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Dissecting NFL’s Next Gen Stats (2019 Fantasy Football)

Dissecting NFL’s Next Gen Stats (2019 Fantasy Football)

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Does it often feel like we go on a carousel during the fantasy football season? We look for the most interesting stats to back up our takes, we search the game logs to find the imperfections, study the history of coordinators and coaches, then we mix everything together to create projections. From that, we look at ADP to find the best values, which players can be considered sleepers, etc.

That’s all great, but why don’t we utilize every bit of technology we have? We know there are advancements in technology every year, but does any of it apply to fantasy football? Well, yeah.

While some have caught on by now, there’s not enough people who know about NFL’s NextGenStats. They place chips in every player’s shoulder pads, tracking their movements, highlighting their speeds, how close players were in proximity when targeted, and more. For instance, did you know that Matt Breida was the fastest player in the NFL last year? He was clocked at 22.09 miles per hour. In 2017, it was Leonard Fournette atop the charts at 21.76 miles per hour. So, when someone says nobody can catch Tyreek Hill, it appears that both Breida, Fournette, Dalvin Cook, and Devin McCourty can, at least at the top-end.

While those speeds won’t do anything for fantasy purposes, I’ve gone through their data to find things that just might help us gain that little edge on our competition in fantasy football. At the very least, they could help sway you if you’re having a tough time deciding between two players. Remember that understanding the game in general will always make you a better fantasy player. After reading about my most important takeaways, you can find the full list of NextGenStats right here.

Quarterbacks

Time to Throw

It should come as no surprise seeing Josh Allen atop the time to throw list, as he’s a mobile quarterback who buys time with his legs, but taking an average of 3.22 seconds to throw the ball is a very long time. By comparison, Ben Roethlisberger averaged 2.55 seconds to throw the ball, the lowest in the league. A non-mobile quarterback who’s been near the top of the list each of the last two years is Jared Goff, as he’s averaged 2.94 seconds and 2.93 seconds over the last two years, both top-five marks. The losses of Rodger Saffold and John Sullivan on the offensive line may not give him that luxury in 2019. Derek Carr has averaged just 2.49 seconds and 2.55 seconds over the last two years, and they lost multiple starters on their offensive line this offseason. While many seem to like Tyrell Williams, it may be the same issue that kept Martavis Bryant from producing last year.

Average Completed Air Yards/Average Intended Yards Difference

This stat should show how aggressive a quarterback is in his attempts, and those who are willing to take shots down the field much more, and not rely on so much dink-and-dunk, allowing their receivers to create after the catch. It should come as no surprise to see Josh Allen at the top of intended air yards, considering how long it took him to throw the ball. The issue is that his average of just 6.5 air yards per completion is extremely bad, highlighting that he should probably tone down the deep ball to complete more passes. His -4.6-yard difference between the two was the largest in the NFL by a full yard-and-a-half. Those closest to him? Jeff Driskel, Ryan Tannehill, and Brock Osweiler. On the flipside, Drew Brees is the king of consistency, averaging 5.9 yards per completion with an average of 7.1 intended air yards. He can probably take more chances and it’s also the reason he set the record for completion percentage. He’ll get his receivers and running backs the ball to let them to do work after the catch.

Aggressiveness

This stat shows just how willing a quarterback is to make throws into tight coverage, as it’s defined by a defender within one yard when the ball gets to the pass-catcher, either complete or incomplete. If you’ve got a wide receiver who might struggle to gain separation, but is great in jump-ball situations, this is where you’d like to see a high percentage of throws. The full-time quarterbacks who took the least risk last year included Patrick Mahomes, Marcus Mariota, Kirk Cousins, and Jared Goff. It’s a good thing we know Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins, Stefon Diggs, Adam Thielen, Brandin Cooks, and Robert Woods gain separation, right? Some may question if Mariota has that separator, and the answer would be “yes.” Corey Davis averaged 3.1 yards of separation at target, tied with Hill. If a receiver struggles to gain separation, you don’t want him tied to quarterbacks in this territory. Another quarterback that’s noteworthy in the anti-aggressive territory is Tom Brady, who threw into tight coverage just 13.9 percent of the time. That’s notable considering N’Keal Harry is not a natural separator and wins at the point of catch. Meanwhile, Julian Edelman averaged 3.3 yards of separation. On the flipside, Josh Rosen, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Jameis Winston were the quarterbacks willing to throw the ball up to their wide receivers and let them win tight battles (all of them threw into tight coverage at least 20 percent of the time). This is obviously good news for DeVante Parker (2.5 yards of separation), Kenny Stills (2.4 yards), and Mike Evans (2.1 yards), who weren’t elite separators.

Running Backs

Efficiency

This is a very interesting stat and one that cannot be found elsewhere, as it’s very specific. It measures the distance a running back travels per yard gained on rushing plays. Running sideways gets you no yards gained, so the higher the number, the more east/west the running back is. The lower the number, the more they are straight to the point, north/south. The most efficient running back in this category last year was Gus Edwards, who averaged just 2.78 yards run per yard gained, while no other running back was under 3.13 yards. Do you see why John Harbaugh liked him in that role? He got exactly what was blocked. Others who were extremely efficient in 2018 included: Phillip Lindsay, Kerryon Johnson, Christian McCaffrey, Aaron Jones, and Nick Chubb. Those who were likely more east/west than they should’ve been include Elijah McGuire, who ran 5.2 yards for every yard gained. Yikes. LeGarrette Blount and LeSean McCoy were also at the bottom, but one highly regarded name who’s been on this list each of the last two years is Tarik Cohen. After averaging a massive 5.30 yards per yard gained in 2017, he averaged 4.96 yards. If he continues to get a bit more north/south, it may continue to benefit his overall performance.

8-Plus Defenders in the Box

This is the stat that I was looking forward to when NextGenStats became available, as it tells you a story about just how uphill of a battle that a running back was facing. While packages vary and the offense could very well add eight blockers up front, this gives us a solid average of what a running back sees on a weekly basis. If you’re new to this terminology, when a defense has eight or more in the box, it’s more than the traditional seven players that occupy the area, meaning they’re focused more on stopping the run, making it harder on the running back. Would it surprise you to know that LeGarrette Blount, Royce Freeman, and Leonard Fournette saw a stacked box more than 35 percent of the time, while guys like Tarik Cohen and Todd Gurley saw them on less than 10 percent of their carries? This has a lot to do with the offensive scheme, as Sean McVay has figured out a way to protect his running back from facing eight-plus defenders. How much does coaching change matter? Derrick Henry went from seeing eight-plus defenders over 50 percent of the time in 2016 and 2017 but was down to a much more manageable 32.1 percent under Matt LaFleur last year.

The players who benefited from play-calling in 2018 included Gurley, Cohen, Kenyan Drake, Rashad Penny, Mike Davis, James White, and Nyheim Hines, who all saw eight-man fronts less than 12 percent of the time. Knowing that Fournette, Freeman, and Blount saw stacked boxes more than 35 percent of the time, it’s no wonder they struggled to produce a solid yards per carry. Blount is out of the league, Freeman has a new, first-time offensive coordinator, while Fournette gets John DeFilippo, who should do a much better job disguising things in Jacksonville. While he wasn’t in Minnesota all of last year (fired after Week 14), Dalvin Cook saw eight-plus defenders just 18.1 percent of the time last year. Through Fournette’s two years in the league, he’s seen a stacked box on 177-of-400 carries, or 44.3 percent of the time. Can the coordinator change help him bounce back?

Time Behind the Line of Scrimmage

You may think that this one aligns with the efficiency numbers from above, but that’s not necessarily true, because a player could place his hand on an offensive lineman’s back, waiting for a hole to open up rather than running east to west. Granted, there will be some parallels between the two, but there are also some standouts that are displaying great patience. For instance, Le’Veon Bell averaged 3.11 seconds behind the line of scrimmage in 2017 (ranked 5th longest), but his efficiency numbers weren’t near the bottom. He’s the definition of a patient running back. There were two running backs who spent a lot of time behind the line of scrimmage but wound up with solid efficiency in 2018. Rashaad Penny averaged 3.01 seconds behind the line of scrimmage (second-most), but traveled just 3.87 yards per yard gained. Even better than that was Nick Chubb, who also spent an average of 3.01 seconds behind the line of scrimmage, but traveled just 3.48 yards per yard gained. In each of the last two years, Tarik Cohen was the worst in this category, spending an average of 3.35 seconds behind the line of scrimmage and traveling east/west too often. Unless he changes his running style, he’s not someone the Bears should trust with more carries (likely why the Bears added both Mike Davis and David Montgomery).

Wide Receivers

Cushion

It’s always interesting to see how opponents treat wide receivers when it comes to press coverage at the line of scrimmage, as some receivers have difficulty breaking that initial contact, disrupting the timing of their route. The larger the cushion, the more likely they’re concerned about the receivers speed, while the smaller cushion is typically for a possession-style receiver. Knowing that, it should come as no surprise to see DeSean Jackson, Taylor Gabriel, and Curtis Samuel near the top of this list, as each of them had an average of at least 6.7 yards of cushion. For the second-straight year, though, we see Cooper Kupp on this list, someone who’s not a burner. After averaging 7.4 yards of cushion in 2017, he averaged 6.7 yards of cushion in 2018. Everything keeps coming back to the way Sean McVay runs his offense. It’s magic, really. Playing in the slot doesn’t allow for as much press coverage, so it does make some sense. Seeing that big of a cushion, you likely understand why Kupp’s 8.6 average air yards per target ranked towards the bottom of the league (79th among 97 qualifying receivers). On the flipside, Marvin Jones, A.J. Green, Michael Thomas, Davante Adams, DeAndre Hopkins, and Kenny Golladay all saw less than five yards of cushion off the line of scrimmage. This is why despite not being speed demons, they continually do well on deep balls, as cornerbacks are forced to stay stride-for-stride instead of having that head start cushion.

Yards of Separation at Target

Who are the kings of separation? While this does require their quarterback to target them – which leaves some room for error – it should highlight who sheds their defenders better than most, though it benefits slot receivers who could potentially see a linebacker or safety in coverage. But when you match a quarterback who hates to throw into tight coverage with a shifty slot receiver, you wind up with someone who sees a lot of targets. So, seeing guys like Chester Rogers, Adam Humphries, Ryan Switzer, and Dede Westbrook near the top of the list shouldn’t surprise you. Some names who should? Sammy Watkins averaged 3.5 yards of separation at target, which ranked as the fourth-best mark in the league. Dante Pettis averaged 3.4 yards of separation, and it’s also the reason he should be the top receiver in San Francisco. Some other non-slot receivers who were high on the list included Will Fuller, Calvin Ridley, Corey Davis, Davante Adams, and Odell Beckham Jr. Who struggled to gain separation? Kelvin Benjamin averaged a laughably bad 1.7 yards of separation, which was dead-last. Allen Robinson, David Moore, A.J. Green, Mike Evans, Mike Williams, and Josh Gordon all averaged 2.0-2.1 yards of separation. Walking through them individually: Mitch Trubisky throws into tight coverage 17.7 percent of the time, the eight-highest mark in the league. Russell Wilson is a bit more risk-adverse at just 14.3 percent of the time. Andy Dalton is right at 17.0 percent, Jameis Winston is at 20.4 percent (fourth-highest mark), Philip Rivers is at 15.7 percent, and Tom Brady is at just 13.9 percent.

Targeted Air Yards Percentage

This stat shows the overall potential that a receiver had in their offense, as air yards indicate opportunity, which often equals fantasy points. It should come as no surprise that the elite rise to the top here, as Julio Jones totaled 45.6 percent of the Falcons air yards and DeAndre Hopkins totaled 44.0 percent of the Texans air yards. The crazy part is that no other wide receiver totaled more than 38.2 percent of their team’s total. Some players who had an unusually high share but aren’t being drafted like it include Kenny Golladay (37.4 percent), Corey Davis (35.8 percent), John Brown (33.8 percent), and Robby Anderson (33.6 percent). Golladay’s can be attributed to the trade of Golden Tate and injury to Marvin Jones. Brown is now on a new team, so that number doesn’t do us very good. Anderson was at a ridiculous 38 percent in 2017 and now 33.6 percent in 2018, yet he’s produced WR3 or better numbers in just 12-of-30 games. It’s possible that he produces simply due to his targeted air yards and not necessarily crazy talent. Davis is interesting, as his 35.8 percent is top-tier, though he was maddingly inconsistent in 2018. Was it due to Marcus Mariota‘s nerve issues? Getting him outside the top-30 wide receivers is worth the risk to find out.

Tight Ends

Separation

This stat is one that is likely reverse of what you’d think, so let me explain. When you look at any list and how it should be interpreted, the best players are usually at one end, while the worst players are at the other. There are always a few exceptions to every rule, but it this one seems somewhat predictive. O.J. Howard, Rob Gronkowski, and Travis Kelce are near the bottom of the list (all less than 3.0 yards of separation), while Gerald Everett, Nick Vannett, Kyle Rudolph, and Trey Burton are near the top. Which group would you rather be associated with? There are many factors that go into tight ends, but offenses will target the most talented ones, even if they’re not gaining tons of separation. They’ll also generate a lot more attention. The one name that did stand out among those who gained a ton of separation was Evan Engram, who averaged a ridiculously high 4.4 yards of separation. There’s been no other tight end over 3.9 yards in each of the last two years.

Targeted Air Yards Percentage

This is one that I expected to be very predictive, as the tight ends who are regularly targeted almost always finish inside the top-12 in fantasy football. As expected, Zach Ertz, George Kittle, and Travis Kelce were the top three, all totaling over 25.1 percent of their team’s air yards. There were just two other tight ends who totaled more than 20 percent. Jared Cook and Eric Ebron, who were both at 22 percent. While we rag on Ebron about touchdown regression, those air yards put him near elite territory. There were two tight ends who saw less than 10 percent of their team’s air yards and finished top-12 last year: O.J. Howard and Vance McDonald. Both have a legitimate shot at breaking out if their air yards increase.


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Mike Tagliere is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeTagliereNFL.

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