In a year that already appears to be dominated by the RBs at the top of the board, I was really looking forward to jumping into this mock draft to see the full effects of this trend in PPR leagues. If you checked out my most recent standard-scoring mock draft, or follow me on twitter (@kyleFFfellas), then you already know my qualms with the full PPR format. But regardless, it’s a scoring type that many people use and can alter the way owners should approach their drafts. And to be honest, as much as “poke the PPR bear” for fun, it shouldn’t matter what format or scoring type you use, as long as you’re having fun!
Now, if you’re familiar with any of my other recent mock drafts, then you already know the format of this article. But for those of you checking in for the first time, this may be a little different than other mock drafts you’ll find out there. Unlike other article formats that might only summarize the draft, or give hindsight analysis, I like to share a peek behind the curtain as I make each selection to share my thinking in the moment. While there are benefits at looking back and learning from how a draft played out, when you’re sitting down to an actual draft, being comfortable with the pick-by-pick decisions is really where fantasy owners can get an edge on their league mates.
Scoring and Roster Construction: PPR – one QB, two RBs, two WRs, one TE, one flex (RB/WR/TE), and six bench spots.
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1.05 – Davante Adams (WR – GB)
Even in this full PPR format, the first four picks were all RBs which leaves me with my choice of the litter at WR. I think this will be an interesting spot to be in this season, as I’m not sure if there is a consensus WR1 this year among the industry. Personally, I’m rolling with Davante Adams as the top WR in my rankings so he’s my selection here. While I know DeAndre Hopkins has been a monster in his own right and should be in the discussion at this pick, Adams’ 2018 season could be just the beginning of an amazing run as Aaron Rodgers‘ unquestioned top target. Adams was just one target behind Julio Jones for the league lead last year and with the Packers not adding much else to their WR group, I think Adams is in line for a similar workload again. Add in the fact that Adams has put-up double-digit TDs in each of the last three seasons, while being in the top three in red zone targets during the same span. While TDs can be hard to predict, I think Adams has shown fantasy owners that he has a very solid floor in this area.
2.08 – Antonio Brown (WR – OAK)
With a later pick in Round 2, I’m facing a tough decision. Joe Mixon came off the board just two picks ahead of me, and I’m not in love with what’s left at RB in this spot. For me this selection comes down to two players, Antonio Brown and Zach Ertz. I’m still a believer in Brown this season, and what I need to decide is if I’m willing to pay the high price tag for Ertz in Round 2. Yes, Ertz had a record 116 receptions on 156 targets last year, but is that repeatable? Ertz had never put up more than 80 receptions before 2018, so while I think he will still be a difference maker at the position, the price tag is just too high. Even though Antonio Brown has a new home in Oakland this year, I still think he’ll contend for 150+ targets and 100+ catches in 2019 as the featured WR in the Oakland offense.
3.05 – Adam Thielen (WR – MIN)
At this point in the draft with 28 selections in the books, I am shocked by the value still here at WR, especially in a full PPR format. There are a lot of names I still like here at the position with only nine WRs off the board. As I make this selection, I find myself reevaluating my rankings just a bit. When originally facing the decision of T.Y Hilton, A.J. Green, and Adam Thielen, I expected to smash the draft button on Hilton to fill my flex position and move on. However, after more consideration, I think Thielen is the correct pick in this format. I love Hilton and would take him ahead of Thielen in standard and 0.5 PPR but in full PPR you have to consider that Hilton could see 30-40 less targets than Thielen this season. Thielen did slump a bit down the stretch, but we’ve seen him put up 140 or more targets each of the past two seasons, including 155 last year. So now through three rounds of this draft, I haven’t taken an RB, but I do have three WRs that were all top six in targets in 2018.
4.08 – Devonta Freeman (RB – ATL)
It is a long wait when you’re without an RB, and you’re hoping a guy you’re still comfortable with drops to you. Luckily for me, I got my wish. I seem to keep ending up with Freeman a lot this offseason in this Round 4 range, so apparently, I’m higher on him than most. While I do understand the injury history, the Falcons just let Tevin Coleman leave town, they didn’t add anyone of significance at the position, and they spent draft capital on their offensive line. I feel comfortable with how this turned out. For those of you who might like to play the hindsight game, I could have used my previous pick on Marlon Mack or Damien Williams in Round 3 and then had my choice of any of the Rams WRs here in Round 4, but I think I prefer this result.
5.05 – Kerryon Johnson (RB – DET)
With only one RB on my roster, I was already expecting to lean toward that position here in Round 5. Since I started with three WRs, the other position I was considering was TE as Evan Engram is still on the board. While I do like Engram quite a bit, I feel like I need to address the RB position. Personally, I’m not as high as some on Johnson, and while I did like what I saw from him when he was on the field, the Lions seemed hesitant to give him a heavy workload. One thing that I think could help provide a decent floor for Johnson is his 32 receptions in just 10 games as a rookie. I think that a 50 reception pace might help offset a slightly lower number of attempts on the ground that most “starting” RBs will see.
6.08 – James White (RB – NE)
Now we all know what James White‘s role is in this Patriots offense, but the real question for me is whether he can repeat the rushing totals from last season. While 94 attempts for 425 yards and five TDs doesn’t sound like a lot, but it needs to be considered that his combined rushing production in his previous four years in New England was just 113/413/2. When you factor in that White also had a career-high in targets, catches, and receiving TDs, most would point toward some obvious regression from his RB7 finish in PPR. While I tend to agree that it’s unlikely that White puts up the same rushing production, especially the TDs, he’s about as safe as it comes at the position at this point in the draft after averaging 67 receptions over the past three seasons.
7.05 – Mark Ingram (RB – BAL)
Okay, four RBs in a row after starting WR-WR-WR does feel odd, but I love Ingram’s upside here in Round 7. Even though Ingram has left a high-powered offense to move into a Baltimore offense with Lamar Jackson, we did see good production from this spot last year. In seven games with Lamar Jackson under center, Gus Edwards was able to average 93.4 rushing yards per game during that stretch. Based on that average, that would have been a 16 game pace of 1,494 rushing yards which would have been 60 more yards than any other RB in the league last season. Now, the negative to Edwards’ production was that he only saw one reception during that span. However, I think this could be attributed more to Edwards’ ability rather than the idea that they won’t throw to the RB. Ingram has shown to be a solid pass catcher, so I think he’ll see plenty of opportunities this year for the Ravens.
8.08 – Dante Pettis (WR – SF)
At #92 overall, I finally pick up my fourth WR, and a player I was already considering in Round 7, Dante Pettis. I almost ended up with five RBs in a row with this pick as Tevin Coleman is still on the board, but I think it’s time to look for some WR depth. Pettis did take a while to get going in his rookie season, and while I know it’s a small sample size, in weeks 10-15, Pettis did average 15.96 PPR points with Nick Mullens at QB. Give Pettis more opportunities with Jimmy Garropollo this year, and I think Pettis could be a nice value for fantasy owners.
9.05 – Tevin Coleman (RB – SF)
I guess I’ll be the high guy on Coleman too. I understand it’s a crowded backfield in San Francisco, but Coleman was the guy that the 49ers paid this offseason, and he has experience in Kyle Shanahan’s offense. The two worked together for two seasons in Atlanta, including 2016, a season that Coleman put up 941 total yards and 11 TDs on just 151 total touches. At #101 overall, I just couldn’t turn down the value at this pick. If the backfield does end up being too crowded, then maybe he busts, but we have seen this guy produce on a limited workload in the past.
10.08 – DaeSean Hamilton (WR – DEN)
Hamilton is another young player that took a while to get going in his rookie season. After only totaling eight targets through week 13 due to injuries and lack of opportunities, Hamilton finished the year strong with 38 targets in his final four games. Those targets didn’t lead to many yards, but in this format, I think Hamilton is a nice flyer to see if those targets continue to come his way with Joe Flacco now in town.
11.05 – Vance McDonald (TE – PIT)
This one almost feels like stealing… see what I did there? With 11 TEs off the board already, I was the last team to address the position. While we’ve seen a track record of McDonald unable to stay on the field, he did post a career-high 15 games in 2018. Now, the biggest reason I’m comfortable jumping on the McDonald train is the potential increase in targets. As we know, Antonio Brown is leaving 168 targets behind, and while I think the Steelers might throw a little less than last year, I can still see McDonald getting 100-110 targets this season if he stays healthy.
12.08 – Dak Prescott (QB – DAL)
Now before I dive into Dak here, please be aware that the Mock Draft Simulator is just that, a simulator. Often times when completing mock drafts, the simulation will not begin to draft backup QBs until the very last round. So be sure to keep this in mind as your friends, family, co-workers, or internet buds might start pairing QBs together a little earlier. Regardless, I still think there will more than enough names left on the board in one QB leagues if you decide to wait on the position as I have here. At this spot, players like in Goff, Murray, Rivers, and more are still available. Now personally I would put Goff at the top of the list, but since I keep ending up with him I figured it would be a good opportunity to touch on Dak Prescott. Prescott is currently being taken as QB20 off the board, which is crazy value in my opinion. Not only has Prescott been a top 12 QB each of his first three seasons, he saw a major boost last year with the addition of Amari Cooper. Prior to Cooper arriving in Dallas, Prescott was averaging just 16 fantasy points per game. With Cooper on the field, Prescott was up to 19 points per game. At worse, I think Dak can be a safe and consistent top 12 QB, but I do think he has enough upside to finish in the top eight or so.
13.05 – Deebo Samuel (WR – SF)
With only one other rookie WR off the board heading into this final round, I have my pick of the bunch. While I thought I was going to lean D.K. Metcalf here originally, I am going with Deebo Samuel here to pair him with Pettis. This kind of hedges my bet on the 49ers WRs and while I do like Pettis’ upside, it’s not a guarantee he’ll be “the guy” for the 49ers. I think Samuel is a nice fit in this offense and is more likely going to be handling most of the slot duties. I think Samuel might have a shot to be the top rookie WR this year, so I like the value here with my last pick.
Favorite Pick: Adam Thielen (3.05) – As I mentioned, it was surprising to see only eight WRs off the board by the mid-third round. Thielen is unlikely to repeat the pace we saw from him in the first half of 2018, but I think he’s better than what we saw to finish the season. Regardless, having Thielen in the flex position is a huge advantage.
Least Favorite Pick: Kerryon Johnson (5.05) – It’s not that I don’t see the upside, and at the time I only had one other RB, but looking back at what I was able to get later on at the position, I would have preferred to take a WR like Tyler Boyd, Chris Godwin, or Alshon Jeffrey who were all still on the board.
Conclusion: I think it’s hard to find a better start in a PPR format than Adams, Brown, and Thielen. It felt uneasy at first, but the five RBs I was able to get in Rounds 4-9 to fill the two starting RB spots made the strategy a slam dunk in my opinion. I think this team has a good mix of upside and safety and picking up players I liked later in the draft at both QB and TE doesn’t hurt either.
You check out the full draft results here to see where other players went throughout the draft.
Projected Starting Lineup
QB: Dak Prescott
RB: Devonta Freeman
RB: Kerryon Johnson
WR: Davante Adams
WR: Antonio Brown
TE: Vance McDonald
Flex: Adam Thielen
Bench: James White, Mark Ingram, Tevin Coleman, Dante Pettis, DaeSean Hamilton, Deebo Samuel
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Kyle August is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Kyle, check out his archive and follow him @kyleFFfellas.
