Welcome back to another edition of the weekly fantasy baseball risers and fallers. You know the drill: I cover some of Major League Baseball’s hottest and coldest players from this past week and analyze their metrics to forecast them going forward. Typically, I highlight a handful of hitters and a few pitchers, but this time I wanted to focus solely on hitters. Next week, I’ll close the first half with a pitcher’s edition. Let’s get to it!
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Risers
DJ LeMahieu (2B – NYY)
It turns out LeMahieu is not just a product of Coors Field as many thought. Whether you expected him to succeed or not, the consensus wrote him off given an average draft position (ADP) of about 300 this offseason. He hit an insane .633 with three home runs, 12 runs, and 13 RBIs in his last seven games! His wOBA is .596 since June 15, and his .375 BABIP this season is reminiscent of his days in Colorado. With 12 home runs already this year, he’s just three off his career high of 15. His doubters will point to regression in both the power and BABIP departments, but let’s see if that’s true.
He’s not increasing his launch angle much, and he’s not pulling more fly balls. His approach is essentially the same as it’s always been. He sprays balls to all fields and hits a ton of line drives. In addition, his hard-hit rate has increased four percent to an impressive 47.3%. His batted-ball profile is perfect for an elevated BABIP, and his ability to hit over 45% of his fly balls to right field is a bonus for power in Yankee Stadium. Nothing in his profile screams regression, and he should provide plenty of runs hitting atop the dangerous Yankee lineup. Owners should be happy with his production to date and hold on to him for the rest of the season.
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (2B/SS/OF – TOR)
Gurriel managed to blast two home runs in back-to-back games this past week and has been on fire since returning from the minors May 24. How hot has he been? Well, since his promotion he’s hitting .348 with 14 home runs and a .457 wOBA. He hasn’t improved his contact rate over that stretch, but the quality has been fantastic with a 51% hard contact rate. Let’s turn to the rolling average graph to see why the power has spiked.
You can see that he’s hitting about the same volume of fly balls, but he’s making an effort to pull the ball more concurrently with his jump in hard contact rate. In fact, he hadn’t pulled a single fly ball — granted, it was only 14 total — prior to May 25. Since then, he’s pulling about 32% of his fly balls, which is about nine percent higher than league-average. So the power spike is real, but given his elevated strikeout rate, I’d expect some slumps in the second half. That said, ride this hot streak and flip him after the break if you can.
Alex Verdugo (OF – LAD)
Over his last eight games, Verdugo is hitting .417 with four home runs, nine runs, and a stolen base. Given the depth of the Dodgers’ roster coming into 2019, it was difficult to foresee everyday at-bats for the 23-year-old outfielder, but he’s certainly forced his way into a near-everyday role. He can hit, run, and play solid defense, which has led to 2.3 fWAR thus far in 2019. Through the minors, he was not known for his power, never totaling more than 13 home runs in any season. However, his hit tool graded out near the top of prospect lists. I love a young player with a highly graded hit tool and a solid approach.
Verdugo is only striking out 9.7% of the time, which ranks fourth among qualified hitters, one spot in front of Michale Brantley. The only player in the top five not hitting .300 is David Fletcher, who is hitting .288, so Verdugo’s .311 batting average is no fluke. I pegged him as a deep-league batting average option this preseason, and he has not disappointed.
Often times a young hitter’s power is the last skill to appear. I don’t believe Verdugo is an exception here. He’s already on pace for 18 home runs and has improved his average launch angle to a solid 8.3 degrees. In addition, he’s an above-average baserunner and should chip in eight to 10 stolen bases to go along with an elite batting average and moderate power. Don’t sleep on Verdugo; he was a top-100 prospect coming into the season and just turned 23 years old.
Fallers
Austin Riley (3B/OF – ATL)
Riley was a shiny new toy in fantasy circles when he received the call to the big leagues in mid-May. The optimism looked warranted, as he smashed nine home runs in his first 18 games with the Braves. Since then, major league pitching has seemed to figure out the free-swinger’s weaknesses, and he’s slashing just .234/.294/.468 with five home runs. The good news is his power remains intact, but let’s take a look at his 10-game rolling average graph. 
His hard contact rate has dipped since mid-June and after showing improvements in his contact rate, he’s settled in around 70%. Last week, he struck out nine times in 24 plate appearances. He’s still hitting the ball extremely hard and is able to distribute balls to all fields, which is great for his BABIP. It’s just going to be very difficult to sustain the success given his 32.6% strikeout rate and 4.5% walk rate. I ran a query for all hitters since 2000 with at least 450 plate appearances, a 30% strikeout rate, and a walk rate below five percent. The only result was Mike Zunino‘s 2014 season in which he slashed .199/.254/.404 with 22 homers and an 87 wRC+ (100 is league-average). Even when I relaxed the settings to a 28% K rate and 6% BB rate, the top result is Marlon Byrd‘s 110 wRC+ in 2014. Based on recent history, Riley’s current 128 wRC+ is likely to come down.
Paul Goldschmidt (1B – STL)
Goldschmidt’s first season with the Cardinals has not gone quite as anticipated. Over the last two weeks, he’s hitting just .152 with one home run, and his .239 slugging % nearly matches his .235 OBP. His June is very reminiscent of his late-April/May from 2018 when he hit .144 with three home runs. However, the rest of 2018, in which he slashed .330/.420/.602, made many owners forget about the poor start to the season. Clearly, Goldschmidt possesses elite talent. He’s proved that for the better part of a decade. Let’s take a look at his spray charts from the last two seasons. The chart on top is from 2018, and the bottom chart is this season.
His 2018 spray chart is beautiful. He sprayed balls and had power to all fields. So far this year, he still has an all-fields approach, but the power hasn’t shown up to right field. This is an issue for a hitter like Goldschmidt, as he hits nearly 40% of his fly balls the right field. The good news is he’s still feasting on fastballs, and his power will continue. However, he can’t seem to find success against changeups and offspeed pitches. His wRC+ is just four (yes the number 4) against changeups this season compared to his career 135 wRC+ against the slow ball. Some of that is attributed to an unsustainable .147 BABIP. Positive regression is coming for Goldschmidt, but I don’t envision the same results we saw in 2018’s second half. Owners should probably hold him because you’re not going to be able to sell him for more than 85 cents on the dollar.
Christian Yelich (OF – MIL)
Now, let’s not fly off the handle here. Yelich is still an elite fantasy player. I do have a few (very few) concerns. Yes, he hit .143 without a home run last week. It’s actually crazy to expect at least one home run a week from him, but when you mash 29 first-half homers in 13 weeks, that will happen.
My concerns with Yelich going forward are more about rest than anything. He could use a few days off, but he’s going to participate in the Home Run Derby. Is competing in the Home Run Derby a precursor for a second-half slump? Probably not. As long as Yelich doesn’t change his swing, he should be fine. I just prefer he used the All-Star break as just that, a break. I’d also expect fewer stolen bases, as his stolen base success rate has fallen seven percent in the second half. I’m not telling you to sell. In fact, DON’T SELL! Just be mindful of a slight dip in overall production from Yelich going forward.
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Max Freeze is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Max, check out his archive and follow him @FreezeStats.
