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Consensus Sleepers from 60+ Experts (2019 Fantasy Football)

Aug 19, 2019

It wouldn’t be surprising to see Devin Singletary leading the Buffalo backfield by midseason

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With us now entering the preseason’s “dress rehearsal” week, there’s no better time than now to find this year’s top sleepers. In today’s world of information overload and instant fantasy advice, one can argue that true sleepers hardly exist anymore. With all the digestible fantasy content out there, almost everyone is being touted by somebody and it’s hard to find players who are wholly flying under the radar. Therefore, what we’ve set out to do is help you identify which players can be snagged later in drafts and have a high chance at outproducing their ADP.

Phillip Lindsay (whose 2018 ADP was 360th overall) was a true sleeper last season, as even the few experts who were high on him didn’t think he’d be anything more than a third-down back. Standouts like that are nearly impossible to predict and are exceptionally rare. However, finding draftable guys with a plausible path to success based on the information out there is very doable. Think along the lines of Patrick Mahomes, Jared Goff, James White, Tarik Cohen, Chris Carson, Nick Chubb, Tyler Lockett, Calvin Ridley, Kenny Golladay, Mike Williams, George Kittle, and Eric Ebron last year. Each of those players had an ADP outside the top-85 overall, but they all became weekly startable options and were touted by some experts during the preseason as athletes with the potential to vastly outperform their ADP.

To find 2019’s most undervalued players, we polled 63 experts on which QB, RB, WR, and TE have the best chance to finish the season far above their half-PPR ADP. We also asked them who their favorite sleeper of 2019 was. Check out their responses below.

Want to see all the votes? Click here to view which experts participated and who they voted for.

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Running Backs

PLAYER TEAM VOTES ECR ADP
Miles Sanders PHI 11 RB32 RB31
Devin Singletary BUF 6 RB50 RB50
Duke Johnson HOU 5 RB44 RB44
Latavius Murray NO 5 RB30 RB37
Darwin Thompson KC 5 RB70 RB61
Matt Breida SF 4 RB39 EB49
Ronald Jones II TB 3 RB42 RB41
Austin Ekeler LAC 3 RB34 RB32
Kalen Ballage MIA 3 RB41 RB48
Royce Freeman DEN 3 RB36 RB40
Justice Hill BAL 3 RB55 RB58
Derrius Guice WAS 2 RB35 RB33

Running backs who received one vote were: Dexter Williams, Ty Montgomery, Qadree Ollison, Carlos Hyde, Jordan Howard, Ryquell Armstead, Ito Smith, Darrell Henderson, Malcolm Brown, Tevin Coleman

Wide Receivers

PLAYER TEAM VOTES ECR ADP
Jamison Crowder NYJ 6 WR56 WR60
Anthony Miller CHI 6 WR44 WR55
Marquez Valdes-Scantling GB 6 WR46 WR44
Michael Gallup DAL 6 WR51 WR52
Tyrell Williams OAK 4 WR54 WR53
David Moore SEA 3 WR71 WR98
John Brown BUF 3 WR53 WR59
Geronimo Allison GB 3 WR43 WR43
Curtis Samuel CAR 2 WR36 WR40
Deebo Samuel SF 2 WR64 WR64
DeSean Jackson PHI 2 WR47 WR45
Keke Coutee HOU 2 WR45 WR49
Donte Moncrief PIT 2 WR49 WR51
James Washington PIT 2 WR55 WR48
Emmanuel Sanders DEN 2 WR48 WR42

Wide receivers who received one vote were: D.K. Metcalf, Devin Funchess, Jakobi Meyers, A.J. Brown, Parris Campbell, Preston Williams, Mecole Hardman, Albert Wilson, John Ross, Trey Quinn, Robby Anderson, Golden Tate

Quarterback

PLAYER TEAM VOTES ECR ADP
Jimmy Garoppolo SF 16 QB22 QB21
Sam Darnold NYJ 13 QB23 QB22
Derek Carr OAK 8 QB25 QB24
Matthew Stafford DET 6 QB24 QB25
Tom Brady NE 4 QB21 QB14
Nick Foles JAC 3 QB27 QB26
Ryan Fitzpatrick MIA 3 QB32 QB35
Josh Allen BUF 2 QB20 QB23
Lamar Jackson BAL 2 QB14 QB16

Quarterbacks who received one vote were: Andy Dalton, Joe Flacco, Dwayne Haskins, Mason Rudolph, Marcus Mariota, Mitch Trubisky

Tight Ends

PLAYER TEAM VOTES ECR ADP
Jordan Reed WAS 14 TE14 TE13
Mark Andrews BAL 8 TE15 TE17
Darren Waller OAK 6 TE32 TE26
Tyler Eifert CIN 4 TE25 TE25
Chris Herndon IV NYJ 3 TE21 TE21
Kyle Rudolph MIN 3 TE18 TE16
T.J. Hockenson DET 3 TE20 TE18
Jack Doyle IND 3 TE19 TE22
Dallas Goedert PHI 3 TE23 TE23
Jimmy Graham GB 3 TE16 TE19
Geoff Swaim JAC 2 TE43 TE37
Greg Olsen CAR 2 TE17 TE15
Gerald Everett LAR 2 TE26 TE33

Tight ends who received one vote were: Josh Oliver, Jason Witten, Foster Moreau, Mike Gesicki, Noah Fant, Jordan Thomas, Trey Burton

Q. Who is the player you expect to be this year’s biggest fantasy sleeper and why?

Running Back

Miles Sanders (PHI) 
“As of this writing, nine different running backs are ranked between David Montgomery and Sanders. That, to me, is a little nuts. No disrespect intended to Montgomery, but Sanders is an equally talented player tied to an offense that should rank among the NFL’s best. Yes, the Eagles have a zillion running backs on the roster, but Sanders seems to have separated himself in camp. Expect him to emerge as the unrivaled head of the committee in Philly, finishing with 1,200-plus scrimmage yards if healthy.”
– Andy Behrens (Yahoo! Sports)

“I’m playing by the rules here since Miles Sanders is somehow outside of the top-30 running backs in ADP, but he’s far from a sleeper. He’s the most talented, well-rounded back on what could be one of the league’s best teams. Sanders will struggle to carve out a touch or snap share north of 50% in September, but look for him to emerge down the stretch as a true three-down talent.”
– Ryan Noonan (The Quant Edge)

“The Eagles’ backfield seems a little too crowded with Jordan Howard, Corey Clement, Darren Sproles, and Wendell Smallwood. But Miles Sanders has enough talent to be a three-down back in one of the best offenses in the NFL. Many are afraid of this ending up as a committee because Doug Pederson has never used a workhorse, but that may be because he has never had a runner with Sanders’ talent. He has a ton of upside this year.”
– Mauricio Gutierrez (Estadio Fantasy)

Latavius Murray (NO)
“Murray has legit RB2 upside in his current role in New Orleans (the Mark Ingram role) and has top-10 upside if something were to happen to Alvin Kamara. Minnesota’s offense was mediocre at-best last year, coming out at 18th, 20th, and 27th in points, yards, and rush attempts, respectively. New Orleans finished third, eighth, and fifth in those categories. That should give Murray plenty of room to improve on his RB35 finish last season, as he fills a role that gave Ingram an RB29 finish in only 12 games.”
– Nick Humphreys (Fantasy Victors)

Latavius Murray is assuming the Mark Ingram role with the Saints. Since 2014, Ingram has finished as the RB14, RB12, RB8, RB6, and RB32 (12 games). Murray screams value with his ADP, residing at RB37. To boot, Murray has the fourth-most rushing touchdowns (26) over the last three seasons. He’s getting attention in fantasy drafts, but not enough.”
– Zach Greubel (Gridiron Experts)

“If it wasn’t clear enough already, the 65/35 split between Alvin Kamara and Latavius Murray in the first preseason game shows that Murray was brought in to take on the full Mark Ingram role. This alone should give him low-end RB2/flex value on a weekly basis, which means he is already worth his ADP at RB37. If Kamara were to ever miss time, Murray would be a low-end RB1. That’s almost “league-winning” upside for free and he makes for one of the best low-risk/high-reward picks of the middle rounds.”
– Sean Koerner (The Action Network)

Duke Johnson (HOU)
“I know I’m going to hear “Johnson can’t be considered a sleeper anymore,” since his trade to the Texans on August 8, but he’s still going at 153 overall (13th round in 12-team leagues) as the RB47. Even if we give him an understandable ADP in the ninth round, he’s still going to outperform his RB39 projection. Using only the “experts” that have updated their rankings since August 9, he is still being ranked as the RB44. In 2017, he finished as the RB15 in half-PPR scoring, having 82 carries for 348 rushing yards (4.2 YPC) and four rushing touchdowns along with 74 receptions on 93 targets for 693 receiving yards and three more receiving touchdowns.

Alfred Blue is leaving behind 150 carries for 499 yards (3.3 YPC) and, despite being an inept pass catcher, still had 27 targets. Johnson has more talent, better athletic skills, and better per-touch efficiency that Blue and Lamar Miller combined. Although Houston has had the fewest targets to their running backs over the past two seasons, Johnson is in line for over 200 touches in a prolific offense where he can also work out of the slot when Keke Coutee is on the shelf.”
– Kevin Wheeler (DraftWize)

Duke Johnson’s ADP is likely on the rise following the trade to the Texans, and with good reason. Johnson is an elite pass-catching back, and while Bill O’Brien’s offense has typically failed to yield high-volume targets to the running back position, they simply have not had a player of his skill set. Johnson could easily put together a James White-type season during his first year with the Texans and makes for a fantastic investment in any type of PPR format.”
– Wayne Bretsky (BretskyBall)

Darwin Thompson (KC)
Damien Williams had been a highly inefficient runner across 133 career attempts prior to 2018. 50 productive carries in a year with the league’s best offense don’t convince me he can be a lead back for a full season. Thompson meanwhile was exceptional as a runner and receiver at Utah State and has a thin depth chart in front of him.”
– Scott Spratt (Scott Spratt)

“At this time a year ago, Damien Williams wasn’t even close to the fantasy radar. He had a dominant end to 2018 and is now a second-round pick in fantasy drafts. Darwin Thompson is ahead of where Williams was last summer. The Chiefs spent a sixth-round pick to acquire him after he led all draft-eligible running backs in Pro Football Focus’ Elusive Rating last year. And if Thompson continues to play like he did in the preseason opener, I expect him to carve out a real role in Kansas City’s explosive offense.”
– Jared Smola (Draft Sharks)

Devin Singletary (BUF)
“Singletary looked great in his preseason debut, which wasn’t a surprise because he should have been chosen in the second round of the 2019 NFL Draft. Singletary is in a good situation; LeSean McCoy could be traded or benched if he plays like he did last year, while Frank Gore can’t handle a full workload. Singletary could be the starter by midseason and he’ll have success behind Buffalo’s improved offensive line.”
– Walter Cherepinsky (WalterFootball)

“I thought Devin Singletary would end up getting the lead role in Buffalo before his preseason debut. In a small sample size, the rookie out of FAU showed that he is not someone that gets brought down by one defender. Once the crowded backfield thins in Buffalo, Singletary will edge his way up towards RB2 status and be one of the best values on draft day.”
– Michael Tomlin (Fantasy Six Pack)

Wide Reciever

Jamison Crowder (NYJ)
“While there are legitimate concerns about the amount of volume to expect from the Jets’ passing game, there are several things that point to Crowder as being an undervalued receiver in PPR leagues. Adam Gase’s offense has traditionally featured the slot receiver, where Crowder has historically lined up (including 73% of his routes in 2018). Sam Darnold, who flashed in the final weeks of 2018, has shown good rapport with the newly-signed Crowder both during training camp and preseason action. I expect Crowder to lead the Jets in targets and offer a high weekly PPR floor.”
– Matthew Hill (DataForce Fantasy Football)

Jamison Crowder may not stay a sleeper for long amid ample preseason buzz. Glowing reports of his early chemistry with Sam Darnold make the former Washington wideout a strong candidate to lead the Jets in receptions from the slot. Jarvis Landry recorded 206 receptions in that role for Adam Gase’s Dolphins in 2016 and 2017, and Quincy Enunwa flourished with Darnold in the slot early last season.”
– Andrew Gould (FantasyPros)

Anthony Miller (CHI)
“Miller had an inconsistent rookie season, but finished the year with 33 receptions for 423 yards and seven touchdowns. The Bears did not have a 1,000-yard receiver last year or a receiver that had more than 100 targets on the season. They are looking for someone to become the featured receiver in this offense and Miller has the most upside of any player on their roster. He has a current ECR of WR44, which is barely higher than his 55th fantasy ranking among wide receivers last year. I think Miller has a chance to be the leading receiver for the Chicago Bears and he is a great fantasy sleeper for 2019.”
– Derek Lofland (FantasyPros)

“One player that I want nothing to do with this year is Allen Robinson, and a lot of that is because I’m expecting a breakout campaign from Anthony Miller. He was banged up for most of 2018, but still managed seven touchdowns and, despite not having any games with more than five receptions, he had a catch of at least 18 yards in seven of the 12 games where he recorded a reception. I wouldn’t be the slightest bit surprised if Miller ended the season as the leading receiver on the Bears, and he’s going around pick 100.”
– Donald Gibson (FantasyPros)

Michael Gallup (DAL)
“Gallup had decent production as a rookie (33/507/2), but he’s been a training camp standout and should have more opportunity in year two. Do you know what other third-round draft picks had similar numbers in their rookie campaigns? Chris Godwin and Kenny Golladay. Gallup has that same breakout potential in his sophomore season. Don’t wait for the year three breakout. The time is now!”
– Bart Wheeler (Hail to Fantasy Football)

Quarterback

Jimmy Garoppolo (SF)
“It’s hard not to love Garoppolo as a post-hype sleeper this season. George Kittle was a breakout star at tight end. His receivers are growing and the two rookies are getting camp hype as contributors. A year ago, Garoppolo was being drafted as a top-10 QB based on five starts. Meanwhile, the Beathard/Mullens combo passed for 3,867 yards (top-15 in yards) and 26 scores last year. Whether Garoppolo has lost a step or is rusty coming back from his ACL injury, surely he can improve upon those numbers.”
– Jon Collins (Fantasy Sports LR)

“Are we sure Jimmy Garoppolo isn’t a top quarterback in the league? His yards per attempt in 2017 after being traded would have been tops in the NFL had he qualified, and the only thing his line was missing was touchdowns, which is not surprising considering the collection of pass catchers on that squad pre-George Kittle breakout. He had two quality games after a dud in Minnesota to open the season, then missed the rest of the year. If he says healthy, he’ll have Kittle, Dante Pettis, Deebo Samuel, and 2017’s top target, Marquise Goodwin, plus a stable of good pass-catching running backs, and he likely has the talent to take full advantage.”
– R.J. White (CBS Sports)

Derek Carr (OAK)
“Carr has been good enough to support two great fantasy wide receiver options when he’s had the weapons in the past. Unfortunately, Carr had minimal receiver talent in 2018. With Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree in 2015 & 2016, Derek Carr was the QB14 and QB11 in those seasons, respectively. He’s now got an impressive pair in 2019 with Antonio Brown and Tyrell Williams. He is currently being drafted as the QB25, so he is a FREE QB with potential top-12 upside in 2019.”
– Nate Hamilton (Fantrax)

Tight End

Jordan Reed (WAS)
“It is simple. “When” Reed is healthy, he’s a TE1, but that is the problem. Reed hasn’t been healthy as of late. He has missed 17 games over the past three seasons. For that reason, most fantasy football players have written him off to the land of misfit toys. Currently, Reed is going 138th overall, which is pretty much considered a free space in bingo. But at a TE2 price, he has so much upside and potential as a TE1, especially with no real receiving threat in Washington!”
– Justin Pickle (The Hateful 8)

“It almost seems like cheating to go with Jordan Reed, because I expect him to move up from his current ECR of TE14 into the top 12 in short order. Sure, he’ll always be an injury risk, but by all accounts, he’s as healthy now as he’s been in years — and he looks as dangerous as ever. In that regard, Reed sticks out like a sore thumb (not to jinx him or anything) amid Washington’s bedraggled receiving corps and he should easily be the team’s most consistent target in the passing game. I’ll take that and roll the dice on health any time over the uninspiring low-end TE1 likes of Austin Hooper and Delanie Walker.”
– Des Bieler (The Washington Post)

Jordan Reed is primed to be a post-post-post-hype sleeper this year. He’s actually healthy in training camp, unlike the past three seasons. His target share was still solid for the position. His actual skills haven’t diminished, but fantasy players have, fairly, decided to stop going in on Reed. On top of all of this remains the fact that there is no dominant wide receiver in Washington. The team needs Reed if they are going to have the success they are striving for.”
– Mike Wright (The Fantasy Footballers)

Mark Andrews (BAL)
“At this point, Andrews is the No. 1 target in the Baltimore passing game and the TE8 in my rankings. He averaged 16.2 yards/reception as a rookie, has a strong rapport with Lamar Jackson, and has been the team’s “most dangerous and productive offensive player” at training camp. I’ve projected him for 50 catches, 775 yards, and five touchdowns…and he could easily top all those numbers in an offense otherwise devoid of receiving weapons.”
– Matt Okada (Redshirts Fantasy Football)

“The buzz out of camp is spiking Mark Andrews‘ ADP, but he’s still low enough (TE17) that there is significant profit. Tight end is known as the toughest position for a rookie and Andrews performed extremely well in the passing game on a per snap basis. I think he has top-five tight end upside if he can block well enough to steal more playing time from Nick Boyle, as Andrews appears locked in as Lamar Jackson’s favorite target.”
– Rudy Gamble (Razzball)

Darren Waller (OAK)
“At 6’6” and 266 pounds with 4.5 40-yard dash speed, Waller is a potential defensive matchup problem, especially in the red zone. With tight end Jared Cook now toiling for the Saints, the 101 targets that quarterback Derek Carr sent Cook’s way will have to go somewhere, and Waller could end up getting the lion’s share. Granted, Waller is far from a lock. After all, he’s been around since 2015 and has just 16 receptions on his resume. Plus, he’s battled substance abuse problems. However, if he can flash the kind of production he put up in a couple of late-season plays last year, there is a ton of potential for fantasy profit from a player you can probably grab just before your DST and kicker.”
– Tim McCullough (Baseball Prospectus)

Darren Waller is still essentially free in most drafts right now despite some burgeoning support from the fantasy analyst community at large. He has an opportunity to directly slide into the role that Jared Cook rode to a top-five finish in 2018, and he’s got the size and skill to chase those numbers. The 2015 sixth-round draft pick towers at 6’6″ and runs a 4.46 40-yard dash, which is freakish for someone of his size. With Antonio Brown’s outlook a sizable question mark and no other legitimate tight end to challenge him, Waller could quickly evolve into one of Derek Carr’s favorite targets. The Raider is an absolute steal as the TE26 by ADP.”
– Bill Dubiel (RotoBaller)


 

Thank you to all the experts for naming their consensus sleepers. You can view each expert’s picks above and be sure to give them a follow on Twitter for more great advice. Also, please check out our latest podcast episode below.


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