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4 Burning Questions (Fantasy Baseball)

4 Burning Questions (Fantasy Baseball)

The most criticism of Major League Baseball general managers undoubtedly happens every year around the trade deadline. Some is warranted — seriously, why didn’t the Yankees or Cardinals pay more than the Mets for Marcus Stroman? — and some is not. Hey, the Mets might actually make the playoffs. Regardless, it’s a surefire bet the criticism will be there. People love to play GM. Of course, everybody tends to think their opinion is the right one, too. And in comes fantasy baseball. Sorry, most of us aren’t going to be GMs, so what better way to prove your skills than by winning your league? Put your game where your mouth is. Now that the trade deadline has come and gone, it’s do-or-die time, folks. The decisions about to be made will make or break fantasy teams. Just like always, Burning Questions is here to help. Best of luck.

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Is Aaron Sanchez worth picking up?
Two storylines from the 2019 season that hold the most truth are as follows. First, if a player wears an Astros uniform, it’s a job requirement that he consistently pitches lights out. Second, if a player dons a Dodgers uniform, there’s no doubt he will absolutely mash the ball. It’s like both teams have a cheat code or something. So when the Astros acquired Aaron Sanchez at the trade deadline, there was a mix of skepticism based on his year-to-date performance and optimism based on Houston’s ability to get the most out of its pitchers. After one hitless start, that optimism seems real.

Can Sanchez possibly go from having the worst ERA in baseball (among qualified starters) with the Blue Jays to being a quality fantasy pitcher with the Astros? Why yes, he can. Take a look at four other pitchers the Astros acquired over the past few years: Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, Charlie Morton, and Wade Miley. All four of these pitchers came to the Astros having experienced their own recent struggles, and all four of them knocked at least a half a run off their ERA from their previous full season. Cole slashed his ERA from an underwhelming 4.26 in 2017 with the Pirates to 2.88 and a fifth-place AL Cy Young Award finish in his first season with the Astros. What else did they all have in common when joining the Astros? They all had a prior track record of success, just like Sanchez.

To further increase the situation’s intrigue, there have been rumblings that the Astros picked up on correctable flaws within Sanchez’s delivery before acquiring him. If that’s indeed true, watch out, world. With none of that obviously factored in, FIP suggests Sanchez’s 5.76 ERA should be almost a full point lower than it currently is. With the move to Houston, it wouldn’t be a shock to see it drop even lower. Sanchez easily has the potential to pitch to a mid-threes ERA the rest of the way. Based on everything the Astros have proven they can do with starting pitchers, he needs to be owned immediately in all fantasy leagues. Pick him up before it’s too late.

Who is the closer in New York?
If you rolled your eyes and sarcastically said Aroldis Chapman, I like your sense of humor. We’re talking about the Mets, though, and nobody would have guessed that heading into the year. Experts, just like the Mets, have kept advising over and over this season that imploding closer Edwin Diaz should improve. But week after week, Diaz has been a disaster. Lost in the entire chaos that has been the New York Mets is the fact that they’ve been really, really good lately. They’re realistically fighting for a wild-card spot after climbing over .500 Monday.

After another blow-up on Saturday, it seemed like manager Mickey Callaway may have finally had his fill of Diaz in the closer’s role. Diaz had been scored upon in four straight appearances, and his 5.32 ERA has become hard to stomach. That’s especially true when considering how good next-man-up Seth Lugo has been. While Diaz’s WHIP of 1.45 over the last month hurts Mets’ fans eyes, Lugo had given up a total of two baserunners over that time. No wonder Callaway momentarily wouldn’t commit to Diaz as the closer.

Low and behold, however, Diaz pitched one scoreless inning on Monday and all seemed to be repaired. Callaway said after the game that Diaz will continue to close. We’ll see how long that lasts. The Mets need to win every game possible, and Lugo clearly gives them the best chance right now. In the second game of Monday’s doubleheader, he tossed a two-out save to preserve a 5-4 victory. Yet to allow a run since June 29, he needs to be rostered everywhere, now. Whenever Diaz has his next blow-up outing, which seems like a given to happen, Callaway might finally cave. Diaz is currently the closer, but this seems like Lugo’s job down the stretch. 

Which recently promoted prospect offers the most fantasy value?
Isan Diaz and Dustin May, among a handful of other recently promoted prospects, are going to be good MLB players. However, none of them will be as valuable as Trent Grisham the rest of the season. Offense to the Marlins here, but Diaz just won’t offer enough value in that lineup. May likely won’t start long enough for the Dodgers to matter.

Grisham, on the other hand, has the chance to be an everyday player in one of baseball’s best lineups. He has showcased a unique blend of power and speed that all fantasy players drool over. While he will have to hit immediately to become a staple in Milwaukee’s lineup, he no doubt has the potential to do just that. Grisham has combined for 27 home runs and 12 stolen bases across all levels in 2019. Not to mention, he hit for an astronomical .381 AVG in Triple-A. MLB has seen a slew of prospects make successful debuts this season, and Grisham has a chance to be the next name on that list.

Who are some overrated and over-owned fantasy players?

It’s time to cut your losses on these underachieving players.

Matt Carpenter (1B/2B/3B – STL)
Somehow, someway, people are still picking up Carpenter after St. Louis activated him from the IL on Sunday. If his season thus far didn’t do the trick, his 2-for-26 rehab performance should have been more than enough to scare potential owners away. If you picked up or still own Carpenter, don’t give him long to prove himself on your roster. He just doesn’t have it this year.

Rich Hill (SP – LAD)
Even if Hill is just occupying one of your IL slots, you could find someone better. If he returns this season, it won’t be with much time at all remaining. And knowing Hill’s injury history, it wouldn’t be a bit shocking for him to not return at all. Someone like Joey Gallo would be a much better IL stash.

Corey Seager (SS – LAD)
Seager has been just about the only exception to the “all Dodgers must hit” rule. I get it. Seager is a huge name. He just hasn’t been very good at all, and if you need a roster spot, you’re not going to lose much by dropping him. 

Justin Upton (OF – LAA)
Another big name, Upton has given owners absolutely nothing this season. He has always been the type of player who can get hot and put up numbers quickly, but the problem lies in the fact that he isn’t even playing every day right now. It’s hard to hold an ice-cold player who sits out twice a week. Don’t feel bad cutting ties here.

Wade Davis (RP – COL)
The former big-time closer has officially lost his gig, yet he remains almost 70% owned in fantasy leagues. While the Rockies have publicly said they hope Davis eventually regains his closing role, it’s not going to happen; Scott Oberg has just been too good. Drop Davis as soon as possible.

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Alex Altmix is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Alex, check out his archive or follow him @Altmix_23.

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