They say leagues are not won in the early rounds, but they certainly can be lost. The opposite is true for the later rounds. Leagues cannot be lost with these end-of-draft picks, but they certainly can be won. In 2018, we saw names like Nick Chubb, Matt Breida, James Conner, and, if you drafted late enough, Phillip Lindsay, being selected at the latter stages of fantasy drafts. All four of those running backs were varying degrees of league-winning-type picks.

When I think “late rounds,” I’m thinking double digits, so that is where these players are typically being drafted if they are even being drafted at all. Let’s take a look at some late-round running backs to target that have the potential to make a significant impact on your fantasy team.

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Damien Harris (NE)
For a few years now, the key to cracking the New England backfield enigma has been to just take the cheapest guy. This season, that guy is Alabama rookie, Damien Harris. The masses are so enamored with Josh Jacobs that they often forget Harris was so good that he kept Jacobs off the field. Harris has 77th percentile burst and above-average speed. The Patriots spent a third-round pick on him and, despite the presence of James White, he’s really just one Sony Michel injury away from relevance.

Michel’s knee woes are no secret and he already missed OTAs due to his knee. If you had to place a large sum of money on the answer to this one question, “Will Sony Michel play 16 games?” is there any shot you’d bet “yes”? Given Harris’ talent and the Patriots’ lack of commitment to any RB in particular, it’s very easy to paint the picture whereby Harris overtakes Michel due to injury and then never gives the job back.

Carlos Hyde (KC)
I know. This one is obvious. That doesn’t mean I can just leave Hyde out. The Chiefs’ backfield is going to put up RB1 numbers and it does not matter who is back there. Right now, it looks like that is going to be Damien Williams.

But things happen. This is professional football. If Williams gets hurt or just isn’t nearly as good as the guy we saw last year, Hyde has a proven track record of success, including the receiving game. Remember, this is a player who saw 88 targets just two seasons ago. Now Hyde is by no means a prolific receiver, but he’s at least proven capable of handling the volume. Hyde is a talented runner and would be an immediate RB1 if Williams went down and there’s the added possibility he works his way into a relevant role, which would be enough to beat his double-digit round ADP.

Adrian Peterson (WAS)
I hate that 87-year-old Adrian Peterson is on this list. I absolutely ripped the AP signing last year, proclaimed him “done,” and thought he would be terrible. He wasn’t very good, but he was way better than I expected.

The Redskins’ offensive line can never seem to stay healthy, but the leading driver of fantasy points for running backs is volume. AP is going to see volume. Why is Derrius Guice being drafted as if he is a sure thing to be healthy and AP isn’t there? It doesn’t make sense.

Peterson is going to open the season as the lead back and would be my bet to lead the team in running back touches. On volume alone, he can find his way to low-end RB2 production and you can know when to start him based upon each projected game script using Vegas lines. Peterson was significantly more productive in games the Redskins won. He’s not a league winner, but he’s a good value.

Peyton Barber (TB)
The whole Peyton Barber/Ronald Jones situation makes no sense. Last season, Barber touched the ball 254 times. I know he was not very productive in fantasy football, averaging just 9.5 PPR PPG (points per game). However, Barber was 10th in the league with 39 red zone touches.

Given his volume, he is due for some positive touchdown regression and the Bucs’ offense projects to be even better this year due to the ascendance of Chris Godwin and Bruce Arians’ desire to push the ball downfield. It seems the issue surrounding Barber is the presence of Ronald Jones. Let me state this as clearly as I can: Ronald Jones is terrible at football and probably should not even be in the NFL. He is very, very bad. Jones had every opportunity to push a replacement-level talent in Barber to the sidelines and couldn’t do it.

What is going to change this year? Barber is replacement level. Jones is below replacement level. Much like AP, Barber is not winning you any leagues, but he can easily see his PPG rise a point or two from 2018 and be outperform is incredibly low ADP.

Jamaal Williams (GB)
Another player I don’t particularly like is Williams. That seems to be the trend here — players I don’t like, but whose values I recognize. So let me see if I understand this correctly, Aaron Jones is a third/fourth-round pick, but Williams is barely even being drafted?

Jones is a significantly more talented player than Williams. We can get that out of the way right now. As we know, talent does not drive fantasy production – volume does. Let’s compare Williams and Jones.

Both players have been in the league for two seasons. Williams was drafted a full round ahead of Jones. Williams has played 31 regular-season games. Jones has played 22 games.

In 2017, Jones got the first crack at the starting role and performed well. However, once he went down with an injury, Williams took over and never gave it back. In 2018, the two opened in a split that Jones eventually won. Jones again got hurt and Williams took over and performed well. There was a clear desire to push Jones ahead of Williams last year, but Jones couldn’t stay on the field and Williams was good enough when forced into action.

What’s different in 2019? Jones is going to open the season as the starter, but are we so sure he is going to stay on the field? We’ve seen Williams produce as an RB2 before. Williams is basically free in fantasy drafts and is one injury from an injury-prone player away from having weekly value. That’s worth a dart throw.

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Jason Katz is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Jason, check out his archive or follow him @jasonkatz13.