50 asset in Moustakas.
Brandon Woodruff (SP – MIL)
Woodruff’s last three starts may not look like they have yielded elite level results, but he’s been very efficient this year with a 22.9% K-BB rate. He’s sandwiched two 10-strikeout performances between a six-run drubbing against the Pirates. The outcome against the Pirates was not indicative of how well he pitched. He struck out five batters in four innings and was unlucky with a .588 BABIP and a strand rate of just over 50%. I trust the 2.48 FIP more than the results.
His expected wOBA ranks 30th among pitchers who have faced at least 200 batters. That’s better than Clayton Kershaw and Jose Berrios. Woodruff also has a better strikeout rate (29.5%) than those two aces. He anchors his success with his 96-mph fastball that has provided a swinging-strike rate of 12.2% (three percent better than league-average). As a result, his strikeout rate is 40% on his fastball, and the metrics are just as strong with just a 63 wRC+. I trust Woodruff to succeed going forward because an elite fastball is a strong foundation to build on.
Pablo Lopez (SP – MIA)
Lopez has been fantastic over his last three starts with a 1.00 ERA, 0.78 WHIP, and 19 strikeouts in 18 innings pitched. Unfortunately, he’s only tallied one win across those fine performances thanks to the Marlins’ poor bullpen. Their relievers will likely remain a weakness, and the bats are projected to be substandard. That said, his skills are more than strong enough to own in 12-team mixed leagues, and he’s available in 86% of Yahoo and ESPN leagues. Prior to Sunday’s game, he had a .300 expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) which is sure to go down after his start against the Braves.
If you’re concerned about his 4.26 ERA, don’t be. The Mets demolished him for 10 runs a month ago. I know we aren’t in the business of taking stats away, but if we removed that start, as noted by Baseball HQ’s Ryan Bloomfield, his ERA and WHIP would be sparkling at 3.10 and 0.99, respectively. I’m not trying to sell Lopez as some kind of ace the rest of the season, but he does have staying power. His arsenal is equipped with three pitches (fastball, changeup, and curveball) that have a 25% or better strikeout rate. Wins will be difficult to come by, but he should provide solid ratios, an above-average strikeout rate, and gets a boost in quality starts leagues with six in his last nine games.
Fallers
Yasiel Puig (OF – CIN)
At what point do we call Puig a bust for this season? The move to Cincinnati seemed like a great one in terms of his potential power output. He was often drafted around 60th overall, but the Razzball Player Rater has Puig’s 2019 value currently $6.70, or 167th overall. It’s not all gray skies though; his 11 home runs and nine stolen bases put him on pace for 28 homers and 23 steals. That is right in line with preseason expectations, but what about the batting average? It currently sits just above the Mendoza line at .207. Ouch. A .230 BABIP is to blame. Maybe you think that should rise, but his expected BABIP is right near the same area. His quality of contact is down and he’s hitting more pop-ups and fly balls. While we should start seeing a few more home runs, his batting average should remain low.
It’s not just the quality of contact, but his overall plate discipline. Puig is much more aggressive, swinging at more pitches both inside and outside the zone. However, he’s making less contact on in-zone pitches, a decrease of over nine percent from last year, and his swinging-strike rate (SwStr%) has ballooned to 16.1%. That’s the reason for both a career-high strikeout rate (25.6%) and a career-low walk rate (5.5%). Puig is talented and can turn his season around, but it will take more than just one adjustment. The fact that he has provided production in both power and speed to date is somewhat remarkable. If he can flip the switch, he might be a top-60 player the rest of the way. I’m still skeptical but would acquire him for 50 cents of his draft-day price.
Matt Carpenter (1B/3B – STL)
I preached staying away from Carpenter this offseason after a career year in 2018 at age 32. He has struggled with a 38.9% strikeout rate and league-average walk rate (8.3%) over the last two weeks. His overall approach and plate discipline, however, are still right in line with his career numbers. With the acquisition of Paul Goldschmidt, Carpenter has played third base almost exclusively this year. He has dealt with nagging back and shoulder injuries over the last few years, and third base is far more demanding physically than first base. I’m concerned he may be harboring an injury which has impacted his quality of contact.
His expected BABIP is actually below his current .273, and his hard-hit and barrel rates are back to where they were in 2017. Even when he struggled through the start of 2018, his batted-ball metrics remained strong. That is not the case this year. All of his expected metrics have him in the bottom third of the league compared to top 25% last season. If he does have a nagging injury, owners should hope he hits the injured list so he can get right. Otherwise, this may be who he is the rest of the season.
Masahiro Tanaka (SP – NYY)
The last time we saw the league’s home run rate elevated like it is this year, Tanaka had a 4.74 ERA and gave up 35 long balls. He’s been able to suppress home runs so far this year, on pace for just 25, but his luck may be shifting. Tanaka typically underperforms based on the ERA estimators, but he’s doing the opposite this year. Although he carries a strong 3.42 ERA, his FIP (4.09), xFIP (4.10), and SIERA (4.24) tell a different story. His average exit velocity against on line drives and fly balls (LD/FB EV) is in the top 25% at 94.2 mph. The home run rate should rise based on that metric and given his home run friendly home park.
He’s also seen an increase in contact rate and a dip in swings and misses. As a result, his strikeout rate has dropped 3.6% from last season. That’s largely due to his struggles with the split-finger fastball. It has long been Tanaka’s go-to putaway pitch but now has just a 12.1% strikeout rate compared to his career 29.5% strikeout rate. As the weather warms up, I forsee Tanaka’s ERA following suit. Without elite strikeout numbers to back him up, I don’t view Tanaka as a top-30 starter the rest of the way.
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Max Freeze is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Max, check out his archive and follow him @FreezeStats.
