This week marks the end of the 2018-19 PGA season with the TOUR Championship and FanDuel has some interesting prices. Justin Thomas is a whopping $14,200, which is nearly $2,000 more than the next highest-priced player (Patrick Cantlay). There are some names (Tommy Fleetwood, Rickie Fowler, Paul Casey, and Bryson DeChambeau to name a few) that we are not used to seeing in the $7-$8k range, which will make for some interesting lineups. FanDuel provides you with $60,000 to select six golfers for an average roster spot of $10,000. If you want to play with fire and fade JT on FanDuel this week, you can fit in a number of the high-priced players and still feel good about your roster because of the loose pricing structure this week.
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TOURNAMENT INFORMATION
The top-30 golfers in the FedEx Cup standings will tee it up this week at East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta for the TOUR Championship. East Lake is a par 70 measuring 7,385 yards. The Bermuda greens are an average size for the PGA Tour, but the fairways are fairly tight, tree-lined, and have some penal rough.
This is a no-cut event that will also have the golfers starting with various stroke advantages based on their standings (e.g. Justin Thomas starts at 10-under par, Patrick Cantlay starts at 8-under par, and Brooks Koepka starts at 7-under par). This is a new wrinkle this season so be sure to take a peek at the leader board to see what score each golfer starts with. The winner of the TOUR Championship will take home a cool $15 million for winning the FedEx Cup.
The previous six winners have averaged 11-under with Henrik Stenson’s 13-under in 2013 being the best score. Tiger Woods shot 11-under last year while Xander Schauffele and Rory McIlroy both shot 12-under in 2017 and 2016, respectively. Jordan Spieth had the worst score at 9-under par in 2015, while Billy Horschel shot 11-under par in 2014 when he was also crowned the FedEx Cup Champion.
The top-five golfers in total strokes gained in the last three years at East Lake (in order) are Xander Schauffele, Justin Thomas, Paul Casey, Justin Rose, and Kevin Kisner.
In the last three years at East Lake, only Hideki Matsuyama and Paul Casey have finished in the top five twice. When looking at who has finished in the top 10, that list is larger. Justin Thomas is the only golfer to do this each of the past three years. Paul Casey, Dustin Johnson, Hideki Matsuyama, Rory McIlroy, Justin Rose, and Xander Schauffele have all finished in the top 10 twice.
In the last three years, there are 11 golfers that have shot in the 60’s at least five times: Dustin Johnson (9), Justin Thomas (9), Paul Casey (8), Xander Schauffele (7), Rory McIlroy (6), Gary Woodland (6), Justin Rose (6), Matt Kuchar (6), Hideki Matsuyama (6), Brooks Koepka (6), and Webb Simpson (5). Paul Casey and Rickie Fowler are the only players to shoot 65-or-better on two separate occasions. Casey did it in 2016 & 2017, while Fowler did it twice last year.
Justin Rose has the most top-10 finishes in the last 10 playoff events (2017-2019) with eight. Jon Rahm, Justin Thomas, and Tony Finau each have six.
This is a unique situation this week for DFS (and the PGA). There are only educated guesses on the best strategy because we’ve never seen golfers get a head start before. There are no “bad” golfers this week as this is TOUR Championship. Play the players you feel best about. Also, I would caution you to manage your bankroll (and emotions) this week. In no-cut events with only 30 golfers, there can be a lot of ups and downs during these four days. Good luck and remember to have fun!
FAVORITE HIGH-PRICED PLAY
Jon Rahm ($10,700)
Justin Thomas is the obvious favorite since he is number one in the FedEx Cup standings and has great course history here, but his price is a bit too extravagant. There are a number of other players with win equity and top-five potential that we can get for a fraction of the cost of JT this week (e.g. Cantlay, McIlroy, Xander, Hideki). But Rahm is my favorite play once again (with Rory a close second). Rahm should continue to put up bunches of fantasy points and will have a chance to catch JT on the leader board. His course history isn’t bad, either, with a T11 last year and a T7 in 2017. In his last seven events, his worst finish is T11 as he has racked up five top-five finishes.
FAVORITE MID-TIER PLAYS
Adam Scott ($9,300)
He was T9 last week at the BMW and T5 at the Northern Trust the week before. Only Scott, Jon Rahm, and Brandt Snedeker have back-to-back top-10 finishes so far in the FedEx Cup playoffs. He has only played at East Lake twice in the past five years but finished T8 in 2016 and T9 in 2014.
Justin Rose ($9,000)
Yep, the defending FedEx Cup Champion is priced toward the bottom. This is no doubt because of his starting position. He didn’t play well at the BMW last week but was T10 the week before at the Northern Trust and it wasn’t too long ago that he was T3 at the U.S. Open. He also has amazing course history with a T4, T10, T2, and T4 in his last four starts at East Lake.
FAVORITE LOW-TIER PLAYS
Paul Casey ($8,300)
He looked a little rusty last week at the BMW after taking a week off, but he has played well at this course and has a game that can get hot, especially if he is in “chase” mode. Casey has finished T11, 5, 4, and T5 in the last four years at East Lake.
Kevin Kisner ($8,000)
Last week’s course was supposed to be too long for Kisner, but he still managed a top-10 finish. This was on the heels of a T12 finish at the Northern Trust. Two strong performances in the playoffs thus far to go with a T3 the last time he played this course back in 2017 makes him a good value play.
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Jamy Bechler is a regular contributor to FantasyPros for NBA, NFL, and PGA. You can follow him on his DFS twitter @WinningDFS101. When he is not playing DFS, Jamy is an author, host of the “Success is a Choice” podcast, and is a leadership trainer, working with businesses and teams across the country (including the NBA). Even though he offers his advice on players and contests, after additional information and consideration, he may end up using different players and strategies than what he recommends.
