Fantasy Football Debate: What is Jameis Winston’s Fantasy Appeal?

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Every fantasy football draft season, there are players that cause a divide between fantasy football experts and analysts. To get a sense of the most volatile players entering fantasy football drafts, you can check out our Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) and view the player’s standard deviation. The lower the standard deviation, the more agreement around a player’s ranking. But a high standard deviation means our experts have a high range of expected outcomes.

Since these are the players that tend to make or break fantasy football drafts, we’ve paired our experts and writers — one higher on a player compared to our ECR and one lower — to bring to you a fantasy football player debate.

Today, our debate will center on Buccaneers quarterback Jameis Winston. Winston has an ECR of QB12 in half-PPR scoring formats. Our writer Davis Mattek (@davismattek) is higher on Winston, while writer Matt Giraldi (@MGiraldi) isn’t as confident in Winston entering the new season.

Let’s check out the fantasy football debate for Jameis Winston.

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Fantasy Football Debate: Jameis Winston

The reasons for being in on Jameis are clear. Bruce Arians, one of the best pass catching groups in the league and lack of any semblance of a running game with only Blaine Gabbert as a backup

— Davis Mattek (@DavisMattek) August 16, 2019

The running backs in the Tampa backfield certainly have upside in the passing game, particularly if Ronald Jones can make the jump in his second season. The question ultimately is: Will Jameis be able to capitalize on those short-to-intermediate throws?https://t.co/JDkD3kJwCE

— Matthew Giraldi (@MGiraldi) August 16, 2019

I actually love drafting Jones and Barber both in the later rounds of top-heavy FF tournaments but the median expectation would have Jameis close to the league lead in passing attempts

— Davis Mattek (@DavisMattek) August 16, 2019

I think the Bruce Arians effect is the biggest reason for the jump in ADP. Mike Evans, Chris Godwin (especially) & OJ Howard as well. The one issue I have with Arians is: Will his offense really pass *that* much? As a HC & OC, history might hint otherwise. https://t.co/cZwr48ZzJ1 pic.twitter.com/DPB5IJXXhG

— Matthew Giraldi (@MGiraldi) August 16, 2019

Think the biggest thing to take away is the highest passing numbers are from his most recent seasons and even in the lower attempt seasons, they still pushed the ball down the field. In sort of a worst case, we know the ball will be thrown deeper at a better rate

— Davis Mattek (@DavisMattek) August 16, 2019

The HR threat is one of the most appealing Jameis aspects IMO. He’s one of the better deep passers in the NFL. Does his propensity for turnovers however scare you in any capacity though?

Since being in the NFL, he has as many 300+ yard passing games as he does multi-INT games.

— Matthew Giraldi (@MGiraldi) August 16, 2019

It would definitely still scare me if Ryan Fitzpatrick was still on the team. However, most leagues do not penalize interceptions too dramatically and the odds of being benched for Blaine Gabbert have to be considered quite low

— Davis Mattek (@DavisMattek) August 16, 2019

In 2019 his direct competition might be his contract year. Bruce Arians is an old-school coach that has no long-term attachment to Winston. Perhaps more of a dynasty issue than redraft, but a repeat benching doesn’t seem far-fetched for a team still mired in a big rebuild.

— Matthew Giraldi (@MGiraldi) August 16, 2019

I think it’s pretty possible that Winston and the Bucs have a losing record, Arians doesn’t love Winston, they don’t renew him and he still throws for 4400 yards and 31 touchdowns

— Davis Mattek (@DavisMattek) August 16, 2019

Definitely possible he hits his ceiling in an otherwise down year for Tampa.

At their current ADPs, the grey beards (Rivers/Brady/Ben) also capable of hitting those marks don’t carry the ?’s that have accompanied Jameis in the past. They appeal more to this risk averse drafter

— Matthew Giraldi (@MGiraldi) August 16, 2019

Basically a 0% chance I ever leave my draft with a QB like that. You are likely able to stream QB production that would match that. Winston upside season could actually swing your league.

— Davis Mattek (@DavisMattek) August 16, 2019

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