Which Players Are Experts Higher/Lower On vs. ADP (Fantasy Football)
There’s always some sort of disconnect between the public and those in the industry on players, but some more than others. There’s a lot of different reasons for this, with a few of them being personal grudges for past disappointments, failure to acknowledge a major change to the coaching staff and/or depth chart, and what new landing spots may mean.
Whatever the case, there are certain players with massive gaps in between ECR (Expert Consensus Ranking) and ADP (Average Draft Position), so we thought it’d be a good idea to let you know who the experts are higher/lower on than the general consensus. I’ll take a stab at why I believe it may be that way and whether or not it’ll even out over time.
Dak Prescott (DAL) ECR: QB15, ADP: QB23
Everyone wants to take a shot on the potential top-five quarterback, which is why Prescott gets left out on a run-first team. But did you know that once Amari Cooper joined the Cowboys, Prescott was the No. 6 quarterback in fantasy? Even before then, he was stable, posting a top-12 finish in each of his three years.
Jameis Winston (TB) ECR: QB11, ADP: QB15
This is one where it’ll be hard for the public to let go of what happened a year ago, as Winston was benched for Ryan Fitzpatrick. This is a make-or-break year for Winston and he’ll be the starter all year unless he completely flops, but that seems unlikely under new head coach Bruce Arians, as he’s gotten the most out of his offenses. There’s a legitimate top-five ceiling with Winston knowing who his pass-catchers are.
Tom Brady (NE) ECR: QB20, ADP: QB13
This is where the public has trouble separating on-the-field talent from fantasy talent, as Brady is simply not a great fantasy quarterback. Even with Rob Gronkowski last year, Brady finished as the QB17 in fantasy points per game among quarterbacks, behind guys like Kirk Cousins (who had a bad year, yet he’s going as the QB16). This is not the experts saying he’s a bad quarterback, but rather someone you don’t want on your fantasy team.
Kyler Murray (ARI) ECR: QB14, ADP: QB11
Shocking to see this, as I figured the experts would be higher on Murray in Kliff Kingsbury’s fast-paced offense. I’ve been on record as saying I have questions about Murray’s potential in the NFL, but if he plays all 16 games, he’s finishing as a top-12 fantasy quarterback. It’s tough to rank him as high as No. 11 knowing the nature of mobile quarterbacks (especially smaller ones), but I fully understand why the public has him higher.
Duke Johnson (CLE) ECR: RB49, ADP: RB62
Maybe the public represents the Browns? Johnson has asked to be traded, though the Browns don’t appear to be willing to grant him his wish. While they did sign Kareem Hunt, he’s suspended for the first eight games. From the time Freddie Kitchens started calling plays last year, Johnson totaled 18 carries and 33 targets in the eight-game sample size, which amounted to 320 yards and three touchdowns. Even if he’s used in a similar fashion the first eight games, he’s worth what the experts are suggesting, and maybe more if he gets traded.
Adrian Peterson (WAS) ECR: RB45, ADP: RB52
It’s likely that experts are unwilling to just shrug off Peterson despite Derrius Guice expected back. It feels a lot like Miami last year when they brought in Frank Gore, though many expected Kenyan Drake to hold onto the starting job. After Peterson rushed for 1,042 yards and seven touchdowns in 2018, they could decide to bring on Guice slowly.
Matt Breida (SF) ECR: RB43, ADP: RB49
This one befuddles me, as I don’t see any reason Breida should be going as high as some experts have him. Sure, he’s talented, but Kyle Shanahan literally told you how he felt last year when he played Alfred Morris and Raheem Mostert over him at times. Then he went out and signed Tevin Coleman this offseason, despite getting back Jerick McKinnon. You think adding Coleman and McKinnon make him any more relevant?
Latavius Murray (NO) ECR: RB32, ADP: RB38
Here’s one where the public hasn’t adjusted enough to Murray’s new situation. He’s walking into Mark Ingram‘s old role on the Saints, which is valuable, despite Alvin Kamara being there. The Saints have repeatedly said they want to keep Kamara in the same role to maximize his efficiency. Ingram finished as the No. 6 running back in 2017 and then the No. 29 running back in 2018 despite missing four full games. I’d argue both the public and experts are too low on Murray.
Marlon Mack (IND) ECR: RB13, ADP: RB18
Those who study the numbers religiously can tell you what a high-scoring offense can do for a running back. Mack played just 12 games last year and finished as the No. 21 running back, so why is the public so hesitant? The Colts have said he’s their workhorse, he plays alongside one of the game’s best quarterbacks, and has one of the best offensive lines in football. What more could you want?
Kareem Hunt (CLE) ECR: RB51, ADP: RB32
C’mon, public. He’s going to be suspended for the first eight games and even when he returns, he’s not going to surpass Nick Chubb for the starting job, so you’re essentially paying for a handcuff who’s guaranteed to do nothing until Week 10 (their bye is in Week 7). I’ll continue to say he shouldn’t be drafted.
Miles Sanders (PHI) ECR: RB41, ADP: RB35
This one was pretty shocking, not because the public has him crazy high, but because the experts have him much lower than I would’ve thought. Doug Pederson hasn’t used a workhorse back in his three years while at Philadelphia, but he also hasn’t drafted one in the second-round. There’s some risk involved, but not nearly enough to push him down this far. My guess is that both experts and the public are too low.
Derrius Guice (WAS) ECR: RB30, ADP: RB24
This makes sense considering the Adrian Peterson difference. Guice is still rehabbing from his torn ACL he suffered last year, but it doesn’t help ease experts’ minds when they see the Redskins re-sign Adrian Peterson, then draft Bryce Love at the top of the fourth round. Don’t forget they still have Chris Thompson on the roster, too. It’s going to be some version of a timeshare.
Kerryon Johnson (DET) ECR: RB20, ADP: RB16
It’s pretty odd to see Johnson this high in the public’s eyes, as he’s admittingly a timeshare running back. There was an interview last year where he said he doesn’t want to be a workhorse, as that’s not how he’ll be most effective. Does it make sense they brought in C.J. Anderson now? While I like him as a player, his upside is capped, therefore he’s being drafted too high.
Todd Gurley (LAR) ECR: RB10, ADP: RB7
His stock is dropping fast due to some speculation about his knee not getting much better, while Darrell Henderson‘s stock is soaring. If Gurley is on the field, he’s going to deliver value. His 693.9 half-PPR points over the last two years is lightyears ahead of the closest running back (Alvin Kamara), as you can legitimately take away 16 percent of Gurley’s production, and you’d still have the RB1. There’s concern, but has it been overblown?
Michael Gallup (DAL) ECR: WR46, ADP: WR70
This is a massive gap, but I’ll side with the experts on this one. Gallup may be the No. 2 in the Cowboys offense, but that was fine for him his rookie year. From the time Amari Cooper joined the Cowboys in Week 9, Gallup was the No. 55 wide receiver during that time, but was 37th in targets. While it may not seem like much, it was his rookie year, so his efficiency should rise as we move into 2019.
John Brown (BUF) ECR: WR53, ADP: WR63
It’s not surprising to see the experts higher on Brown, as he’s extremely talented, though the public has their reservations after continuously seeing his talent not show up in box scores. Now going to play with Josh Allen? It’s not going to help him become any more consistent.
Kenny Stills (MIA) ECR: WR51, ADP: WR65
This seems to be the case every year, as the experts find value in drafting Stills in the later rounds, while the public wants nothing to do with him. He’s finished as a top 52 receiver in each of the last three seasons and they just upgraded the quarterback position, though a new coaching staff may shake things up. It’s likely the experts are closer, though I don’t blame the public for shying away.
Marquise Goodwin (SF) ECR: WR57, ADP: WR68
He was a consensus top-36 receiver last year, though a down season where he dealt with personal issues, as well as a few quarterback changes, and the public quickly change their mind. The 49ers did go out and draft two wide receivers in the first three rounds, so there’s a bit more competition, but it’s hard to think someone takes away Goodwin’s field-stretching role.
Marvin Jones (DET) ECR: WR32, ADP: WR41
The public has pushed Jones out of the top-40 wide receivers, which seems crazy considering he totaled at least 54 yards in seven of his nine games last year and scored in one of the games he didn’t reach that mark. He was the No. 27 receiver through 10 weeks (when he got hurt), which included his bye week. Keep in mind that most of that was with Golden Tate in the lineup and with Matthew Stafford having a down year.
Alshon Jeffery (PHI) ECR: WR23, ADP: WR30
Once again, the experts are taking the steady production higher than the public. Jeffery will get his starting quarterback back under center and will have DeSean Jackson to help stretch the field. In 23 games with Carson Wentz, Jeffery has averaged 13.3 points per game, while he averaged 11.5 points per game with Nick Foles. He may not have top-10 upside, but he’s a reliable WR2/3.
Tyreek Hill (KC) ECR: WR98, ADP: WR27
The reason there’s such a gap here is due to some experts expecting Hill to be suspended or released, though if they haven’t released him by now, they likely won’t. It’s still likely there’s a suspension looming, even if there are no charges, as we’ve seen with Ezekiel Elliott in the past. Still, the public seems to believe he’s worth a top-30 wide receiver pick.
Andy Isabella (ARI) ECR: WR80, ADP: WR56
There’s a trend among the public – they like rookie wide receivers a lot more than experts do. Isabella has the biggest gap among them. With Kliff Kingsbury running 4WR sets more than most, Isabella should be on the field alongside Larry Fitzgerald, Christian Kirk, and Hakeem Butler. To say that he’ll produce WR56 numbers while being the fourth target (at best, behind Fitzgerald, Kirk, and David Johnson) on the team is a big stretch.
Parris Campbell (IND) ECR: WR66, ADP: WR47
He’s another one who’s being overdrafted by the public, as he might not even be a starter Week 1, as he’s currently practicing with the second-team offense, behind Chester Rogers. Not just that, but even if he works his way up, he’s behind T.Y. Hilton, Devin Funchess, Eric Ebron, and maybe Jack Doyle and Nyheim Hines. Despite that, he’s going to post top-50 numbers? Nah.
Deebo Samuel (SF) ECR: WR75, ADP: WR52
Does everyone remember how long it took for Dante Pettis to get on the field last year? Just because Samuel was drafted in the second-round doesn’t mean he’s a lock to start day one. Even then, he’ll be behind Pettis, George Kittle, Marquise Goodwin, and maybe even Jerick McKinnon/Tevin Coleman. Drafting him as a borderline WR4 is going to require a shake-up of some sort.
Mecole Hardman (KC) ECR: WR60, ADP: WR40
The public is drafting Hardman in front of Marvin Jones and Larry Fitzgerald? Whew. It’s one thing to expect Tyreek Hill to get suspended. It’s another thing to expect Hardman, who caught 60 balls over his three years at Georgia, to become a borderline WR3. Please, for the love of all that is good, stop drafting Hardman this high.
N’Keal Harry (NE) ECR: WR45, ADP: WR35
Yet another rookie receiver on this list. Harry landed with Tom Brady, so it’s natural to have high hopes, but how many times have we expected big things out of Patriots wide receivers, only to be left disappointed? Harry is very likely to start (I don’t believe Demaryius Thomas will play/be ready), but you don’t want to have WR3 expectations for a rookie wide receiver, particularly when Julian Edelman is still there to post top-20 numbers.
Calvin Ridley (ATL) ECR: WR26, ADP: WR20
This one was a bit shocking, as the public tends to fade players who are up and down in production, as Ridley was in 2018. He was a rookie, so some volatility was to be expected, but the increase in pass attempts out of Matt Ryan was due to a lot of injuries on the defensive side of the ball. Despite Ryan throwing the ball more and Ridley scoring 10 touchdowns, he still finished as the WR20 last year, so I’m siding with the experts on this one, provided Julio Jones stays healthy.
Jack Doyle (IND) ECR: TE15, ADP: TE22
It’s rare to find a gap this big among tight ends, but that’s where Doyle is among the two groups. There were seven games with Doyle and Eric Ebron on the field together last year. In those games, Doyle played 331 snaps to Ebron’s 164 snaps. Doyle saw 32 targets to Ebron’s 22 targets. What’s the disconnect? Ebron scored eight touchdowns in those games to Doyle’s two. Touchdowns are a volatile thing.
Delanie Walker (TEN) ECR: TE11, ADP: TE17
This is one of those classic aging tight ends ADP that will eventually even out once everyone sees him back on the field. Walker had been a top-12 tight end for five straight seasons prior to having his 2018 season ended in Week 1. He doesn’t offer the upside of other tight ends, especially with the additions at wide receiver for the Titans, so his price will likely wind up somewhere in-between.
Jordan Reed (WAS) ECR: TE16, ADP: TE20
He’s still the best receiver on the Redskins, so why all the hate? If you don’t draft a top-10 tight end, you’re likely going to be streaming the position, and there’s no one outside that range better than Reed when on the field. His health is always a concern, but when streaming, you’re able to just move onto the next one.
T.J. Hockenson (DET) ECR: TE22, ADP: TE13
A rookie tight end bordering on the TE1 conversation? Does the public know how rare that is? In fact, it’s happened just twice in the last 15 years. Evan Engram in 2017 (when Odell Beckham, Brandon Marshall, and Sterling Shepard got hurt) and John Carlson in 2008. Those were the only two tight ends who’ve topped 600 yards in their rookie seasons. His ADP needs to fall.
Kyle Rudolph (MIN) ECR: TE19, ADP: TE14
It seems the public hasn’t caught onto the whole “Vikings asking Rudolph to take a pay cut” story yet, because his ADP is sitting right where it was last year despite the addition of Irv Smith Jr. When you look at the stats from last year, you’ll see Rudolph at No. 8, but what you don’t see is that he scored 24.1 percent of his fantasy points in one game.
Eric Ebron (IND) ECR: TE7, ADP: TE5
This is the easiest one because I can just copy/paste the notes from Jack Doyle‘s paragraph above. There were seven games with Doyle and Ebron on the field together last year. In those games, Doyle played 331 snaps to Ebron’s 164 snaps. Doyle saw 32 targets to Ebron’s 22 targets. What’s the disconnect? Ebron scored eight touchdowns in those games to Doyle’s two. Touchdowns are a volatile thing.