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Every fantasy football draft season, there are players that cause a divide between fantasy football experts and analysts. To get a sense of the most volatile players entering fantasy football drafts, you can check out our Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) and view the player’s standard deviation. The lower the standard deviation, the more agreement around a player’s ranking. But a high standard deviation means our experts have a high range of expected outcomes.
Since these are the players that tend to make or break fantasy football drafts, we’ve paired our experts and writers — one higher on a player compared to our ECR and one lower — to bring to you a fantasy football player debate.
Today, our debate will center on Eagles running back Jordan Howard. Howard has an ECR of RB37 in half-PPR scoring formats. Our writer Matt Giraldi (@MGiraldi) is higher on Howard, while writer Raju Byfield (@fantasycontext) isn’t as confident in Howard entering the new season.
Let’s check out the fantasy football debate for Jordan Howard.
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Fantasy Football Debate: Jordan Howard
Right now using the .5 PPR ADP data from @Fantasypros Jordan Howard is the RB37 and is getting selected outside of the top-100.
Miles Sanders, is being selected as the RB32.
By the time September arrives that gap is gonna widen. Gimme the contract year vet
— Matthew Giraldi (@MGiraldi) August 19, 2019
With Miles Sanders starting in preseason for the Eagles, do you believe Howard gets more touches than Sanders this season?
— Raju Byfield (@FantasyContext) August 19, 2019
I think by year’s end Sanders will lead in touches, but the gap isn’t going to be as big as it seems vs. the field (Sproles, Howard & Smallwood/Clement/Scott).
Pass protection & red zone work could be the difference in early season PT. Howard gets that nod me thinks
— Matthew Giraldi (@MGiraldi) August 19, 2019
I would think he sees more work at the goal line as well
Before we get into the details, let’s start with this:
How many total team carries this season:
Wentz carry total:
Sproles target per game total:— Raju Byfield (@FantasyContext) August 19, 2019
I’d expect the Eagles to have somewhere b/w 420-450 rushing attempts and about 560-590 passing attempts.
Wentz should have b/w 30-40 carries. I’d prefer the lower spectrum for a myriad of reasons.
As for Sproles, I don’t see him being utilized regularly, but he’ll have a role
— Matthew Giraldi (@MGiraldi) August 19, 2019
In 2017 Wentz was on pace for 79 carries, working his way back from injury last season he was on a 49 carry pace.
How many carries do you envision for Corey Clement who has been mixing in with the first team as recently as today?
If you had to guess at Sproles Tgt/gm what is #?
— Raju Byfield (@FantasyContext) August 19, 2019
Clement might not make the team. We know Howard, Sproles & Sanders are in. Boston Scott has a leg up on the return duties & Smallwood led Eagles RB’s in ’18 ST snaps
Doug Pederson’s history @ cutdown date for RB’s:
4 RBs in ’18
5 RBs in ’17
4 RBs in ’16Sproles=1.5 tgts/gm
— Matthew Giraldi (@MGiraldi) August 19, 2019
Fair enough, first team work could be a smokescreen.
How many carries for whoever makes the team between Sproles/Smallwood/Clement/Adams/Scott?
Miles Sanders O/U 185.5 carries?
— Raju Byfield (@FantasyContext) August 19, 2019
I’d guess they have b/w 75-100 carries amongst the rest of the backfield provided an injury free year.
I’d take the under on Sanders with that amount of rushing attempts.
— Matthew Giraldi (@MGiraldi) August 19, 2019
Interesting.
I set it low thinking you’d take the over based on your earlier thought that Sanders would end up leading team in touches.
To recap
80-100 carries for third string and beyond
170 carries for Sanders?
You have Wentz at 40 carries, I have him at 64How many left?
— Raju Byfield (@FantasyContext) August 19, 2019
If Howard can get to the 140-160 range, I’ll take it. Only 24 RBs in 2018 had more than 160 rushing attempts and only 32 with 140+ attempts. Behind that offensive line and with that offense as a whole certainly helps with the lack of volume he’s experienced in the past in Chicago
— Matthew Giraldi (@MGiraldi) August 19, 2019
Fair enough.
What kind of yards per carry are we expecting from Howard on 155 attempts? How many TDs?
How involved in passing game do you expect him to be target wise?
— Raju Byfield (@FantasyContext) August 20, 2019
I can still see Howard getting 4.0 YPC. So say 620 rushing yards & 6 rushing TDs. 20 catches for 120 yards and 1 TD
We might be too low on Howard in the passing game. Per @PFF, Howard allowed 2 pressures on 92 pass blocking snaps in ’18. And this 👇https://t.co/Unl8T8W4jc
— Matthew Giraldi (@MGiraldi) August 20, 2019
So you project Howard to have 20 receptions and Sproles to have only 24 targets (1.5 pg)?
He was on a 64 target pace in 2017
I concur that Howard is a plus in pass pro
Yards after catch: Adams, Sproles, Clement, Smallwood all had higher last seasonhttps://t.co/5r85chorRs
— Raju Byfield (@FantasyContext) August 20, 2019
I’m hopeful that Sproles can prove me wrong as an Eagles fan. I just don’t see a 36-year old RB commanding 4 targets a game and potentially getting the RZ work he has received in the past.
Essentially, Howard and Sanders are 1A and 1B, with both of them being a top-tier handcuff
— Matthew Giraldi (@MGiraldi) August 20, 2019
Fair enough.
Based on the numbers you projected for Howard he would have been the around the RB30 last season. Essentially Crowell numbers.
With more talent in the league and healthy this season, that could amount to RB35-RB42
At his ADP there are higher upside options
— Raju Byfield (@FantasyContext) August 20, 2019
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