14 Overvalued Players (Fantasy Football)

Jul 16, 2019

Le’Veon Bell’s situation will likely hamper his fantasy production

We’re just one day away from the start of training camp across the league as the Ravens, Broncos, Cardinals, and Seahawks are set to kick things off on July 17. As teams initiate their training over the next couple of weeks, the fantasy industry will get their first look at who stands out and who is behind the eight ball. Paying attention to camp reports and using our rankings to observe how the industry views each player compared to their average draft position gives you a place to start when searching for which players are going higher than they should.

Fantasy owners who took David Johnson or Rob Gronkowski last year know all too well that you don’t want to be locked into someone who heavily underperforms their cost. This is especially true in the early rounds since draft busts can ruin your season. To help you find out which athletes you may want to fade this preseason, our featured experts have each identified their top overvalued quarterback, running back, and wide receiver below.

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Q1. Which running back are you avoiding at their current cost and why?

Le’Veon Bell (NYJ)
Overall (ADP 8), RB7
“Bell should not be a first-round pick in 2019. Yes, I’m well aware of his dominance when on the field, but the situation absolutely matters. He’s going to the Jets, whose offensive line is a complete 180 from what he had with the Steelers, and he’ll now play for Adam Gase, the coach who’s ruined plenty of fantasy seasons. His offense has averaged less than 59 plays per game over the last three years and his running backs haven’t been getting carries near the goal line, which is why they combined for just 10 rushing touchdowns over the last two years.”
– Mike Tagliere (FantasyPros)

Le’Veon Bell going in the first round and ahead of players like Todd Gurley and Nick Chubb is a nightmare. He ballooned to 260 pounds last season and is a full year removed from playing, so it is quite the assumption that he is still a superstar. What’s more, is that James Conner was every bit as efficient replacing him, showing that the scheme helped prop Bell up as a top fantasy asset. Now that he is in New York with Adam Gase and the worst offensive line in football, he will struggle to finish as a top-12 RB even with the volume.”
– Bobby Sylvester (FantasyPros)

Todd Gurley (LAR)
Overall (ADP 16), RB10
“You have to limit risk in the early rounds of a fantasy draft, and that means staying away from Gurley in the first two rounds. Guys who are available in the late third, like Marlon Mack and Kerryon Johnson, offer a much higher floor, so why force yourself into Gurley in Round 2?”
– R.J. White (CBS Sports)

“The knee issue with Todd Gurley is too worrisome for me to take him at his current cost. There are too many better options available that do not have an injury cloud hanging over their head. I’m avoiding him at all costs.”
– Walton Spurlin (FantasyPros)

Joe Mixon (CIN)
Overall (ADP 14), RB9
“Mixon is ridiculously talented, but his offensive line is a mess. The Bengals lost Jonah Williams to a season-ending injury and Clint Boling to retirement, meaning they have just one viable blocker remaining. That would be Cordy Glenn, who hasn’t played a full season since 2015. Once Glenn goes down, Mixon won’t have anywhere to run, so he’s someone I’m avoiding in addition to the obvious risky players (Melvin Gordon, Todd Gurley).”
– Walter Cherepinsky (WalterFootball)

Damien Williams (KC)
Overall (ADP 23), RB13
“Williams at 23rd overall is the ultimate boom/bust selection in this year’s draft in my opinion. We all know what the starting RB in an Andy Reid offense is capable of, but with only a small sample size of productivity from Williams, this feels too rich for me. There are plenty of more established RBs you can get later with similar upside.”
– Kyle August (FF Fellas)

Q2. Which quarterback are you avoiding at their current cost and why?

Patrick Mahomes (KC)
Overall (ADP 23), QB1
“There’s a 100 percent chance that I’ll wind up with zero shares of Mahomes at his current price. Each year, we have players who throw for astronomical touchdown percentages, and every year, we watch them come down to earth. It’s not to say Mahomes isn’t/can’t be great, but if we lower his touchdown percentage to the “elite” tier of quarterbacks (around 6.0 percent), he would’ve wound up with essentially the same season that Matt Ryan had in 2018. You aren’t paying anything close to a second- or third-round pick for that.”
– Mike Tagliere (FantasyPros)

“While I don’t necessarily think Patrick Mahomes is going to suddenly be a bust, I have no interest taking him at the Round 2/3 turn when the position is so deep. Give me a top-three TE and a WR to go with my elite RB, and that’s the makings of a championship team.”
– R.J. White (CBS Sports)

Tom Brady (NE)
Overall (ADP 117), QB13
“Brady is undraftable for me this season in your standard single-quarterback leagues. It is nearly unbelievable to me that he is going to end up a top-12 quarterback in average draft position by the time more casual leagues get underway. He was the QB17 in points per game last year and is turning 42 years old next month. As if that wasn’t enough, he has virtually no receiving talent on the roster.”
– Bobby Sylvester (FantasyPros)

Drew Brees (NO)
Overall (ADP 77), QB7
“I’m not getting Brees at his current cost this year. Brees failed to throw for 4,000 yards last season despite getting off to a great start, thanks to a greater emphasis on the running game and an improved defense. Brees turned 40 earlier this year, and he won’t have his starting center from last season, so there could be some regression.”
– Walter Cherepinsky (WalterFootball)

Baker Mayfield (CLE)
Overall (ADP 67), QB5
“For me, there is a clear top four at the position and then a decent tier drop to the next QB. As of now, Mayfield coming in at 67th overall seems far too early for a QB that I don’t think is that far from the rest of the pack. Mayfield obviously has better weapons than a year ago, but I’m not sure that is enough to buy into the hype and spend a pick inside the first six rounds.”
– Kyle August (FF Fellas)

Cam Newton (CAR)
Overall (ADP 89), QB9
“I am avoiding Newton heading into the 2019 season. The shoulder issue is a major concern, as is the overall wear and tear he has endured. There is also a lack of receiving options outside of Christian McCaffrey and an aging Greg Olsen.”
– Walton Spurlin (FantasyPros)

Q3. Which wide receiver are you avoiding at their current cost and why?

Tyler Lockett (SEA)
Overall (ADP 56), WR23
“I can’t get on board with Lockett as a WR2 this season. He saw an unbelievable 10 touchdowns in just 70 targets last year, but don’t go trying to say he is a touchdown machine because Lockett produced just nine touchdowns in his prior 206 targets. If you believe this gimmick receiver is going to suddenly see a major leap in targets, you are in for a surprise as that just isn’t the mold of football player he is. Even when Doug Baldwin was out last year, it was Brandon Marshall who led the Seahawks in targets. This year, it will be David Moore.”
– Bobby Sylvester (FantasyPros)

Tyler Lockett, who is currently going at 56th overall, is more than likely being drafted at his ceiling. Lockett had a fantastic 2018 with a breakout season that included 10 TDs on just 71 targets. While Lockett is a downfield threat that doesn’t need a high volume of work to be productive, he totaled just two TDs in 2017 on the exact same number of targets. I think he’ll come back down to earth this season.”
– Kyle August (FF Fellas)

T.Y. Hilton (IND)
Overall (ADP 24), WR8
“I don’t want to say Hilton is a bad fantasy player, but is he really going as the ninth wide receiver off the board in front of guys like A.J. Green and Keenan Allen? I’m typically taking a running back in that territory, but if I were looking at receivers, Hilton doesn’t belong ahead of those guys. Sure, he has an elite quarterback, but they’ve added a lot of playmakers around him, capping his upside. He lacked true elite upside before then, as he’s finished inside the top-10 receivers just once in his career. He’s a great WR2 to have on your fantasy team, but you don’t want him in your WR1 slot.”
– Mike Tagliere (FantasyPros)

Calvin Ridley (ATL)
Overall (ADP 58), WR22
“Ridley earned a lot of his value last year from scoring 10 touchdowns, but I wouldn’t expect him to replicate that if Devonta Freeman can stay healthy this year. Ridley’s ceiling is a bit lower than the players around him with a bona fide stud lining up at receiver as well in Julio Jones. There are other guys with WR1 upside I’m looking to take in Ridley’s range instead.”
– R.J. White (CBS Sports)

JuJu Smith-Schuster (PIT)
Overall (ADP 17), WR6
“While I like Smith-Schuster overall heading into the season, I am wary of drafting him as a top-10 option. We’ve yet to see him as a number one wide receiver that will draw double teams and that worries me. How will he handle the double teams he’s assured to draw? I’ll let another owner roll the dice on selecting him as their top receiving option.”
– Walton Spurlin (FantasyPros)

Amari Cooper (DAL)
Overall (ADP 31), WR12
“Cooper quit on the Raiders on numerous occasions. He was on his best behavior in Dallas, but I don’t trust that to continue. The Cowboys are a major candidate for regression this season because of how many close, lucky wins they had last year, so once they begin losing, I don’t trust Cooper to remain focused.”
– Walter Cherepinsky (WalterFootball)


Thank you to the experts for naming their overvalued players. Be sure to give them a follow on Twitter and subscribe to our podcast below for all the latest discussions this season.

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1Saquon Barkley (NYG)RB
2Christian McCaffrey (CAR)RB
3Alvin Kamara (NO)RB
4Ezekiel Elliott (DAL)RB
5David Johnson (ARI)RB
6DeAndre Hopkins (HOU)WR
7Nick Chubb (CLE)RB
8James Conner (PIT)RB
9Davante Adams (GB)WR
10Julio Jones (ATL)WR
 View All Rankings 
11Le'Veon Bell (NYJ)RB
12Joe Mixon (CIN)RB
13Odell Beckham Jr. (CLE)WR
14Travis Kelce (KC)TE
15Tyreek Hill (KC)WR
16Todd Gurley (LAR)RB
17Dalvin Cook (MIN)RB
18JuJu Smith-Schuster (PIT)WR
19Michael Thomas (NO)WR
20Mike Evans (TB)WR
21T.Y. Hilton (IND)WR
22Keenan Allen (LAC)WR
23Antonio Brown (OAK)WR
24Marlon Mack (IND)RB
25Kerryon Johnson (DET)RB
26Aaron Jones (GB)RB
27Melvin Gordon (LAC)RB
28Damien Williams (KC)RB
29Amari Cooper (DAL)WR
30George Kittle (SF)TE
1Mike Trout (LAA)CF,DH
2Christian Yelich (MIL)LF,CF
3Ronald Acuna Jr. (ATL)LF,CF
4Cody Bellinger (LAD)1B,CF
5Mookie Betts (BOS)CF,RF
6Nolan Arenado (COL)3B
7Francisco Lindor (CLE)SS
8Trevor Story (COL)SS
9Justin Verlander (HOU)SP
10Javier Baez (CHC)2B,3B
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11J.D. Martinez (BOS)LF,RF
12Gerrit Cole (HOU)SP
13Alex Bregman (HOU)3B,SS
14Jacob deGrom (NYM)SP
15Freddie Freeman (ATL)1B
16Trea Turner (WSH)SS
17Anthony Rendon (WSH)3B
18Starling Marte (PIT)CF
19Jose Ramirez (CLE)2B,3B
20Charlie Blackmon (COL)CF
21Walker Buehler (LAD)SP
22Manny Machado (SD)3B,SS
23Whit Merrifield (KC)1B,2B
24Xander Bogaerts (BOS)SS
25Juan Soto (WSH)LF
26Anthony Rizzo (CHC)1B
27Aaron Judge (NYY)RF,DH
28George Springer (HOU)CF,RF
29Pete Alonso (NYM)1B,DH
30Rafael Devers (BOS)3B
1Anthony Davis (LAL)PF,C
2James Harden (HOU)PG,SG
3Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL)SF,PF
4Karl-Anthony Towns (MIN)C
5Kevin Durant (BKN)SF,PF
6LeBron James (LAL)SF,PF
7Stephen Curry (GSW)PG,SG
8Nikola Jokic (DEN)PF,C
9Damian Lillard (POR)PG
10Russell Westbrook (HOU)PG
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11Victor Oladipo (IND)PG,SG
12Paul George (LAC)SG,SF
13Joel Embiid (PHI)PF,C
14Kawhi Leonard (LAC)SG,SF
15Chris Paul (OKC)PG
16Jimmy Butler (MIA)SG,SF
17Kemba Walker (BOS)PG
18Ben Simmons (PHI)PG,SF
19Kyrie Irving (BKN)PG,SG
20Jrue Holiday (NOR)PG,SG
21Rudy Gobert (UTH)C
22Andre Drummond (DET)PF,C
23John Wall (WAS)PG
24Kyle Lowry (TOR)PG
25Donovan Mitchell (UTH)PG,SG
26Khris Middleton (MIL)SG,SF
27Bradley Beal (WAS)SG
28Kevin Love (CLE)PF,C
29Draymond Green (GSW)PF,C
30LaMarcus Aldridge (SAS)PF,C
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