DraftKings MLB Lineup Advice: Friday (7/19) PREMIUM
There’s no shortage of stud hurlers in favorable spots to pick from tonight, but I narrow the picks below down to a pair of the top arms and one bargain pick. They’re joined by a trio of sluggers suggested as one-off plays and a cheap three-man stack.
Justin Verlander (HOU): $11,400 vs. Rangers
Verlander’s in the midst of a fantastic season. Among qualified pitchers this year, he ranks sixth in SIERA (3.39) and strikeout rate (31.5%), and third in swinging-strike percentage (15.8%), according to FanGraphs. The righty’s ceiling is sky-high in a plum draw at home tonight. The Rangers have the fourth-highest strikeout rate (25.3%) against right-handed pitchers this year, and their 28.1% K% on the road is the highest in MLB. The game’s location tonight is a big deal, too. Minute Maid Park in Houston has the third-lowest park factor for runs (0.866) and also suppresses homers (0.945). Furthermore, in 186.1 innings pitched in Houston since the Astros traded for him, Verlander’s amassed a 2.70 ERA (2.99 xFIP), 0.80 WHIP, and 35.6% K%. Verlander and the host Astros are sizable -216 favorites, per Pinnacle, and the Rangers’ team over/under total of 3.5 runs isn’t worrisome, either. Although, it’s a full run higher than the slate-low team over/under total of 2.5 runs for the Marlins against Hyun-Jin Ryu and the Giants against Jacob deGrom, so perhaps it can serve to siphon some ownership away from Verlander to the other duo of aces.