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Last week, I compared the Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) with the ADP at CBS. Today, I present some discrepancies between FantasyPros’ ECR and ESPN ADP. There were more discrepancies between the ECR and ESPN ADP (this time, for PPR instead of standard), so I tweaked the thresholds below from the previously linked ECR vs. CBS ADP piece. You can tinker with increasing and decreasing those using our Dissenting Opinions tool here. Furthermore, while I presented all of the players who hit the thresholds in the previous piece, there were so many players with sizable differences at ESPN that I’ve had to pick and choose who to include in the tables below.
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Quarterback (+/- 6) inside top-35 QBs
ECR likes him more
ECR | Player | Team | ADP | Difference |
12 | Jameis Winston | TB | 19 | 7 |
26 | Andy Dalton | CIN | 36 | 10 |
32 | Ryan Fitzpatrick | MIA | 52 | 20 |
33 | Josh Rosen | MIA | 125 | 92 |
34 | Case Keenum | WAS | 126 | 92 |
ESPN ADP likes him more
ADP | Player | Team | ECR | Difference |
10 | Tom Brady | NE | 21 | 11 |
29 | Nathan Peterman | OAK | 88 | 59 |
Among top-20 QBs, the experts like Winston much more than the ESPN drafters with a seven-spot gap between his ECR of 12 and ADP of 19. Conversely, ESPN drafters must love the G.O.A.T. since they are selecting him as the 10th quarterback off the board, on average, while his ECR is outside the top-20 QBs at QB21. I’m inclined to lean toward the ECR on both Winston and Brady, but the latter is more intriguing now with Josh Gordon reinstated. ESPN drafters’ love affair with Peterman is downright baffling, however. Additionally, they’re taking their avoidance of Miami’s quarterback competition too far. Say what you will about Fitz’s erratic quarterback play in real life, but his willingness to take chances has played well in fantasy leagues at times (such as early last season).
Running Back (+/- 6)
ECR likes him more
ECR | Player | Team | ADP | Difference |
13 | Damien Williams | KC | 21 | 8 |
32 | Latavius Murray | NO | 39 | 7 |
40 | Dion Lewis | TEN | 47 | 7 |
43 | Kalen Ballage | MIA | 49 | 6 |
51 | Ito Smith | ATL | 73 | 22 |
53 | Chris Thompson | WAS | 59 | 6 |
54 | Damien Harris | NE | 61 | 7 |
55 | Justice Hill | BAL | 62 | 7 |
ESPN ADP likes him more
ADP | Player | Team | ECR | Difference |
10 | Melvin Gordon | LAC | 16 | 6 |
29 | Derrius Guice | WAS | 35 | 6 |
36 | Duke Johnson | HOU | 42 | 6 |
44 | Kareem Hunt | CLE | 56 | 12 |
48 | Jalen Richard | OAK | 62 | 14 |
52 | Tony Pollard | DAL | 65 | 13 |
53 | Giovani Bernard | CIN | 59 | 6 |
56 | Darwin Thompson | KC | 66 | 10 |
Williams is a polarizing figure in fantasy circles, but I’m fully on the hype bandwagon. Predictably, with ESPN drafters less enamored with Williams than the experts, Darwin Thompson appears in the second table. Murray is a repeat visitor from the ECR vs CBS ADP piece, and I’m still siding with the experts. Hunt is also a repeat visitor with drafters once again chasing a high-profile player despite his eight-game suspension and Nick Chubb ahead of him when he returns. Oddly, gamers at ESPN are hardly phased by Gordon’s holdout but are drafting Pollard 13 spots higher than his ECR, seemingly because they’re buying into Ezekiel Elliott’s holdout. Strange.
Wide Receiver (+/- 8)
ECR likes him more
ECR | Player | Team | ADP | Difference |
33 | Josh Gordon | NE | 48 | 15 |
45 | Anthony Miller | CHI | 58 | 13 |
55 | John Brown | BUF | 66 | 11 |
58 | DaeSean Hamilton | DEN | 68 | 10 |
64 | Tre’Quan Smith | NO | 358 | 294 |
66 | Quincy Enunwa | NYJ | 356 | 290 |
68 | Devante Parker | MIA | 361 | 293 |
69 | Marquise Goodwin | SF | 95 | 26 |
70 | Robert Foster | BUF | 354 | 284 |
ESPN ADP likes him more
ADP | Player | Team | ECR | Difference |
43 | Michael Gallup | DAL | 52 | 9 |
46 | James Washington | PIT | 56 | 10 |
49 | D.K. Metcalf | SEA | 62 | 13 |
62 | Marquise Brown | BAL | 74 | 12 |
64 | Mecole Hardman | KC | 76 | 12 |
65 | Cole Beasley | BUF | 84 | 19 |
69 | Ted Ginn | NO | 80 | 11 |
72 | Jalen Hurd | SF | 102 | 30 |
73 | Preston Williams | MIA | 122 | 49 |
The experts have quickly adjusted to Gordon’s reinstatement. When I looked at the ECR versus CBS ADP, the CBS drafters were selecting Gordon much earlier. This go-round, the ECR likes Gordon more than drafters. I love Gordon as a WR3 this year and I believe he’s a top-30 wideout. Interestingly, teammates galore appearing in opposing tables. The ECR is planting its flag on John Brown and Foster from the Bills, Tre’Quan Smith from the Saints, Parker from the Dolphins, and Goodwin from the 49ers while ESPN drafters are rolling with Beasley, Ginn, Williams, and Hurd, respectively.
The field-stretching abilities of Brown and Foster on paper — or on the field, in the case of Foster’s performance at the end of last year — fit with Josh Allen’s strong arm, while Beasley is going to depend on Allen’s inaccuracy not getting him killed on errant throws underneath. Smith has some breakout potential for the Saints, while Ginn has previously demonstrated chemistry with Drew Brees. Both are better fits for best-ball formats than weekly leagues, but if picking between the two, I’d rather roll with Smith’s untapped upside as a dart throw late in drafts.
Parker has routinely failed to live up to the expectations as a first-round pick, and Williams is turning heads in the preseason. Give me Williams out of that pairing of teammates. Finally, Goodwin was a favorite of Jimmy Garoppolo when the two were healthy, but the oft-injured burner has more competition for looks — including rookie Hurd — and is expected to see his snaps scaled back. Goodwin epitomizes the type of big-play receiver I like to use when my regular starters are on bye, but he’s not someone I expect to provide consistent week-to-week production. Hurd worked a lot in the slot in college, as head coach Kyle Shanahan pointed out in this piece from NBC Sports Bay Area’s Matt Maiocco, but he’s also working outside and his coach believes that “he’s capable of doing both.” He’s a worthy late-round target in PPR formats who I believe the ECR is underrating.
Tight End (+/- 4)
ECR likes him more
ECR | Player | Team | ADP | Difference |
17 | Jack Doyle | IND | 21 | 4 |
22 | Chris Herndon IV | NYJ | 27 | 5 |
24 | Mike Gesicki | MIA | 186 | 162 |
ESPN ADP likes him more
ADP | Player | Team | ECR | Difference |
13 | Greg Olsen | CAR | 19 | 6 |
20 | Jason Witten | DAL | 28 | 8 |
25 | Darren Waller | OAK | 31 | 6 |
Only two of the players in the two tables combined are inside the top-20 tight ends, and none are being drafted as starters in 12-team leagues. ESPN drafters love the grey beards with veterans Olsen and Witten going earlier in drafts than their ECR. However, I’m on the ESPN drafters’ side in regards to Waller. He has some eye-popping measurables that you can check out at his PlayerProfiler page, and I’ll be nabbing him often in my fantasy drafts as a second tight end when I pass on the studs and take fliers on the position. Having said that, I also believe there’s merit to taking him as a trade chip. He’s even a smart pick to make your stud an in-season trade chip if you took one earlier and drafted Waller late.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.