Fantasy Football Debate: Can Derrius Guice Provide Value at ADP?

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Every fantasy football draft season, there are players that cause a divide between fantasy football experts and analysts. To get a sense of the most volatile players entering fantasy football drafts, you can check out our Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) and view the player’s standard deviation. The lower the standard deviation, the more agreement around a player’s ranking. But a high standard deviation means our experts have a high range of expected outcomes.

Since these are the players that tend to make or break fantasy football drafts, we’ve paired our experts and writers — one higher on a player compared to our ECR and one lower — to bring to you a fantasy football player debate.

Today, our debate will center on Washington running back Derrius Guice. Guice has an ECR of RB28 in half-PPR scoring formats. Our writer Raju Byfield (@fantasycontext) is higher on Guice, while our writer Paul Ghiglieri (@FantasyGhigs) isn’t as confident in Guice and Washington’s offense in 2019.

Let’s check out the fantasy football debate for Derrius Guice.

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Fantasy Football Debate: Derrius Guice

@FantasyContext sell me 😉

— Paul Ghiglieri (@FantasyGhigs) August 16, 2019

The 35th running back drafted based on Half-PPR ADP, Derrus Guice is a potential starter that appears to be a great value.

Coming at a deep seventh round discount due to injury concerns, he was an early fifth round pick in April and May.

Do you see him below current ADP?

— Raju Byfield (@FantasyContext) August 16, 2019

I do. The injury concerns are real. There are better values at that ADP.

— Paul Ghiglieri (@FantasyGhigs) August 16, 2019

He is already running and cutting according to reports. He has looked good, but just has not been cleared for contact. https://t.co/WlHrTrntis

What values do you like over him at his current ADP?

— Raju Byfield (@FantasyContext) August 16, 2019

Peterson ran for 1,000-yards at age 33 & signed a 2 year deal to stay in WAS. Add in Chris Thompson, Samaje Perine & rookie Bryce Love & it’s a crowded backfield; there’s no way Guice becomes a bell cow unless there are injuries. And he’s arguably the biggest injury risk there.

— Paul Ghiglieri (@FantasyGhigs) August 16, 2019

Bryce Love appears ahead of schedule which is impressive. Thompson will still see 40+ targets but is not a threat to steal many carries in run game.

AP was great last year, but a healthy Guice is their only back with an everydown skill set.

What injury risk do you mean? Hammy?

— Raju Byfield (@FantasyContext) August 16, 2019

Peterson said his goal is to run for 2,000 yards this year. It won’t happen, but does anyone really think he would have signed a 2 year deal with a team that won’t give him carries? WAS figures to run AP into the ground while Guice slowly adjusts.

— Paul Ghiglieri (@FantasyGhigs) August 16, 2019

I am certain he will see carries, but nothing approaching the 251 he saw last season. $2.5 million is great, but not enough to keep him in featured role with Guice looking healthy however.

Over/Under 181.5 carries for AP. Are you taking the over?

— Raju Byfield (@FantasyContext) August 16, 2019

The only way Guice justifies it surpasses his ADP is if he remains on the field in positive and negative game scripts. He won’t. Thompson will be there for most 3rd downs and 2 minute drills. AP will at the very least split time with Guice. Unless 2 of them get cut, can’t see it.

— Paul Ghiglieri (@FantasyGhigs) August 16, 2019

Why do you believe he wont see the field on third downs?

As per @ScottBarrettDFB‘s 96 Stats, At the combine this year, Jay Gruden told Matthew Berry, “[Guice] doesn’t have to come off the field on third down.”

1/2

— Raju Byfield (@FantasyContext) August 16, 2019

2/2

“Gruden expanded on that, saying that though LSU never really used him in the pass game, the Redskins discovered last year in practice and OTAs that’s he’s a really good pass-catcher, and they will use him in that role this season.”

He is the only three down back on roster

— Raju Byfield (@FantasyContext) August 16, 2019

They will be behind a ton. Will he be better than the other backs in pass pro? Yes, he’s a three-down back, but he’s going to split time in every down-situation with somebody.

— Paul Ghiglieri (@FantasyGhigs) August 16, 2019

He is plus plus in pass protection, its what made him a such a pro ready prospect, and a fourth round pick in fantasy drafts last season.

He is a talented back in the Ezekiel Elliott mold, 4.49 speed at 224 lbs, with a true every down skill set (pass pro included).

— Raju Byfield (@FantasyContext) August 16, 2019

Love the talent. Hate the situation. Likely best case scenario here is adequate stats with a low ceiling on a terrible offense. WAS has no incentive to risk his future by giving him big workloads in a lost season with AP still there.

— Paul Ghiglieri (@FantasyGhigs) August 16, 2019

I am actually more concerned about Bryce Love than AP.

They (AP+Guice) will both get to eat the majority of the 405 carry average. If we can agree that Guice has 200 carry upside, we need to discuss how many targets he sees, or doesn’t see.

— Raju Byfield (@FantasyContext) August 16, 2019

If Thompson wasn’t there and Guice was guaranteed the passing work I’d be more inclined to consider him at his ADP over other options.

— Paul Ghiglieri (@FantasyGhigs) August 16, 2019

Lets divy the 110 targets to the running back position they have averaged over the last two seasons.

How do you project it playing out?

— Raju Byfield (@FantasyContext) August 16, 2019

Thompson had 55 tgts in only 10 gms last year. Let’s assume he gets the same in 16 this year. AP garnered 26. Let’s safely give Guice 30-40. 180 carries and 30 tgts on a bad team. Others at ADP offer better floors or higher upside on better teams.

— Paul Ghiglieri (@FantasyGhigs) August 16, 2019

Guice had three additional surgeries during the offseason to fight an infection at the surgical site. He’s battled hamstring issues as well. Will he have the same burst and power? Too many questions for me.

— Paul Ghiglieri (@FantasyGhigs) August 16, 2019

The power we cannot tell until he takes consistent contact.

On the tweet I included in previous reply, he did cut twice, get hit and bounce right back up.

Hamstring issues are common for players returning from ACL injuries which is why his two round drop in ADP was a shock.

— Raju Byfield (@FantasyContext) August 16, 2019

I believe in his talent. Let’s look at his team context. It’s abysmal.

— Paul Ghiglieri (@FantasyGhigs) August 16, 2019

This is a team that runs 400 times plus a year despite playing from behind more than one would like. 110 targets to RBs avg over two years.

There are touches to be had.

If he suits up for a preseason game would that change your perspective on him?

Do you have other concerns?

— Raju Byfield (@FantasyContext) August 16, 2019

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