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Every fantasy football draft season, there are players that cause a divide between fantasy football experts and analysts. To get a sense of the most volatile players entering fantasy football drafts, you can check out our Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) and view the player’s standard deviation. The lower the standard deviation, the more agreement around a player’s ranking. But a high standard deviation means our experts have a high range of expected outcomes.
Since these are the players that tend to make or break fantasy football drafts, we’ve paired our experts and writers — one higher on a player compared to our ECR and one lower — to bring to you a fantasy football player debate.
Today, our debate will center on Washington running back Latavius Murray. Murray has an ECR of RB31 in half-PPR scoring formats. Our expert and writer Elisha Twerski (@elishatwerski) is higher on Murray, while our writer Raju Byfield (@fantasycontext) isn’t as confident in Murray in his new role with the Saints.
Let’s check out the fantasy football debate for Latavius Murray.
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Fantasy Football Debate: Latavius Murray
I’ll start with this. In 2017, Mark Ingram finished as the RB6. In 2018, he finished as the RB29 despite missing four games. Latavius Murray should step into a similar role and has been quite effective when he has seen regular usage. His ADP of RB36 makes no sense to me.
— Elisha Twerski (@ElishaTwerski) August 14, 2019
Before we go any further my first question to you would be is do you think Mark Ingram and Latavius Murray are comparable talents? And if so, on what basis?
— Raju Byfield (@FantasyContext) August 14, 2019
(1/2) The Saints seemed to value their talents pretty equally. Murray got more guaranteed than Ingram did with BAL. Murray is definitely the superior goalline back. He has converted 53% of his attempts inside the 5 over the last 4 season. Compared to 40% for Ingram.
— Elisha Twerski (@ElishaTwerski) August 14, 2019
Mark Ingram was waiting for Bell to sign his deal to see what his true market would be like, and the Saints offered Murray due to fear they would lose out on Ingram, only for Murray to have already signed with a competitor.
No debate on the goal line numbers.
— Raju Byfield (@FantasyContext) August 14, 2019
That’s true, but the Saints did agree to a deal with Murray a day before free agency even started. That indicates that they liked his talent and fit. I can’t imagine that they signed him so early if they didn’t think he’d fit into the Mark Ingram role.
— Elisha Twerski (@ElishaTwerski) August 14, 2019
Can he provide a similar element and even provide a potential upgrade in an area?
Yes, you pointed out his superior goal line percentage.
The question is do you think he can fill those shoes?
— Raju Byfield (@FantasyContext) August 14, 2019
It comes down to what the Saints think of him talent wise, which is hard to quantify. With two Pro Bowl talents you do your best to feed both. I do not think Murray is a comparable talent which is why I am still passing him up at his current ADP.
— Raju Byfield (@FantasyContext) August 14, 2019
I think when and how they signed Murray shows what they think of him. As do all the reports from training camp. And we’re talking about the team that has had the second most rushing attempts by non-QBs over the last two seasons. That’s a lot of available volume.
— Elisha Twerski (@ElishaTwerski) August 14, 2019
Do you think this volume remains the same from the last two seasons now that the Saints have added Jared Cook?
Ted Ginn will be back, Smith hopefully improves, Butler has impressed.
Do Washington and Ozigbo factor into your projected backfield split?
— Raju Byfield (@FantasyContext) August 14, 2019
They barely factor in at all. Ozigbo is undrafted and I’d be surprised if he’s even active most weeks. Washington managed just 27 carries despite Ingram struggling most weeks.
— Elisha Twerski (@ElishaTwerski) August 14, 2019
The remainder is what I believe a drop to their 2016 and 2017 rushing volume due to the upgraded weaponry in the passing game.
— Raju Byfield (@FantasyContext) August 14, 2019
Even if they decide to pass more with all these weapons and only run the ball 420~ times, it still leaves Murray with nearly 200 carries. In that offense, that’s extremely valuable.
— Elisha Twerski (@ElishaTwerski) August 14, 2019
That is taking in account the supposition that he hits the over on the 11.5 carries Ingram saw last season.
For reference I would take the under and this is what has caused our value disparities.
I would be thrilled if he hits 150 carries. But I just may be too high on Devine
— Raju Byfield (@FantasyContext) August 14, 2019
He’ll get those carries unless someone else steals them, which appears highly unlikely right now. It’s hard to imagine NO abandoning the system that allowed them to go 24-8 over the last 2 seasons in favor of the pass-heavy scheme that saw them go 7-9 for 3 consecutive seasons.
— Elisha Twerski (@ElishaTwerski) August 14, 2019
I totally get your perspective on this.
My concern is that Sean Payton knows full well Murray is a downgrade and that he has a better passing game than they have had since 2016.
I really like Ozigbo, but wish they would have addressed the position during the draft over Murray.
— Raju Byfield (@FantasyContext) August 14, 2019
I think it’ll be similar to 2017, where Ingram got 200+ carries and non-Thomas/Kamara players got 279 targets. Those 279 targets will be distributed between Cook, Smith, Murray, and Ginn … but the rushes will be similar or identical.
— Elisha Twerski (@ElishaTwerski) August 14, 2019
Wow.
Herein lies our value gap. I have him under 200 touches total.
I am guessing you have him well over?
How many targets do Kirkwood, Butler, Mack, Arnold, Hill, Ozigbo and Rodgers get?
— Raju Byfield (@FantasyContext) August 14, 2019
Fair enough. I respect that.
Honestly, I think if he even get 175 touches, he’ll outperform his ADP by a mile. In that offense, it won’t take much to beat out RB36.
I have him at or around 225 touches.
I don’t think those guys get anything but leftover breadcrumbs.
— Elisha Twerski (@ElishaTwerski) August 14, 2019
Loved the discourse.
And I hate to admit it, but you have made me consider Murray a potential value at his current ADP. The upside is definitely there.
Great job @ElishaTwerski!
— Raju Byfield (@FantasyContext) August 14, 2019
Appreciate it, @FantasyContext. Welcome aboard the Latavius Murray train!
You almost made me question my love for Murray, which is quite an accomplishment. pic.twitter.com/j5NP0dUjtY
— Elisha Twerski (@ElishaTwerski) August 14, 2019
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