A pair of top-20 pitching prospects headline this week’s touted pitchers. One is a repeat-visiting southpaw, and the other is a flame-throwing righty who is set to make his MLB debut Wednesday. The picks are rounded out by a veteran who has a lengthy history of underperforming his ERA estimators. This season is no exception for the 30-year-old hurler, but that doesn’t prevent him from being a useful deep-league option after accounting for the gap in his actual production and metrics.
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Jesus Luzardo (OAK): Yahoo – 31%, ESPN – 11%
A couple of weeks ago, I suggested adding Luzardo in leagues as shallow as 12-team mixers. In that piece, I discussed his prospect pedigree and preseason ranks at the major prospect-evaluating outlets as well as scouting grades from MLB Pipeline. As opposed to rehashing those things, I suggest reading those thoughts here.
If you clicked on the MLB Pipeline link and searched through the top-100 prospects, you didn’t have to search long before finding Luzardo. He currently ranks as the 15th-best prospect. Since I last discussed him, he’s made three starts at Triple-A. His first was shaky, as he coughed up two runs on five hits, two walks, and one wild pitch in 3.1 innings pitched. He threw 61 pitches in that start, according to MiLB.com. Stretched out to 66 pitches in his next start, he was much better. The southpaw pitched five innings of two-run ball on four hits, zero walks, one wild pitch, and four strikeouts. In Tuesday night’s last start, he allowed just one run (a solo homer) on two hits and zero walks with five strikeouts. After those three turns, he owns a gaudy 17.5% SwStr rate, according to FanGraphs.
The A’s won’t rush Luzardo, but they do have a gaping hole in their rotation as the result of a recent 80-game suspension levied against Frankie Montas, who tested positive for a banned substance. It intiially looked like Luzardo could be up immediately after the All-Star break, but he will be re-evaluated Wednesday after experiencing lat tightness. Barring a significant setback, he’s worth scooping up in 12-team mixers.
Dylan Cease (CHW): Yahoo – 29%, ESPN – 8%
Back in late May, I discussed Cease as a deep-league option who was best monitored in leagues shallower than 14-team mixers. The thinking was that he’d be a prime call-up candidate after the All-Star break. As it turns out, he’s going to debut just before the intermission. The No. 18 prospect on MLB Pipeline’s top-100 list is starting game one of Wednesday’s doubleheader against the Tigers. This isn’t discussed as a spot-start, meaning he should get the opportunity to work through the hiccups and jitters that frequently accompany a prospect reaching The Show.
The struggles could be plentiful for the 23-year-old righty. In six starts since I first discussed Cease, he’s coughed up 19 runs (18 earned runs) in only 24.1 innings. That amounts to a 6.66 ERA. During that stretch, he totaled an 11.9 BB% and 17.0 K%. Neither of those numbers does much to inspire confidence in his fantasy viability, even in deep leagues. Having said that, it’s unwise to rely completely on statistics when analyzing a prospect.
Yes, it’s preferred for a prospect to play at his best before he gets called to the bigs. Struggles don’t necessarily preclude them from eventually succeeding, though. It’s unknown to anyone outside of the White Sox organization what was asked of Cease. Perhaps his struggles were the product of organizational expectations. You might be wondering, what does that mean? It could mean he was tasked with throwing his worst offering in two-strike counts in order to become more comfortable using it. That particular hypothetical situation would help explain the low strikeout percentage despite a fastball that MLB Pipeline grades a 70 on the 20-to-80 scale and a curve that grades out as a 65.
It’s also entirely possible he’s not ready for this promotion and will get knocked around. I wouldn’t advise adding him in leagues shallower than 12-team mixers. However, gamers in 14-team mixers or deeper who are in need of pitching help should scoop him up. The most desperate of those managers can start him in a cushy matchup Wednesday afternoon, but I’d suggest adding him and benching him to evaluate his debut.
Michael Pineda (MIN): Yahoo – 18%, ESPN – 10%
Pineda is sort of the modern version of Ricky Nolasco. The latter long failed to live up to his sterling ERA estimators. Pineda owns a career 4.13 ERA that’s well above his 3.68 FIP, 3.47 xFIP, and 3.49 SIERA. To chalk this gap up to bad luck after 700-plus innings is unwise. This year, he has an ugly 4.78 ERA. After pitching just 12.0 innings in the minors last year in his rehab from Tommy John surgery, he might have been shaking off the rust from his lengthy absence early in the year.
In the veteran righty’s last nine starts spanning 52.2 innings, he has a 3.93 ERA (4.19 SIERA), 0.97 WHIP, 2.9 BB%, and 21.5 K%. Pineda’s aversion to issuing free passes bodes well for him continuing to be an asset in WHIP. During that stretch, he has a 12.8% SwStr rate that also shows some untapped strikeout upside. I don’t expect him to maintain a sub-4.00 ERA, but the underlying stats suggest he’s capable of hovering around that mark while helping in WHIP and strikeouts. Pineda is worth rostering in 14-team mixers and deeper leagues. He’s also a streaming option for Friday’s start at home against the Rangers. While they are tied for eighth with a 105 wRC+ against righties, they own just a 97 wRC+ and 28.0 K% away from their hitter-friendly home digs.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
