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Fantasy Baseball: MLB Trade Deadline Analysis (2019)

Fantasy Baseball: MLB Trade Deadline Analysis (2019)

Up until Tuesday night, the 2019 trade deadline was … underwhelming. There were moves made the week before (Jake Diekman to the Athletics and Sergio Romo to the Twins) that could be impactful moves, but nothing was ground shaking.

Again, until Tuesday night.

There, we saw a three-team deal with moving pieces such as Trevor Bauer, Yasiel Puig, Franmil Reyes, and more at the same time as a benches-clearing brawl with Puig involved.

Who said baseball is boring?

As we move forward toward the rest of the fantasy season, let’s take a look at the fantasy impacts from each of the moves made from July 29-31.

*not all trade have been officially announced as of 5 p.m. by their respective MLB clubs.

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Cleveland Indians trade Trevor Bauer to the Cincinnati Reds for Yasiel Puig and Scott Moss

San Diego Padres trade Franmil Reyes, Logan Allen, and Victor Nova to the Cleveland Indians

Cincinnati Reds trade Taylor Trammell to the San Diego Padres

The aforementioned three-team deal had one consensus: the Indians made out big time from a real-life standpoint.

But we are here to talk about fantasy.

The big winner here is Reyes and Manuel Margot of the Padres. The Padres entered the season having too many outfielders, and that reared its head throughout the season, as Reyes, Margot, Wil Myers, and Hunter Renfroe all struggled to find regular playing time. Shipping Reyes to the Indians opens regular playing time up for the three Padres, and it gives Reyes a chance to not only play every day, but also be used as a designated hitter at times since his defense is below average.

For Allen, I don’t expect a huge impact this season. But I love his dynasty outlook with how the Indians have developed their pitchers of late. He could make a few spot starts, but he’s not worth rostering in standard leagues.

Puig started slow, but he’s on a 30/20 pace. He’s going to a worse ballpark, but he’s going to get to beat up on some pretty bad rotations in the American League Central. His value basically stays the same.

As for Bauer, it’s a decrease in his fantasy value, though he’s still a top-15 pitcher for me the rest of the season.

The main concern I have here is that Bauer has been an extreme fly-ball pitcher this year. His 38.8 percent fly-ball rate is the 15th highest in the league. He’s going to a ballpark that was 10th in home runs in 2017, first in home runs in 2018, and 10th this year. It’s worth noting, though, that Progressive Field is eighth this year, but was 14th and 17th the previous two years.

The National League Central is a mixed bag as far as power goes, as both the Brewers and Cubs are in the top 10 in the league in homers, while the Cardinals and the Pirates are in the lower-third when it comes to the long ball.

Imagine telling someone that Reyes would be traded for Taylor Trammell. That’s essentially what the Padres did. I like Trammel as a future fantasy difference maker, but his stock has taken a hit over the past year. The Padres like him as a “stud,” though, so he’s still a top 30 fantasy prospect to own in dynasty leagues.

Arizona Diamondbacks trade Zack Greinke to the Houston Astros for Seth Beer, Corbin Martin, J.B. Bukauskas, and Josh Rojas

Holy cow. Sound the alarm. With a trade that came in at the last minute, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, announced that Greinke was going to the Astros. He’ll now be their third starter behind Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole.

Read that sentence again, if you will.

I can’t wait to see the magic that the Astros use with Greinke. They’ve gotten the best out of everyone who has joined their rotation from Charlie Morton to Wade Miley

It’s an obvious boost for Greinke, even if the home park is a downgrade. Plus, no more Coors Field starts to worry about. He’s a top-10 pitcher the rest of the way.

The return is great for Arizona, but there’s nothing here for 2019. Seth Beer and Josh Rojas are guys to keep an eye on for next year, though. 

Toronto Blue Jays trade Marcus Stroman to the Mets for Anthony Kay and Simeon Woods-Richardson

It’s the move that had the baseball world talking, and rival executives fuming as they realized that’s all it took to land Stroman. That, in turn, lowered the asking price for all other pitchers on the market.

For Stroman, the move is a wash. He goes from a tough division to a tough division, but he’s helped out by a change of venue as far as his home ballpark goes. While the Blue Jays aren’t a team known for their elite defense, the Mets are even worse, which worries me with Stroman, who owns the second-highest groundball rate in baseball. He’s not going to own a sub-3.00 ERA for the season, so natural regression will happen anyway.

I like Kay as a No. 3 or 4 in fantasy for the future, but there’s something to be said for a 24-year-old who hasn’t made it to the big leagues yet. 

Woods-Richardson is the real prospect get here, but at 18, he’s a wild-card.

Detroit Tigers trade Nicholas Castellanos to the Chicago Cubs for Alex Lange and Paul Richan

Castellanos was as good as gone this deadline. It’s a great landing spot for him, and you have to think he cuts into the playing time of Jason Heyward, Albert Amora, and Kyle Schwarber. What I’d love is if the Cubs experimented with him at second base, but that’s not a move you try when you’re in August. His value is boosted with his new ballpark and his supporting cast. 

He was dropped in a lot of leagues (his ownership is at 79% on Yahoo) but he should be owned in 100 percent of leagues again.

Milwaukee Brewers trade Jesus Aguilar to Tampa Bay Rays for Jacob Faria

Aguilar, as many expected, came back to earth after his late-20s 2018 breakout season. It’ll be interesting to see if the Rays can get Aguilar back to that level of performance. He’s been better of late, and the peripherals are better than the surface numbers, but as of now, he looks like a platoon option at first. This could hurt Nate Lowe‘s 2019 value.

Faria is an interesting get for the Brewers. If you remember, Faria had a great 2017 rookie season, pitching to the tune of a 3.43 ERA in 86.2 innings. Since then, though, he hasn’t been on the fantasy radar. He should stay off of your radar for 2019, but he could be an interesting rotation option in 2020 if the Brewers can get him close to his 2017 form.

Miami Marlins trade Zac Gallen to the Arizona Diamondbacks for Jazz Chisholm

The Marlins certainly have a type, don’t they? I don’t get this trade one bit for them, but they have the young arms to cover for the loss of Gallen. Gallen will slot right into the Diamondbacks rotation with the loss of Greinke. He should be owned as an SP4-5 in all leagues.

Detroit Tigers trade Shane Greene to the Atlanta Braves for Joey Wentz and Travis Demeritte

The Tigers went from asking for Carter Kieboom to getting Wentz and Demeritte. Greene should take the closer’s role in Atlanta from Luke Jackson who has seven blown saves.

Seattle Mariners trade Mike Leake to the Arizona Diamondbacks for Jose Caballero

Leake, like Gallen, should enter the Diamondbacks rotation. It’s a lateral move for him.

Cincinnati Reds trade Tanner Roark to the Oakland Athletics for Jameson Hannah

Roark has only two starts this year where he’s given up more than four runs. He’s in a much better park now, and we’ve seen the A’s getting the most out of their pitchers every single year. Last year, it was Mike Fiers and Edwin Jackson. Roark is a boring SP4 for fantasy.

Cincinnati Reds trade Scooter Gennett to the San Francisco Giants for a PTBNL

Gennett is a strict rental for the Giants, and he’s no more than a top-20 second baseman at this point for fantasy. The real winner here, though, is Josh VanMeter, who should get regular playing time going forward to see what the Reds have in him. Don’t sleep on his power in that ballpark.

Pittsburgh Pirates trade Corey Dickerson to the Philadelphia Phillies for a PTBNL and cash considerations

When Dickerson was traded to the Pirates, he replaced Andrew McCutchen. Now that he’s going to Philadelphia, he’ll be replacing McCutchen again. He’s an option in leagues where you need a fourth or fifth outfielder.

Texas Rangers trade Chris Martin to the Atlanta Braves for Kolby Allard

There’s little fantasy relevance here. Allard is a former top prospect who has lost his luster. For Martin, there was a chance he’d close prior to the Shane Greene trade. Luke Jackson has been fine, but he’s blown seven saves this year and, like I said above, I expect Greene to take the role. It could mean a return to relevance for Jose LeClerc in Texas.

Toronto Blue Jays traded David Phelps to the Chicago Cubs for Thomas Hatch 

The big fantasy takeaway here is that the Blue Jays recalled Sean Reid-Foley, and he gave Toronto five shutout innings Tuesday night. The Blue Jays offense looks great for the future, but if they plan to contend, they need some young pitching to step up. Reid-Foley, even with his four walks in the game, is a name to monitor in deeper leagues for this year.

Pittsburgh Pirates trade Jordan Lyles to the Milwaukee Brewers for Cody Ponce

There’s zero fantasy relevance here. Lyles was great out of the bullpen for the Brewers last year down the stretch, so he could return to a swing-role even with their need for rotation help.

Toronto Blue Jays trade Eric Sogard to the Tampa Bay Rays for two PTBNL

Just what the Rays needed — another versatile player like Sogard. With so many options at middle infield, he’s not a fantasy option beyond deeper leagues — especially with uncertainty with his role on the team.

The big winner here is Bo Bichette, who the Blue Jays called up after the deal. He had his first career hit Monday night, his first multi-hit game Tuesday, and his first home run Wednesday. He’s going to be a points-league specialist for years to come and a future batting champ. Get him wherever he’s available.

Miami Marlins trade Sergio Romo, Chris Vallimont, and a PTBNL to the Minnesota Twins for Lewin Diaz

It was Taylor Rogers and not Romo who got the first save for the Twins in the first opportunity with both on the team. At the least, Romo will offer holds to those in holds leagues.

Seattle Mariners trade Hunter Strickland to the Washington Nationals for Aarron Fletcher

The Nationals made many moves to upgrade their bullpen. Strickland could help with holds.

Miami Marlins trade Trevor Richards and Nick Anderson to the Tampa Bay Rays for Jesus Sanchez and Ryne Stanek

I love this deal — unlike the Gallen one — for the Marlins. Sanchez is a must-own in dynasty leagues. For 2019 value, I really am interested in seeing how the Rays deploy Richards. I’m a known Richards fan, and he could be useful as an opener similar to Ryan Yarbrough.

Toronto Blue Jays trade Joe Biagini and Aaron Sanchez to the Houston Astros for Derek Fisher

This one is interesting. Sanchez is better suited out of the bullpen, but he could get a shot as the Astros’ fifth starter. There was no room for Fisher in the crowded Houston system, but he could get a look in Toronto as a fourth outfielder. 

New York Mets trade Jason Vargas to the Philadelphia Phillies for Austin Bossart 

At the very least, Vargas is an arm for the Phillies to eat innings or piggyback off of Jake Arrieta or Zach Eflin. There’s little interest outside of a 15-team league.

Milwaukee Brewers trade Mauricio Dubon to the San Francisco Giants for Drew Pomeranz and Ray Black

No fantasy relevance.

Seattle Mariners trade Roenis Elias to the Washington Nationals for Elvis Alvarado and Taylor Guilbeau

No fantasy relevance.

Toronto Blue Jays trade Daniel Hudson to the Washington Nationals for Kyle Johnson

No fantasy relevance

Chicago Cubs trade Martin Maldonado to the Houston Astros for Tony Kemp

No fantasy relevance. 

San Francisco Giants trade Sam Dyson to the Minnesota Twins for Prelander Berroa, Jaylin Davis, and Kai-Wei Teng

No fantasy relevance.

San Francisco Giants trade Mark Melancon to the Atlanta Braves for Tristan Beck and Daniel Winkler

No fantasy relevance

St. Louis Cardinals trade Jedd Gyorko, cash considerations, and international cap space to the Los Angeles Dodgers for Tony Cingrani and Jeffry Abreu

No fantasy relevance

Seattle Mariners trade Kristopher Negron to the Los Angeles Dodgers for Daniel Castro

No fantasy relevance even with Negron homering in his first game with the Dodgers.

Los Angeles Dodgers trade Zac Rossup to the St. Louis Cardinals for cash considerations

No fantasy relevance.

Tampa Bay Rays trade Adam Kolarek to the Los Angeles Dodgers for Niko Hulsizer

No fantasy relevance, but I like Hulsizer in deeper dynasty leagues.

Chicago White Sox trade Nate Jones, international slot compensation, and cash considerations to the Texas Rangers for Joe Jarneski and Ray Castro

No fantasy relevance.

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Michael Waterloo is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Michael, check out his archive and follow him @MichaelWaterloo.

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