A pair of teammates whom I’ve had reservations about touting finally get the nod this week. They’re joined by another pair of teammates, one of whom is returning from last week’s piece.
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Tanner Roark (CIN): Yahoo – 24%, ESPN – 13%
It’s tough to get excited about a pitcher who pitches his home games at Great American “Small” Park. GABP has the ninth highest park factor for runs (1.045) and fourth highest for homers (1.205). Having said that, Roark is one of two widely available members of the Reds’ rotation who’s demonstrated enough pitching skills to stream in favorable matchups in 12-team mixers and roster outright in 14-team or deeper mixed leagues.
The 32-year-old veteran has been part of a remarkable turnaround for Cincinnati’s starting pitching woes of recent years. He’s settled into a nice groove in his first season with the Reds. In six starts spanning 33.2 innings since the start of May, he has a 2.94 ERA that’s a bit lucky. However, his 3.82 SIERA during that stretch, per FanGraphs, is rosterable. He’s tallied a solid 1.16 WHIP, and his outstanding 27.3 K% during that span is backed up by an 11.4 SwStr%. Roark hasn’t simply been feasting on cupcakes during that run, either. He’s faced the Cubs twice (seventh with a 110 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers this year) and Dodgers (first with a 122 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers). He’ll look to keep things rolling in his next start on Friday in Philadelphia. It’s a potentially challenging matchup, but the Phillies rank just 19th in wRC+ (92) against righties this year, and they lost Andrew McCutchen for the season.
Tyler Mahle (CIN): Yahoo – 14%, ESPN – 7%
For the last three weeks, I’ve kept tabs on Mahle’s ownership but have been unable to pull the trigger on suggesting him in this piece. Matchups against the Dodgers in GABP and at Wrigley against the Cubs scared me away. Additionally, his plate discipline numbers left a bit to be desired. He did get knocked around by the Cubs, and his ownership rate remains below 15% at both Yahoo and ESPN, so kudos to me for not suggesting him, I suppose. However, he bounced back from that rough start to pitch a respectable game at Washington.
The primary reason I’ve warmed up to Mahle is a statistical nugget Eno Sarris of The Athletic dropped on Twitter at the end of last month. For those who didn’t click the link, Mahle ranked third in Command+, per Stats by STATS, among pitchers who’d thrown a minimum of 750 pitches as of May 31. For those unfamiliar with Command+, Sarris explained to a Twitter user asking about the statistic that it measures how consistently a pitcher hits their spots. The list is an interesting one, and while not everyone on it is a fantasy option, Mahle keeps good company on the whole.
Among starters who’ve pitched a minimum of 10 innings since May 1, Mahle ranks 22nd in xFIP (3.38), 22nd in strikeout rate (29.3%), and tied with Lucas Giolito for 15th in SIERA (3.35). He’s walked only 5.0% of the batters he’s faced in six starts spanning 33.1 innings, and he’s also rattled off a stellar 1.14 WHIP. His strikeout rate during that stretch is high relative to his 10.5 SwStr%, but he’s tallied an 11.0 SwStr% in four of his six starts. Mahle has a lower ownership rate at both Yahoo and ESPN than his previously highlighted teammate, but I’d prefer the 24-year-old righty to Roark if both are available. Mahle’s worth adding in leagues as shallow as 12-team mixers.
Josh James (HOU): Yahoo – 10%, ESPN – 6%
Framber Valdez (HOU): Yahoo – 0%, ESPN – 0%
Corbin Martin’s short start Monday was the final straw for his first taste of big-league coffee. The Astros optioned him to the minors, leaving a rotation opening for a mouth-watering matchup with the Orioles in Houston on Saturday. Last week, I gave James the nod and wrote him up prior to a semi-messy, multi-inning relief appearance in which he “earned” a win against the Cubs on May 28. He’s since earned another win in a pair of perfect innings in which he also struck out three A’s in Oakland on June 2. James’ stuff is electric, and he could work as an opener or starter with a pitch limit down the line. He’s worth a speculative add in leagues as shallow as 12-team mixers to see how things shake out, but he’s also worth a hold in 14-team leagues or deeper as a multi-inning reliever if the Astros opt to stick with another starting option.
According to Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle, Valdez will get the first crack at joining Houston’s rotation. The young lefty was in the rotation competition in the spring, and he won Monday’s contest by twirling four innings of scoreless ball in relief of Martin. In 26 innings spread across 14 relief appearances this year, Valdez has a 3.12 ERA that’s in stark contrast to his 4.63 SIERA. However, his ERA isn’t as out of whack with his 3.64 FIP, and his home-run luck might not be as lucky as it seems since he’s also done a great job of limiting taters throughout his minor-league career. Valdez has a 53.3% GB rate this year and a 62.7 GB% in his 63 big league innings pitched to date. He’s cut down a troubling 15.6% walk rate from 2018 to a still-high 11.7% mark this year, but further gains could be in order if he keeps pounding the zone with strike one regularly (64.9 F-Strike% this year compared to a league average of 60.8%).
Valdez’s ceiling isn’t as dreamy as James’, but he’s worth a speculative add in 14-team mixed leagues. Minute Maid Park in Houston is a pitcher-friendly venue for all of the Astros’ hurlers with the third lowest park factor for runs (0.866) and a homer-suppressing park factor for dingers of just 0.945, providing Valdez home streamer appeal even in shallower leagues.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
