Fantasy Baseball Trade Chart (Week 14)
With the All-Star Break right around the corner, it’s the perfect time to reassess your fantasy team’s needs and strengths. What looked to be a problem area yesterday may be a position of excess today. Evaluating and re-evaluating the standings and your rest-of-season projections is critical to maximizing any trade.
The same holds true for the trade chart. Through revisiting players’ Statcast data, advanced metrics, and plain old actual statistics, it becomes evident that changes are warranted.
This week, more than ever, you’ll see major risers and fallers as we look to tighten up the trade values. So before you consider making any deal, make sure to weigh both sides of the trade using our updated trade chart.
Preseason projections are built on an enormous amount of data, so early performances that are drastically out of line with those projections should be looked at with some skepticism.
Bell’s early-season breakout looked utterly legitimate, but a slump for most of June (.221/.319/.429 from June 1-25) made it seem like perhaps the breakout wasn’t quite as legitimate as it seemed for the first two months. Since June 26, however, all Bell has done is smash six homers and drive in 14, tallying better than a 1.300 OPS. The Statcast data loves everything he is doing, and he’s likely to challenge the record for most extra-base hits in a season. His value should likely be even higher, and it will continue to rise to the extent he avoids another lengthy slump. For now, however, his value puts him among a handful of elite hitters.
Trending in the other direction, however, is Goldschmidt. His numbers this season (.250/.340/.408) warrant a significantly lower placement on the trade chart. His strikeout rate is up, his walk rate is down, his speed is non-existent, and his counting stats are at career-worst levels. Yet Goldschmidt is only 31 years old, and he looked absolutely done last year after a May in which he had a .531 OPS and a 31.5% strikeout rate. He came roaring back with an enormous finish. Given his age, it’s not inconceivable that he could do the same here, even with such an extended slump. His quality of contact remains poor, however, and Goldschmidt will continue to drop significantly unless he shows signs of turning it around.
Bauer’s inconsistency has been maddening this season. Since April, he has allowed the following earned runs in his starts: 7, 0, 7, 4, 3, 2, 5, 1, 0, 5, 1, and 5. Five starts allowing two earned runs or fewer. Five starts allowing five earned runs or more. To the extent there’s optimism with Bauer, it’s that he has greatly reduced his troubling walk rate in recent starts, walking just three over his last four outings. But Bauer’s inability to string together more than one or two quality outings in a row, unlike Aaron Nola is doing now, leads to his drop in value.
I have been incredibly reluctant to drop Ramirez too far in value because, quite frankly, his season makes no sense. Putting aside the metrics or Statcast data, how in the world does a 26-year-old who hit 68 home runs the past two seasons suddenly drop to five at the midway point? Ramirez has at least salvaged his season somewhat with 18 steals, and his expected numbers are much better than his actual numbers. And that is the reason why he still retains fairly significant value, probably more than deserved. Absent learning of an injury, this will have been one of the strangest bust seasons in recent memory.
Devers is quietly having a prolific season, contributing heartily in all five categories. He ranks in the top four percent in the league in exit velocity and the top eight percent in hard-hit rate. With Andrew Benintendi’s struggles, Devers is now batting second in a strong Red Sox lineup. There should be no concerns going forward.
The majority of the remaining significant movers are because of injury concerns, but constantly reviewing players’ numbers and advanced metrics always result in tweaking here or there. That will continue to be the case each week, as the best deal for you today may not be the best deal for you tomorrow.