DraftKings MLB Lineup Advice: Friday (7/5) PREMIUM
Tonight’s pitching selections are headlined by one of the game’s top hurlers. He’s joined by a pair of southpaws while another lefty, Eduardo Rodriguez, narrowly misses the cut. While E-Rod won’t receive any attention below, he might make the cut on some of my GPP rosters tonight depending on how many I ultimately build. I also bring him up in the event of any last-minute roster juggling and unexpected probable pitcher changes that impact the touted pitchers below. One power-packed rookie gets the nod among the hitters as a one-off. He’s joined by a pair of California stacks. The first is a two-man stack of left-handed hitters facing a right-handed pitcher who’s struggled mightily with lefties. The other is a three-man stack of lefty-killers who each have a 143 wRC+ or higher against southpaws since 2016, per FanGraphs.
Jacob deGrom (NYM): $11,300 vs. Phillies
DeGrom is $700 cheaper than Justin Verlander, but, even at equal cost, I’d prefer New York’s righty to Houston’s. For starters, Verlander faces an Angels team with just a 17.7% K rate against right-handed pitchers this season, according to FanGraphs. Philadelphia’s, on the other hand, is 23.0%. Additionally, the Angels rank third in wRC+ (113) against right-handed pitchers this year and the Phillies rank tied for 16th (91). The Phillies also aren’t any great shakes on the road, ranking tied for 25th in wRC+ (82). As for deGrom, he’s pitching extremely well this season and has an established track record of dominating the opposition at home. The righty’s 3.83 home ERA this year is the worst of his career, well above his 3.46 FIP and 3.63 xFIP – and it’s inflated by back-to-back clunkers at home in April in which he coughed up 11 runs in eight innings to the Twins and Brewers. In 497 innings pitched at home in his career, deGrom owns a sparkling 2.30 ERA (2.50 FIP and 2.91 xFIP), 1.02 WHIP, and 30.3% K rate. He and the Mets are enormous -202 favorites, per Pinnacle.