Last night regular season games resumed, and tonight treats us to a 13-game main slate. There are high team over/under totals abound on this slate, and there’s ample pitching value to select from. With those things in mind, I’ve selected a quartet of pitchers priced under $9,000 to mix and match on GPP rosters tonight. They’re joined by a pair power-packed one-off plays and a four-man stack with massive upside that is likely to be extremely low owned and fly under the radar.
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Pitchers
Caleb Smith (MIA): $8,600 vs. Mets
Smith’s likely to be a popular option in GPPs as a result of a ceiling that belies his salary. Having said that, that’s a good reason for rostering him even as a probable chalky play. An IL stint leaves Smith a bit short of reaching the innings needed to be a qualified pitcher this year, but among starters with a minimum of 70 innings this season, he ranks ninth in strikeout rate (31.1% K%), 14th in SIERA (3.64), and tied for seventh in swinging-strike percentage (14.6%), according to FanGraphs. He’s also thoroughly enjoyed pitching in MLB’s most pitcher-friendly park (0.826 park factor for runs in Miami) since joining the Marlins last year. In 66.2 innings pitched at home with the Marlins, he has a 2.57 ERA (2.74 FIP), 1.07 WHIP, and 30.2% K%. The Marlins are -111 favorites, per Pinnacle, and the visiting Mets’ team over/under total of only 3.5 runs is tied for the lowest on the slate.
