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RB3s With RB1 Potential (2019 Fantasy Football)

RB3s With RB1 Potential (2019 Fantasy Football)

Last week we asked our writers to identify players that are currently considered WR3s based on current ADP who carry WR1 upside. This week, we’re turning our attention to the backfield. Here’s a look at RB3s with RB1 potential, based on our consensus ADP.

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Which player outside the top 30 RBs has the best chance to finish as an RB1 for the season?

Rashaad Penny (SEA): ADP RB34
With the amount of RBBCs around the NFL today, it’s tough to find a bonafide number one anywhere in the league, let alone outside of the top 30 RBs. With that being said like we saw last year with James White and his ADP of 42 finishing the year as the seventh-ranked RB in PPR formats, it is possible for players to make big leaps based off of their preseason predictions. Looking outside of the top 30 this year, Seattle Seahawks former first-round pick Rashaad Penny seems to be the most likely to make the leap to RB1 status. He had a bit of a tumultuous freshman campaign that was hampered by hand and knee injuries, but when he was on the field he was very productive. An excellent athlete, Penny showcased his ability with (according to PlayerProfiler.com) the sixth-best breakaway run rate in the league and was very evasive, adding 1.6 yards per carry after evading the first would-be tackler. Though he is currently behind Chris Carson on the depth chart, the latter’s extensive injury history could move Penny into a lead-back role sooner rather than later. If that does happen, Penny would be taking over a Seattle backfield that is very inclined — to the tune of 534 run plays in 2018 — to keep the ball on the ground. Even though he’s not currently slated to be a starter, Rashaad Penny could be a top fantasy option this year if all falls into place.
– Brian Rzeppa (@brianrzeppa)

Carlos Hyde (KC): ADP RB46
If we’re looking for running backs outside of the top 30 who have the best chance to finish as an RB1, the logical place to start is with ball-carriers who have actually, y’know, finished as RB1s before. In 2017, Carlos Hyde was the eighth-highest scoring rusher in PPR (and the year prior he finished as a rock-solid RB2). Of all the late-round ball carriers, Hyde arguably has the best track record of success, despite a dismal 2018 split between the Cleveland Browns and Jacksonville Jaguars. Chiefs GM Brett Veach has said the starting job is Damien Williams’ to lose following his scorching hot finish to last season. But Williams has never totaled more than 50 carries during his five-year career nor 13 carries in a regular-season game. He’s a complete question mark as a team’s top option, while Hyde has proven himself capable of handling 200-plus carries multiple times. Even as a No. 2 handcuff in KC’s elite offense, Hyde carries value. Should Williams get hurt or lose Andy Reid’s confidence, Hyde would fall into the most coveted fantasy situation in the league. Over the past 12 regular seasons, Reid-led running back units are averaging 17.3 offensive touchdowns per season, and since Reid took over in KC, Chiefs’ RBs rank among the top five in YPC, rushing TDs, red zone targets, receiving TDs, and fantasy points. Yes, Hyde has seen a drop in efficiency in three straight seasons, but he’s walking into the most fantasy-friendly environment for RBs in the NFL and sits behind an unproven option. At his current cost as RB46, why not take a low-cost flier?
– Brandon Katz (@great_katzby)

Ronald Jones (TB): ADP RB39
Oh, how quickly people forget about players in fantasy football. At the beginning of draft season last year, Jones was a top-50 pick. How many times have we seen a guy come out in his sophomore year after a disappointing rookie season and redeem himself? That’s what I expect to see here, as Jones is easily the most talented back on this roster.
– Joel Bartilotta (@Bartilottajoel)

Latavius Murray (NO): ADP RB36
Murray is currently going off the board as RB36 and replaces Mark Ingram in the Saints’ high-powered rushing attack. Ingram, a former RB1 alongside Alvin Kamara in 2017, has a successor coming into the fold with a penchant for the end zone. Murray has averaged eight TDs per year over the last four seasons and always hovers around the 4.0 YPC mark. That’s not sexy…but it’s effective. Sean Payton and company have run the ball a lot more in recent years, and they love to run frequently inside the red zone. As a huge banger, he’s not only a nice compliment to Kamara, but he’s built to handle carries. He should see a majority of the vacated touches from Ingram. Keep in mind Ingram was out the first four games of 2018 and that perks up the projections a bit as well. I love Murray at his current ADP and would invest in him for best ball leagues as well with the potential for a dozen rushing scores. He’s reliable — has only fumbled once in the last two seasons (356 carries) — and should get a very valuable workload for his fantasy owners in 2019.
– Josh Dalley (@JoshDalley72)

Last year, Mark Ingram was going 51st overall with an ADP of RB22, despite being suspended four games. His 2019 successor, Latavius Murray, is going 32 picks later and 36th at the position. It’s hard to imagine the Saints gave Murray a hefty contract to ride the bench. Oh, and he’ll also be the same age for the 2019 season as Ingram was in 2018 — with significantly less mileage. There’s enough pie in the New Orleans running game to feed two backs — as evidenced by both Kamara and Ingram finishing inside the top six in 2017. If it even exists, the talent gap between Ingram and Murray is minimal, and the latter has produced when called upon. In standard formats, Murray has produced double-digit points in 21 of the 32 games (66%) in which he has received at least 15 carries. He has put up at least 14 points in 17 of those games and posted below 7.5 points just 16 percent of the time. If the second half of the 2018 season proved anything, it’s that the Saints are better off giving Alvin Kamara a balanced workload. Murray is getting drafted well below his floor, and he has a very realistic top-12 ceiling.
– Elisha Twerski (@ElishaTwerski)

Jaylen Samuels (PIT): ADP RB44
The truth is that based on the current ADP, it’s probably Darrell Henderson because if Todd Gurley’s knee really is broken, Henderson is the lead back in a top-five offense. Instead, I chose someone more fitting of the spirit of the question. Jaylen Samuels has so many things going for him. He is an elite receiver, having played running back, wide receiver, and tight end in college. He has a three-down skill set and can handle a full workload, which he displayed last season while James Conner was out with a sprained ankle. He is on one of the league’s best offenses that really lacks any offensive playmakers outside of JuJu Smith-Schuster. There have already been reports of the Steelers looking to put Samuels and Conner on the field at the same time. If Conner suffers a season-ending injury, Samuels is a likely RB1. If Conner misses a few weeks, Samuels could just take the job. Conner does not have draft capital to fall back on. And what if Samuels just outplays Conner and forces his way into more touches? There are so many paths to Samuels being an excellent fantasy asset.
– Jason Katz (@jasonkatz13)

Miles Sanders (PHI): ADP RB31
Many are expecting a pretty even timeshare in the Philadelphia backfield between Miles Sanders and Jordan Howard, which is reasonable given Howard’s production in Chicago. Something to note, though, is how much of Howard’s declining numbers were due to a continuous drop in efficiency both rushing and receiving the ball. Howard had just 11 fewer touches last season than he did his rookie year when he was second in the league in rushing. His touches were similar, but he put up just 1,080 total yards last year after totaling 1,611 as a rookie. The rest of the Bears’ offense improved in Matt Nagy’s system, so there’s understandably doubts about where he rates as a player. The Eagles invested a second-round draft pick in Miles Sanders, as opposed to a future sixth for Howard. Sanders took over for Penn State after Saquon Barkley left and topped his rushing total on just three more carries. He’s not the dynamic weapon out of the backfield that Barkley was, but he’s more likely to fill the role than Howard as he is much more effective in space. With a healthy Jason Peters, nobody will argue that Philadelphia owns one of, if not the best offensive line in the league. With Wendell Smallwood running the show things were a disaster, but this running game was third in the league in yards the year prior. The Eagles have no real vested interest in Howard’s development as a player, but a lot in Sanders. Those things matter, especially when deciding who will be given valuable touches in a high-powered offense.
– James Esposito (@PropZillaa)

Gus Edwards (BAL): ADP RB68
Edwards faces a lot of competition that was not on the roster last year with the additions of veteran RB Mark Ingram and the drafting of RB Justice Hill. Those backs could eat into his playing time, but before we just give away Edwards’ starting job, let’s consider his competition. Ingram is 29 years old, he has had injury issues in past seasons, and he did not play like a dominant running back in many of his games for the New Orleans Saints last year. The Ravens only gave him a three-year deal worth $15 million with not enough guaranteed money to give him a starting job if Edwards outperforms him in training camp. Hill was drafted in the fourth round, and he is going to make a base salary of $495,000. The Ravens are under no pressure to start him over Edwards, either. Edwards does have a chance to win this starting job with a good training camp, and I feel that potential outcome has largely been ignored this offseason. Edwards has instead been relegated to camp body on many draft boards instead of being viewed as a running back that had a successful rookie season, reduced his body fat this offseason, and worked on his receiving ability. Edwards is one of the best values in fantasy football this year because he can be had for next to nothing and his upside in that offense is through the roof if he ends up being the starter. I would not draft him as though he will average 93 yards per game rushing this year, as he did over the last seven games of last season. I do not have to do that though, because his current ADP of 224 makes him waiver wire material. If he starts 16 games this year, he has a great chance to finish the season as one of the best running backs in fantasy football. He is one of those bargain players this year that can emerge as one of the best players in fantasy football.
– Derek Lofland (@DerekLofland)

Tevin Coleman (SF): ADP RB30
There are a few interesting candidates, but the one name that stands out is Tevin Coleman. If he can manage to stay healthy, he should get all the work he can handle in the 49ers’ backfield. The Niners top three backs are all good receivers, but Coleman may be best suited for a lead back role. Matt Breida is constantly banged up, and Jerick McKinnon was a backup-level runner even before his torn ACL. Remember, Coleman was handpicked by Shanahan when he was a member of the Atlanta Falcons coaching staff. The only thing keeping Coleman from the top-15 or top-20 in ADP is the crowded backfield he appears mired in. When in doubt, bet on talent. Especially when that talent is reuniting with a coach that made him look like one of the most explosive weapons in the league. In a lead back role, Coleman could push for 250+ touches and vie for an RB1 finish.
– Raju Byfield (@FantasyContext)

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