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Fantasy Football Kicker Primer: Week 1

Fantasy Football Kicker Primer: Week 1

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As we enter the 2019 fantasy football draft season and millions of people around the World study data, read articles, listen to podcasts, and conduct mock drafts after mock drafts, almost nobody spends time researching kickers.

I get it.

Kickers are boring, and a ton of people have changed their league settings to get rid of kickers and defenses. As the NFL continues to move to a pass-happy league with rules benefitting quarterbacks and wide receivers, the anti-kicker movement continues to build momentum in the fantasy football community. For the folks who still have kickers as a scoring option, this kicker draft primer will get you set for your drafts.

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When approaching kickers in the draft, I like to break down the pool of players into must own weekly starters and streamers. Some people like the security of using something other than their final pick of the draft to choose a kicker like Greg Zuerlein, who will be a weekly must-start regardless of matchup. While others like to draft based on Week 1 matchups with the intention of streaming a new kicker each week.

Regardless of where you fall on the kicker spectrum, this primer will give you all the information you need to make an educated selection this year. I will also include a few kickers who could be the Ka’imi Fairbairn breakout kicker of 2019.

Set it and Forget it

Last season I developed the K Score metric to identify potential value in kickers ranked outside the top 12 ECR on FantasyPros each week. Using different variables, including opponent defensive red zone efficiency, offensive red zone efficiency, team offense rank, and accuracy, I was able to successfully pick at player 70% of the time. It is not a perfect science, but the K Score did prove to be successful and hopefully helped many of you find kicker steals like Fairbairn and Jason Myers.

While studying kicker data from the previous six seasons to identify trends, it became clear early on that a kicker on a high scoring team is going to be a viable fantasy kicker based on high levels of extra points (as long as they were not terrible like Chris Boswell). It also held true that kickers who play on teams who rank in the top 10 in yards per game were likely to finish as a top 10 kicker based on the fact that their team provided enough movement of the football to get substantial field goal opportunities.

The Holy Grail of kickers turned out to be a player who plays on a high scoring team that moves the ball a ton, but struggles in the red zone. Not only does this player (Greg Zuerlein) get the benefit of a high floor of extra points, he benefits from more scoring chances than other players because his respective offense is so good.

These five kickers are set it and forget it players who should be drafted first among kickers because they play on a top-10 offense or play for a team like the Texans who continue to be near the bottom of the pack in red-zone efficiency.

  1. Greg Zuerlein
  2. Ka’imi Fairbairn
  3. Justin Tucker
  4. Will Lutz
  5. Harrison Butker

Among these elite kickers, Greg Zuerlein is head and shoulders above the competition and should be drafted a few rounds before the others. Greg the Leg benefits from playing on a team that has ranked in the top five in both yards and points per game, and the Rams under Sean McVay and Jared Goff continually rank in the middle of the pack in red-zone efficiency. Add in the fact that Zuerlein has one of the biggest legs in the league and is above average in accuracy, and you have the perfect storm for fantasy kicker production.

Week One Gems

The primary focus of the K Score is to identify streaming kicker options for owners who miss out on one of the set it and forget it players. If you miss out on any of the kickers listed above, it makes more sense to stream the position and target a kicker in your draft who has an attractive Week 1 matchup.

Although he finished as a top-five kicker last season and earned a trip to the Pro Bowl, the fantasy community appears to be down on Aldrick Rosas based on his 17th overall ECR ranking. Rosas proved to be a fantasy stud last year because he was the second-most accurate kicker in the league behind only Robbie Gould. He also benefitted from playing on an Eli Manning-led offense that was one of the worst in the red zone, despite moving the ball between the 20s fairly well as the No. 17th ranked offense in yards per game.

While I don’t think the Giants will make drastic improvements offensively that would make Rosas an elite option, there is little evidence based on their offseason moves that would suggest an improvement in red-zone efficiency.

As long as Rosas continues to be one of the more accurate kickers in the league, his road matchup indoors against a Cowboys defense that excels in red-zone efficiency over the past two seasons should present a favorable matchup.

Here are a few other Week 1 gems who are not currently ranked in the top five on most expert’s draft boards.

  1. Robbie Gould @ Tampa Bay
  2. Matt Bryant @ Minnesota
  3. Jake Elliott vs. Washington
  4. Greg Joseph vs. Tennessee

Kickers on the Rise

When looking for a possible breakout kicker the first place to look is at teams with offenses that appear to be on the rise, like the Cleveland Browns with the addition of Odell Beckham Jr and the Arizona Cardinals with Kyler Murray.

The Tampa Bay Bucs appear to be another team that could make improvements to their offense with the addition of head coach Bruce Arians and Jameis Winston the clear starting QB heading into the season. However, the fact that their defense projects to be one of the worst units in the league could result in blowouts and chasing points, two things that are not great for kicker production.

A dark horse kicker that many people will not have high on their draft boards is Jason Sanders in Miami. Outside of a 2015 top-3 finish in red-zone efficiency when he was the signal-caller for the Jets, Ryan Fitzpatrick-led offenses tend to finish in the middle of the pack in converting drives into touchdowns. The Dolphins are a sneaky team for offensive production in 2019 with Fitzpatrick slinging the ball around, and Jason Sanders made 90% of his attempts last year.

Strategy

Having a strategy for selecting kickers is a foreign concept for most fantasy players, as the assumption that there is little to no difference between kickers is a popular narrative in the industry.

If you have made it this far into my article it is safe to say that you are looking for an edge over your opponents when it comes to drafting kickers. Also, if you have taken the time to read this article, hopefully, I have persuaded you to read my weekly kicker primer that will be published on FantasyPros each week.

My strategy when it comes to kickers in the draft is simple. After filling out my starting roster and a few of my bench players I begin considering taking Greg Zuerlein a few rounds before the last round of the draft. Like Patrick Mahomes at the quarterback position, Zuerlein provides a monster ceiling and an elite level of consistency that garners earlier consideration.

If someone else picks Zuerlein before I do, I then look to draft one of the set it and forget it players listed above in the second to last round, assuming a run on kickers doesn’t take place. A must-start player like Justin Tucker provides a nice level of consistency and peace of mind for owners who don’t want to risk starting a dud streamer.

In most cases, I default to taking one of my Week 1 gems with the intention of using my K Score metric to identify values throughout the year. Regardless of who I pick, I tend to always stay open to the possibility of a breakout waiver wire kicker like Fairbairn emerging, and it is important not to stick with a kicker for too long just because he is ranked high like Chris Boswell last year.

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Andrew Swanson is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive or follow him @FFtoday_Andy.

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