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The NFL was dealt some shocking news on Saturday Night when Indianapolis Colts quarterback Andrew Luck surprisingly retired from the NFL due to injuries that have taken a toll on him through his seven-year career. Former backup quarterback Jacoby Brissett is now Luck’s replacement for this season. The Colts are losing a quarterback that had 4,593 yards passing and 39 passing touchdowns in 2018, so Brissett will have some big shoes to fill in 2019 if this offense is going to be as successful as it was last season.
For fantasy football owners, a reevaluation of the entire Colts roster is in order for this year and future years. While Luck was a valuable fantasy quarterback, his surprise retirement also impacts everyone else on the roster. Here is how I see this retirement affecting the Colts in fantasy football in 2019 and beyond.
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Jacoby Brissett (QB): One good thing for fantasy owners is that we did see him play for an entire season with the Colts back in 2017 when Luck was injured. That gives us something to go on when evaluating the roster with him behind center, even if it was a different coaching staff that year and even if he has improved in the two years since the 2017 season. He had only 3,098 yards passing, 13 passing touchdowns, seven interceptions, a league-high 52 sacks, and a QB rating of 81.7. He also had 63 rushing attempts for 260 yards and four rushing touchdowns.
The Colts have a much better offensive line in 2019, so they should be able to protect him better. They should also be able to run the football better than they did in 2017. He will still pass the ball, but probably only 30-35 times per game. Because he can run the football, Brissett has some fantasy appeal even without big passing numbers. He was the 20th-ranked fantasy quarterback in 2017 on a much weaker roster. That seems like a good place to rank him in 2019. He will not have value as your top fantasy quarterback as Luck did, but he will make a good streamer for a bye week or in a favorable matchup.
Marlon Mack (RB): The Colts are going to have to lean on the running game in Luck’s absence, so Mack should see more than the 195 carries he had in 12 games and 10 starts last year. He will also probably see a lot of attention from defenses, but the Colts have the offensive line to be a good running team. His ADP of 33 as the 17th-ranked fantasy running back is still a fair spot for a player that is now the centerpiece of their rushing offense.
Nyheim Hines (RB): His ADP is currently the 54th-ranked running back and 156th-overall player, which I also think is a fair ranking. He will be their receiving back, and he’ll look to build on the 63 receptions for 425 yards and two receiving touchdowns he had as a rookie. He probably would need something to happen to Mack to have good weekly fantasy value, but he will have enough of a role in the passing game to have value in PPR leagues, especially during the bye weeks and in good matchups.
T.Y. Hilton (WR): Hilton is the big loser in this retirement. He is one of the best deep threats in the NFL, and Luck had the arm strength to hit him at any spot on the field. Hilton averaged 16.7 yards per reception in 2018, which was good for eighth in the NFL. When Hilton had to play without Luck and with Brissett in 2017, he had only 57 receptions for 966 yards and four touchdowns. He was only the 25th-ranked fantasy receiver that season. That is probably a good place to value him this year, a WR3 that has the ability to make some big plays but lacks the quarterback to take advantage of his big-play ability downfield.
Devin Funchess (WR): He had 63 receptions for 840 yards and eight touchdowns in Carolina in 2017. However, he was not able to build on that in 2018, and he regressed to 44 receptions for 549 yards and four receiving touchdowns. That led to him leaving Carolina and coming to Indianapolis this off-season to give them a taller receiver in the red zone. He remains a player to monitor and add on the waiver wire, but only if he shows good chemistry with Brissett early in the season.
Parris Campbell (WR), Deon Cain (WR), Chester Rodgers (WR): There is a chance that Brissett develops chemistry with one of these young receivers, but at this point, they are just players to monitor on the waiver wire. The Colts will not have as good of a passing game as 2018, and they probably are not going to have lots of fantasy viable wide receivers. However, one of these guys could emerge as a surprise contributor to the offense. They should be monitored as waiver wire options.
Eric Ebron (TE) and Jack Doyle (TE): It was going to be tough for Ebron to duplicate his 2018 season when he had 66 receptions for 750 yards and 13 touchdowns. Now he must not only deal with losing Luck but also competition from Doyle. Doyle had a great season with Brissett at quarterback in 2017, as he finished that season with 80 receptions for 690 yards and four touchdowns. He was the eighth-ranked fantasy tight end that year with 129.0 fantasy points.
I probably would avoid this tight end situation altogether until there is some clarity there. Ebron is currently the eighth-ranked tight end and 73rd player going off the board. That is too expensive for a player that was likely to regress even if Luck played this year. Doyle is currently not being drafted, so he is someone to monitor on the waiver wire. He could end up being the tight end to own in Indianapolis if he and Brissett can reestablish their 2017 chemistry.
Adam Vinatieri (K): Vinatieri was the 14th-ranked kicker in 2017 without Luck and he was the 11th-ranked kicker with him in 2018. Luck’s retirement should not significantly impact his fantasy value. He is still a streaming K2 in 2019.
Indianapolis Colts (DST): The Colts were one of only eight defenses that failed to score 100 fantasy points in 2018. They should remain a waiver wire defense in 2019.
Dynasty Impact: For fantasy owners in dynasty leagues, I think that it is hard to know the implications that this retirement will have on the Colts beyond this season. There is not a lot of certainty at the quarterback position, as Brissett is only making $2 million in the final year of his deal. Behind him, they have Chad Kelly and Phillip Walker, neither of whom project as a likely starter in 2019 or 2020.
The two most likely outcomes are that Brissett plays well enough to earn a contract extension later this year or that the Colts just go in a completely different direction by signing a free agent quarterback in 2020 and drafting one in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft. Therefore, the younger dynasty prospects like Campbell, Cain, Funchess, and Hines are impossible to project beyond this year, because a new quarterback in 2020 could completely change their future outlook.
Campbell is probably the most exciting of the prospects, and he should be held for a season in dynasty leagues. Cain and Hines could also be factors in 2020 or 2021, but they probably need another year of development and a positive outcome at the quarterback position. Funchess is only on a one-year contract, and if he does not make an impact this year, he could be on his third team in 2020. His future value has the least upside at this point, and he would be the one I would be least excited about holding for future seasons.
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Derek Lofland is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Derek, check out his archive and follow him @DerekLofland.
