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12 Overvalued Players (Fantasy Football)

Aug 18, 2019

The Jets’ poor offense might prevent Le’Veon Bell from making good on his RB6 ADP

Identifying which players are likely to underperform vs. their Average Draft Position (ADP) is essential if you don’t want to kill your championship hopes before the season even starts. With the draft season now fully underway, both hardcore and casual fantasy owners alike are putting in plenty of time and effort to make sure they have some idea of which athletes to steer clear of, but that’s no easy task.

Player ADPs can be propped up by flat-out false coachspeak, too much hype, or new situations that fantasy owners are too optimistic on. Murky depth charts, unclear injury timetables, and risky holdout situations can result in athletes finishing the season far below their ADP as well. With so many things to consider, we decided to make it easy and consult the wisdom of our featured experts. Each one chose a QB, RB, and WR you’d be wise to fade in your upcoming drafts. See who their most overvalued players are below.

View real time recommendations for each pick with our Draft Assistant >>

Q1. Who is the most overvalued RB based on his current Half-PPR ADP and why?

Le’Veon Bell (NYJ)
ADP: 7th Overall | RB6
“I want to make this one meaningful because there are a lot of running backs you can say are overvalued in the middle rounds, but are you really risking anything to get them there? Because of that, I’ll go with Bell due to where he’s being drafted, which is as the No. 7 overall player. Did you know that over the last seven years, there hasn’t been a single running back who’s finished inside the top six in points per game while playing on a team whose offense ranks outside the top 16 in scoring? Do you believe the Jets are going to be top 16? Even if Bell is a phenomenal talent (he is), we’ve seen this happen before as recently as last year with the uber-talented David Johnson. Bell may wind up posting low-end RB1 numbers, but he’s not someone you should be spending a first-round pick on. Just ask Johnson owners who drafted him in the first round last year.”
– Mike Tagliere (FantasyPros)

Melvin Gordon (LAC)
ADP: 24th Overall | RB13
“If Gordon is still going just outside the top 12 at the position, that’s a mistake. By all accounts, he’s digging his heels in and holding out until he gets a new deal, which seems quite unlikely at this point. Even before the holdout talk, I thought Gordon was being overdrafted as the RB5 or RB6 early this summer. His 14 touchdowns seem unsustainable when considering he was barely inside the top 40 in goal-line carries, only having a total of five goal-line totes. No other running back with 10 scores had fewer than 10 goal-line carries.”
– Ryan Noonan (The Quant Edge)

Kareem Hunt (CLE)
ADP: 102nd Overall | RB38
“Melvin Gordon is the easy answer until he actually shows up to training camp, but instead I’ll go with Hunt. He is guaranteed to miss eight games because of his suspension. Last I checked, that’s half a season. Yes, Duke Johnson has been traded, but it’s not like Nick Chubb is just going to cede a bunch of touches to Hunt once he’s eligible to play. So to see Hunt in the same range as backups that aren’t required to miss eight games seems a little silly to me.”
– Mark Ross (Athlon Sports)

Todd Gurley (LAR)
ADP: 14th Overall | RB10
“He has the upside to finish as the RB1 if he returns to his past usage rates, but what part of ‘arthritic knee’ suggests this is possible? There are safer options you can make with the 14th pick than a running back whose real upside is ~250 touches and 10+ touchdowns, in my opinion.”
– Rudy Gamble (Razzball)

Q2. Who is the most overvalued WR based on his current Half-PPR ADP and why?

Kenny Golladay (DET)
ADP: 42nd Overall | WR19
“I’m going to say that Golladay’s price tag makes little sense. Before combating with me, ask yourself this: Do you believe the Lions are going to be a good offense? Do you believe they’ll be in the top half of the league? You likely answered no to both of those questions, which brings me to my point that each wide receiver who finished inside the top 17 last year played for a top-18 scoring offense. This is a common theme over the years, though maybe not to that extreme. Golladay is a solid player, but let’s not forget about Marvin Jones, who was arguably the team’s top wide receiver when both were on the field last year. While that’s likely going to shift, the gap in their ADP is accounting for a full-on takeover by Golladay. His current price tag of WR19 is attainable if that happens, but you could argue that you’re drafting him near his ceiling given the state of the offense.”
– Mike Tagliere (FantasyPros)

Calvin Ridley (ATL)
ADP: 57th Overall | WR24
“Ridley had a fine rookie season, highlighted by his 10 touchdowns. However, six of those came in a three-game span, he had just one 100-yard game the entire season, and he posted seven games with 40 or fewer yards. Julio Jones is clearly the man in Atlanta, Mohamed Sanu and Austin Hooper will get their opportunities, and a healthy Devonta Freeman will factor into the passing game as well. I just don’t see Ridley being able to perform as a top-25 wide receiver because so much of his production last season was tied to touchdowns.”
– Mark Ross (Athlon Sports)

Amari Cooper (DAL)
ADP: 35th Overall | WR13
“He had four top-20 weeks last year, with two being WR1-worthy. The weekly consistency is not there. Jason Garrett and Dak Prescott do not inspire a lot of confidence (we’ll see Kellen Moore). I see the upside if Moore uses Cooper heavily in the slot and/or heavily targets him, but I think there are safer bets that can be had around Cooper’s ADP.”
– Rudy Gamble (Razzball)

D.K. Metcalf (SEA)
ADP: 121st Overall | WR46
“I’ll piggyback my overvalued quarterback selection here and go with Metcalf. At WR46, he’s in flex territory, and I think that’s his ceiling this season if all were to break right for the Adonis-like rookie. He’s going ahead of Michael Gallup, James Washington, Anthony Miller, and the Packers’ duo of Geronimo Allison and Marquez Valdes-Scantling, which is a mistake.”
– Ryan Noonan (The Quant Edge)

Note: D.K. Metcalf will have surgery on his knee Tuesday. Pete Carroll is hopeful he can return for Week 1, but there is no timetable as of this writing. 

Q3. Who is the most overvalued QB based on his current ADP and why?

Drew Brees (NO)
ADP: 85th Overall | QB7
“As much as it pains me to say, it has to be Brees. He’s currently being drafted as the No. 7 quarterback, which is likely six-to-eight spots too high. Brees is one of the best quarterbacks the game has ever seen, but he’s now over 40 years old and plays for a Saints offense that has rapidly declined its pass attempts. Did you know Brees has been a top-12 performer in less than 50 percent of his games over the last two years? Instead of taking the aging quarterback, take a different one who comes much later, with a much higher ceiling.”
– Mike Tagliere (FantasyPros)

Russell Wilson (SEA)
ADP: 88th Overall | QB8
“It’s difficult for me to justify Wilson as a top-10 quarterback in fantasy. Seattle was, and likely will be again, one of the run-heaviest teams in the league. Despite that, Wilson cracked the top-10 last season, buoyed by an unsustainable 8.2% touchdown rate (the league average was 4.4%). 16 quarterbacks started every regular-season game last season, and Wilson (427 passing attempts) was the only one with under 500 passing attempts.”
– Ryan Noonan (The Quant Edge)

Cam Newton (CAR)
ADP: 90th Overall | QB10
“Newton’s had an amazing fantasy football career propelled by designed rushes and a large share of the team’s rushing touchdowns. Given his shoulder injury plus Christian McCaffrey/Cameron Artis-Payne, his 488 rushing yards from last season is an absolute ceiling for 2019. He was the QB2 in 2017 on the back of 752 rushing yards and that isn’t happening again. There’s no reason to believe he will suddenly be a greater asset in passing given his shoulder injury.”
– Rudy Gamble (Razzball)

Aaron Rodgers (GB)
ADP: 49th Overall | QB3
“The Rodgers/Matt LaFleur marriage just doesn’t seem to be getting off to the smoothest of starts. But more importantly, you have Rodgers in a new offense working with a lack of proven options not named Davante Adams. I’m not saying Rodgers is going to be a bust, but I would hesitate to anoint him as the No. 3 quarterback on the board right now.”
– Mark Ross (Athlon Sports)

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