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As the MLB trade deadline in real life approaches, some dynasty league owners will need to make a decision of their own. Are you in or are you out? No matter what your conclusion is, you must keep 2020 and beyond in consideration. Flags fly forever, but don’t jeopardize your future on a futile attempt to win now.
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Buy
Oscar Mercado (OF – CLE)
Another former Cardinals farmhand is excelling after being traded to a different organization. In what’s become a far-too-common occurrence when trading with St. Louis, it looks like the Indians struck gold when they traded two low-level prospects for Mercado in 2018. In his first 55 big league games, Mercado has slashed .294/.346/.486 with eight big flies and nine stolen bases.
That’s a pretty solid immediate return on investment for Cleveland. Add his Triple-A stats (four HRs and 14 SBs) to his MLB numbers and you’ve got the makings of a 20/20 outfielder that hits for average. Plus, the 24-year-old has done this with a sub-20-percent strikeout rate. His profile looks sustainable so I’m buying Mercado everywhere I can, even in shallower dynasty leagues. I expect more homers and more steals as he enters his prime and the Indians give him an everyday role.
Jose Urquidy (SP/RP – HOU)
Urquidy began the season under relative obscurity having pitched at High-A in 2018 with less than an eight K/9. He didn’t show up high on any prospect lists and the Astros started his 2019 season in Double-A, where he posted a 2.35 FIP and 10.91 K/9 in 33 innings. That earned him a promotion to Triple-A where the strikeouts rose to an otherworldly 12.76 per nine innings with just a 2.03 BB/9.
Welcome to the world of non-obscurity, Mr. Urquidy. He had a short, so-so start for his MLB debut on July 2 at Coors Field and was knocked around pretty badly in his second start. After a brief return to Triple-A, Urquidy came back to Houston to throw seven innings allowing one run on two hits and nine strikeouts.
Now he’ll get another chance to prove he’s going to stick in this rotation on Friday. I’m buying Urquidy in deep leagues because the strikeout potential is clearly immense. Over the three levels he’s pitched at in 2019, he’s struck out 126 and walked just 23 over 94.2 innings. I’m salivating over those numbers, his mid-90s heater, and his swing-and-miss, off-speed stuff.
Sell
Jake Odorizzi (SP – MIN)
The former 32nd overall draft pick has had an up-and-down career to be sure. Prior to 2019 Odorizzi has had two sub-4.00 ERA seasons and three seasons above that mark. It appears that in 2019, he’s putting it all together with a 3.18 ERA and a 9.18 K/9 over 99 innings.
Odorizzi has always done a pretty good job of limiting home runs and the juiced baseball hasn’t stopped that. Still, I’m looking to move Odorizzi as soon as possible in dynasty leagues. His 4.72 xFIP shows that he’s been getting extremely lucky so far in 2019.
The jump in strikeouts are nice for sure, but he’s likely to experience some serious regression in the final two months. He’s currently ranked 38th among pitchers on FantasyPros’ Rest of Season Expert Consensus Rankings so you won’t be getting a star in return. I actually just sent Odorizzi to an owner trying to win now in exchange for the recently injured Brandon Woodruff. If you aren’t in win-now mode, try to get someone younger with more upside.
Didi Gregorius (SS – NYY)
Gregorious has improved each year since being traded to the Yankees prior to the 2015 season. He even put up back-to-back 25+ home run seasons in the past two years. Unfortunately, he suffered an elbow injury in the playoffs last year that required him to undergo Tommy John surgery. Gregorious missed just the first two months of the year recovering, but has played in just 32 games since his return. The Yankees are intent on easing him back into action so he’s healthy for the playoffs, but he’s slashing .281/.308/.461 with six homers and his HR/FB rate is in line with what he’s done the previous two years.
In selling Gregorious as a dynasty owner, you can sell the hope, increased playing time as the season goes on, and most importantly, Yankee Stadium. His swing is still perfectly suited for that ballpark and I’d bet he hits a decent amount of home runs the next two months. I’m looking to move Gregorious because his StatCast numbers provided by Baseball Savant show the batting average is about to tank. His expected batting average is just .239 and his expected slugging percentage is just .371. It’s a small sample, but I’m spooked enough to want to get out now while I can.
Hold
Brandon Woodruff (SP – MIL)
The aforementioned Woodruff has enjoyed an excellent first full season in the starting rotation before it was interrupted by an oblique injury that may cost him the rest of the season. Still, I’m doing everything I can to keep him around on my dynasty league rosters. He’s put up a 3.75 ERA with a 10.40 K/9 in 117.2 innings pitched and the peripheral numbers show even more promise. His FIP currently sits at 3.11 and his xFIP is 3.46. Woodruff is on the precipice of being an elite, front of the rotation, bona fide ace.
In fact, if the league is deep enough, I want to trade for Woodruff right now. Even if I find myself in a contending situation, I need Woodruff for 2020. The acquisition cost on this pitcher will never be lower than it is right now as he’ll be a hot commodity heading into next year.
Max Kepler (OF – MIN)
Kepler has been a favorite of scouts and fantasy baseball manages for a couple years running, but he’s finally proving why in 2019. The German import is putting up outrageous numbers through his first 92 games, slashing .263/.333/.527 with 25 long balls. He’s walking a bit less, but everything else about his profile looks very legit. In fact, his BABIP is exactly the same as his career mark.
Since so many folks in the fantasy industry have been on Kepler for years, I’m sure his owners in dynasty leagues are receiving lots of trade offers. I’m suggesting holding off on moving Kepler unless you’re blown away. The 26-year-old outfielder is finally coming into his own and I believe he has top-50 overall upside in certain formats. He’s currently ranked number 121 on FantasyPros’ Rest of Season Expert Consensus Rankings so I don’t think you’re going to get the kind of value you’d need to trade him. Keep Kepler around and enjoy even higher highs in 2020.
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