Most Accurate Experts vs. Consensus Rankings (Fantasy Football)

Jul 23, 2019

Antonio Callaway should be going a lot earlier than he currently is

Who doesn’t want to be victorious over their leaguemates at the end of the season? If your goal is to triumph over your adversaries, claim the title, and hoist the trophy come the beginning of January (and let’s be honest, it sure is), then you’ve come to the right place! 2018’s most accurate experts across the industry dominated their drafts last year, and they’re now here to give you crucial advice that could set you up to crush your opponents on draft day. By comparing their rankings against our Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR), they’ve identified outliers that would potentially be missed otherwise, and have explained why they are higher on these athletes than the industry. Look below to find out which players you might want to consider targeting this summer.

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Q. Based on our latest consensus rankings what one player are you much higher on and why?

Antonio Callaway (WR – CLE)
Consensus: WR76
“Let’s say you’re a defensive coordinator facing the Browns. You need to devote two to Odell Beckham, but you can’t completely abandon the box because you’ve got to worry about Nick Chubb and his 5.2 yards per carry, and at some point, Kareem Hunt as well. You also can’t forget about Jarvis Landry or you’re giving up easy first downs all day, and on top of that, David Njoku is probably a mismatch on your top coverage linebacker or safety. Who are you most likely to single cover? Callaway.

Once Freddie Kitchens took over, Callaway caught 23-of-35 (65.7%) from Baker Mayfield for 350 yards (15.2 YPR, 10.0 YPT) and three touchdowns. Callaway’s average depth of target was 14.2 yards over that span, per AirYards.com, and Mayfield’s 107.6 deep passer rating on the year ranked seventh among 35 qualified QBs, per Pro Football Focus. Also working in Callaway’s favor is that year two is when wide receivers tend to make the biggest jump — and though he went in Round 4, he’s more of a Round 1-2 talent that dropped for off-field concerns. Callaway’s ADP is barely inside the top 200 overall and the top 80 WRs, but I have him as a top-150 pick and top-60 WR.”
– Chris Raybon (The Action Network)

Larry Fitzgerald (WR – ARI)
Consensus: WR41
“I don’t know about much higher, but I’m higher on Fitzgerald than the rest. Good ol’ boring Larry Fitz, heading into season No. 16, and coming off one of his worst campaigns to date. Fitz had 40 fewer catches and 49 fewer targets in 2018 compared to 2017, and he still finished as a top-30 WR in half-PPR settings. He’ll likely fall down draft boards in your average league, but Fitz will benefit from much better play at QB, and Kyler Murray will learn to lean on the reliable Fitzgerald, who had three straight 100-catch seasons before last year. Arizona wants to run an up-tempo style of offense and I expect them to score a few more points with Kliff Kingsbury in town. This isn’t a sexy name by any means, but sometimes you just have to take what the draft gives you, and WR42 for Fitz is a steal. A couple sexier names include Sterling Shepard, DaeSean Hamilton, and Donte Moncrief.”
– Chris Meaney (The Athletic)

Damien Williams (RB – KC)
Consensus: RB13
“Since the dawn of time, running backs in Andy Reid’s offense produce top-tier stats in the PPR format and with Williams earning the Chiefs’ lead back role, the sixth year back with minimal tread on his tires will be an absolute stud in 2019. When taking over the KC RB1 role in 2018 (Weeks 13-16) he caught more passes, had more receiving yards, and more receiving touchdowns than Saquon Barkley and had more rushing yards than Alvin Kamara, while ranking fifth for all running backs in fantasy points. Even with a regression for Kansas City’s offense in 2019, Williams will still be one of the most consistent and productive running backs in fantasy.”
– Bill Enright (FFChamps)

Geronimo Allison (WR – GB)
Consensus: WR45
“Allison is my 66th-overall player and No. 29 receiver, yet he’s 109th overall and the 45th receiver in the consensus rankings. Allison, as the No. 2 receiver in Green Bay, was off to a hot start last year despite Aaron Rodgers‘ bum knee, catching 19 passes for 289 yards, two touchdowns in his first four games. He tore his groin after that, but he and Rodgers are now healthy. Playing in one of the top offenses in the NFL, Allison could have a big season, especially with Randall Cobb gone.”
– Walter Cherepinsky (WalterFootball)

Mike Williams (WR – LAC)
Consensus: WR27
“The stars are aligned for a healthy Williams to be a big fantasy contributor this season. While the Chargers didn’t give Williams many chances (66 targets) to make an impact in 2018, they did look for him in the end zone when they reached the 20-yard line. The loss of Tyrell Williams gives him the needed bump in opportunity to see several hundred more snaps this season (62% snap share to 79% snap share). That extra time on the field will produce 130+ targets and should result in mid-tier WR2 numbers fairly easily.”
– Staff Rankings (FullTime Fantasy)

Chris Carson (RB – SEA)
Consensus: RB26
“Carson’s injury situation and fantasy owners’ infatuation with Penny have blinded many to how good Carson was as a pure runner. He finished the season with seven-straight weeks finishing inside the top 24 among running backs and was the only back in football with three straight weeks inside the top seven to end the year. He’s a bruising, punishing runner who will get 16-18 carries weekly, with plenty left over for Penny.”
– Andy Holloway (The Fantasy Footballers)

Tyrell Williams (WR – OAK)
Consensus: WR60
“The Raiders lost ~350 targets from last season. Sure, Antonio Brown will see a good chunk of those, but Williams didn’t sign a four-year, $44 million deal to block. The 27-year-old has a 1,000-yard season in his past and owns a career yards per catch mark of 16.3. He’ll provide splash plays for an offense that’s paper-thin beyond its top-two targets.”
– Kevin English (Draft Sharks)

Mark Ingram (RB – BAL)
Consensus: RB23
“I’ve been harping on about this all offseason long, but Ingram’s ADP seems totally out of whack. While I anticipate the Ravens will throw the ball more this season in Lamar Jackson’s second year, they basically ran a service academy offense last season and then proceeded to make Ingram a top-15 RB in the NFL in total contract value. And unlike Gus Edwards, Ingram has pedigree as a receiver as well. Even if you’re bullish on Jackson as a passer, any offense with him under center will run the ball more than the typical NFL offense. I think this could be a huge campaign for Ingram behind a strong offensive line with a creative run designer in Greg Roman calling the plays.”
– Joseph Dolan (Fantasy Free Agents)

Tevin Coleman (RB – SF)
Consensus: RB30
“Coleman is currently being ranked as the RB30 in half-PPR leagues, but I think he should be a low-end RB2 as the probable lead back on an improved San Francisco offense. While Jerick McKinnon and Matt Breida will both be involved, Coleman is the healthiest of the bunch and has experience in Kyle Shanahan’s system from their time together in Atlanta. Overall, I think the 26-year-old can reach 1,000 total yards and double-digit touchdowns this season.”
– Dylan Chappine (White Wolf Sports)

Amari Cooper (WR – DAL)
Consensus: WR13
“I have Cooper as my seventh-ranked wide receiver and 20th overall. Cooper will benefit from an entire season with Dallas and should see an increase in targets per game in the seven-to-10 range. Cooper finished as the eighth-best wide receiver in half-PPR formats last season during Weeks 9-17, his nine games with Dallas. 1,500+ receiving yards is possible in 2019.”
– Jeff Boggis (Fantasy Football Empire)


Thank you to the experts for identifying players they like much more compared to the consensus. Please give them a follow on Twitter for more great advice and subscribe/listen to our latest podcast below for more fantasy info.

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