Skip to main content

Fantasy Football Rankings: Expert Consensus vs. ESPN ADP (2019 Fantasy Football)

Fantasy Football Rankings: Expert Consensus vs. ESPN ADP (2019 Fantasy Football)

Beyond our fantasy football content, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you prepare for your draft this season. From our free mock Draft Simulator – which allows you to mock draft against realistic opponents – to our Draft Assistant – which optimizes your picks with expert advice – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football draft season.

Last week, I compared the Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) with the ADP at CBS. Today, I present some discrepancies between FantasyPros’ ECR and ESPN ADP. There were more discrepancies between the ECR and ESPN ADP (this time, for PPR instead of standard), so I tweaked the thresholds below from the previously linked ECR vs. CBS ADP piece. You can tinker with increasing and decreasing those using our Dissenting Opinions tool here. Furthermore, while I presented all of the players who hit the thresholds in the previous piece, there were so many players with sizable differences at ESPN that I’ve had to pick and choose who to include in the tables below.

Need more advice? Get access to our Draft Kit and Draft Wizard tools partner-arrow

Quarterback (+/- 6) inside top-35 QBs

ECR likes him more

ECR Player Team ADP Difference
12 Jameis Winston TB 19 7
26 Andy Dalton CIN 36 10
32 Ryan Fitzpatrick MIA 52 20
33 Josh Rosen MIA 125 92
34 Case Keenum WAS 126 92

 
ESPN ADP likes him more

ADP Player Team ECR Difference
10 Tom Brady NE 21 11
29 Nathan Peterman OAK 88 59

 
Among top-20 QBs, the experts like Winston much more than the ESPN drafters with a seven-spot gap between his ECR of 12 and ADP of 19. Conversely, ESPN drafters must love the G.O.A.T. since they are selecting him as the 10th quarterback off the board, on average, while his ECR is outside the top-20 QBs at QB21. I’m inclined to lean toward the ECR on both Winston and Brady, but the latter is more intriguing now with Josh Gordon reinstated. ESPN drafters’ love affair with Peterman is downright baffling, however. Additionally, they’re taking their avoidance of Miami’s quarterback competition too far. Say what you will about Fitz’s erratic quarterback play in real life, but his willingness to take chances has played well in fantasy leagues at times (such as early last season).

Running Back (+/- 6)

ECR likes him more

ECR Player Team ADP Difference
13 Damien Williams KC 21 8
32 Latavius Murray NO 39 7
40 Dion Lewis TEN 47 7
43 Kalen Ballage MIA 49 6
51 Ito Smith ATL 73 22
53 Chris Thompson WAS 59 6
54 Damien Harris NE 61 7
55 Justice Hill BAL 62 7

 
ESPN ADP likes him more

ADP Player Team ECR Difference
10 Melvin Gordon LAC 16 6
29 Derrius Guice WAS 35 6
36 Duke Johnson HOU 42 6
44 Kareem Hunt CLE 56 12
48 Jalen Richard OAK 62 14
52 Tony Pollard DAL 65 13
53 Giovani Bernard CIN 59 6
56 Darwin Thompson KC 66 10

 
Williams is a polarizing figure in fantasy circles, but I’m fully on the hype bandwagon. Predictably, with ESPN drafters less enamored with Williams than the experts, Darwin Thompson appears in the second table. Murray is a repeat visitor from the ECR vs CBS ADP piece, and I’m still siding with the experts. Hunt is also a repeat visitor with drafters once again chasing a high-profile player despite his eight-game suspension and Nick Chubb ahead of him when he returns. Oddly, gamers at ESPN are hardly phased by Gordon’s holdout but are drafting Pollard 13 spots higher than his ECR, seemingly because they’re buying into Ezekiel Elliott’s holdout. Strange.

Wide Receiver (+/- 8)

ECR likes him more

ECR Player Team ADP Difference
33 Josh Gordon NE 48 15
45 Anthony Miller CHI 58 13
55 John Brown BUF 66 11
58 DaeSean Hamilton DEN 68 10
64 Tre’Quan Smith NO 358 294
66 Quincy Enunwa NYJ 356 290
68 Devante Parker MIA 361 293
69 Marquise Goodwin SF 95 26
70 Robert Foster BUF 354 284

 
ESPN ADP likes him more

ADP Player Team ECR Difference
43 Michael Gallup DAL 52 9
46 James Washington PIT 56 10
49 D.K. Metcalf SEA 62 13
62 Marquise Brown BAL 74 12
64 Mecole Hardman KC 76 12
65 Cole Beasley BUF 84 19
69 Ted Ginn NO 80 11
72 Jalen Hurd SF 102 30
73 Preston Williams MIA 122 49

 
The experts have quickly adjusted to Gordon’s reinstatement. When I looked at the ECR versus CBS ADP, the CBS drafters were selecting Gordon much earlier. This go-round, the ECR likes Gordon more than drafters. I love Gordon as a WR3 this year and I believe he’s a top-30 wideout. Interestingly, teammates galore appearing in opposing tables. The ECR is planting its flag on John Brown and Foster from the Bills, Tre’Quan Smith from the Saints, Parker from the Dolphins, and Goodwin from the 49ers while ESPN drafters are rolling with Beasley, Ginn, Williams, and Hurd, respectively.

The field-stretching abilities of Brown and Foster on paper — or on the field, in the case of Foster’s performance at the end of last year — fit with Josh Allen’s strong arm, while Beasley is going to depend on Allen’s inaccuracy not getting him killed on errant throws underneath. Smith has some breakout potential for the Saints, while Ginn has previously demonstrated chemistry with Drew Brees. Both are better fits for best-ball formats than weekly leagues, but if picking between the two, I’d rather roll with Smith’s untapped upside as a dart throw late in drafts.

Parker has routinely failed to live up to the expectations as a first-round pick, and Williams is turning heads in the preseason. Give me Williams out of that pairing of teammates. Finally, Goodwin was a favorite of Jimmy Garoppolo when the two were healthy, but the oft-injured burner has more competition for looks — including rookie Hurd — and is expected to see his snaps scaled back. Goodwin epitomizes the type of big-play receiver I like to use when my regular starters are on bye, but he’s not someone I expect to provide consistent week-to-week production. Hurd worked a lot in the slot in college, as head coach Kyle Shanahan pointed out in this piece from NBC Sports Bay Area’s Matt Maiocco, but he’s also working outside and his coach believes that “he’s capable of doing both.” He’s a worthy late-round target in PPR formats who I believe the ECR is underrating.

Tight End (+/- 4)

ECR likes him more

ECR Player Team ADP Difference
17 Jack Doyle IND 21 4
22 Chris Herndon IV NYJ 27 5
24 Mike Gesicki MIA 186 162

 
ESPN ADP likes him more

ADP Player Team ECR Difference
13 Greg Olsen CAR 19 6
20 Jason Witten DAL 28 8
25 Darren Waller OAK 31 6

 
Only two of the players in the two tables combined are inside the top-20 tight ends, and none are being drafted as starters in 12-team leagues. ESPN drafters love the grey beards with veterans Olsen and Witten going earlier in drafts than their ECR. However, I’m on the ESPN drafters’ side in regards to Waller. He has some eye-popping measurables that you can check out at his PlayerProfiler page, and I’ll be nabbing him often in my fantasy drafts as a second tight end when I pass on the studs and take fliers on the position. Having said that, I also believe there’s merit to taking him as a trade chip. He’s even a smart pick to make your stud an in-season trade chip if you took one earlier and drafted Waller late.

Need more advice? Get access to our Draft Kit and Draft Wizard tools partner-arrow


Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Google Play | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | TuneIn | RSS

Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.

More Articles

Thor Nystrom’s 2024 NFL Draft Big Board: Top 500 Rookie Rankings & Comps

Thor Nystrom’s 2024 NFL Draft Big Board: Top 500 Rookie Rankings & Comps

fp-headshot by Thor Nystrom | 10 min read
19 Consensus Early Breakout Candidates (2024 Fantasy Football)

19 Consensus Early Breakout Candidates (2024 Fantasy Football)

fp-headshot by FantasyPros Staff | 8 min read
Thor Nystrom’s 2024 NFL Draft Prospect Rankings: Tight End

Thor Nystrom’s 2024 NFL Draft Prospect Rankings: Tight End

fp-headshot by Thor Nystrom | 1 min read
Dynasty Rookie Mock Draft: Superflex, Four Rounds (2024 Fantasy Football)

Dynasty Rookie Mock Draft: Superflex, Four Rounds (2024 Fantasy Football)

fp-headshot by Pat Fitzmaurice | 7 min read

About Author

Hide

Current Article

4 min read

Thor Nystrom’s 2024 NFL Draft Big Board: Top 500 Rookie Rankings & Comps

Next Up - Thor Nystrom’s 2024 NFL Draft Big Board: Top 500 Rookie Rankings & Comps

Next Article