This week’s pitching selections features a couple of repeat visitors and a pair of new faces. Three of the four pitchers discussed below also have something else in common. The common thread is pitching for new organizations. One of them demonstrated immediately that a change of scenery might have been all he needed to warrant a look in fantasy leagues.

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Aaron Sanchez (HOU): Yahoo – 42%, ESPN – 18%
Well, my write-up for Sanchez in the Fantasy Baseball Weekly Planner has aged nicely. One start against a bad Mariners offense is hardly definitive proof Sanchez is now a fantasy asset with the Astros, but it was a brilliant start. Sanchez fired six hitless innings (as part of a combined no-hitter), two walks, a hit batsman, and six strikeouts. Perhaps the biggest takeaway from the game is something that many were fully expecting.

Sanchez used his traditionally best pitch, his curveball, a season-high 30.4% of the time against the Mariners. This season, his curve has the highest swinging-strike percentage of any of his offerings at 14.8%, according to FanGraphs, and hitters have managed only a 73 wRC+ against it. Expect the Astros to continue to ask him to lean on his wicked curve often. I carefully described his curve as traditionally his best pitch, though, because his changeup actually has the lowest wRC+ (67) against it this year of all his offerings. Yet the changeup’s swinging-strike percentage has crated from 16.6% in 2018 to 10.6% this year, and his curve has a lower wRC+ over his career than the changeup has yielded.

For as good as Sanchez was in his first start, there are some reasons to expect some hiccups still. He threw a first-pitch strike only 47.6% of the time. He was in the zone only 32.6% of the time, and his 30.7% O-Swing rate was a bit below this year’s league average of 31.4%, per FanGraphs. Having said that, his effort against the Mariners could be described as effectively wild, as hitters swung at only 53.3% of the pitches he threw in the strike zone, far below the season’s league average of 68.5%. Getting called strikes in the zone helps offset the slightly below-average rate of opponents fishing off the plate.

With one very good start, Sanchez has played himself into a must-grab player in 14-team mixers and larger. He’s also a decent speculative add in 12-team leagues for players in need of pitching help or those with a bench spot they can use to chase upside. Gamers have already taken notice, as his Yahoo ownership rate was only 14% on Sunday when I initially began working on this piece. It’s skyrocketed to over 40% since. His next start projects to be a fantasy-friendly one against the Orioles in Baltimore.

Homer Bailey (OAK): Yahoo – 15%, ESPN – 6%
Bailey has taken four turns in Oakland’s rotation, and three of his starts have been of the quality start variety. The one outlier was a disastrous turn against the Astros that’s inflated his ERA to 6.97 across 20.2 innings with Oakland. In the other three starts, he owns a 3.38 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, and 18 strikeouts in 18.2 innings. The Astros rank as MLB’s top offense in wRC+ (121), so I’m willing to cut Bailey some slack for getting knocked around by them.

The fact he’s bounced back in his last two turns supports the notion he can be useful when not facing Houston’s juggernaut lineup. Speaking of his last two turns, there seems to be some odd statistical discrepancies between FanGraphs and Brooks Baseball. FanGraphs credits Bailey with only a 9.5% SwStr rate on July 27 versus the Rangers and a 9.9% on August 1 versus the Brewers.

However, Brooks Baseball credits Bailey with 14 whiffs generated on 105 pitches against the Rangers, good for a 13.3% whiff percentage, and 12 whiffs on 101 pitches (11.9%) against the Brewers. ESPN’s box score for Bailey’s start against the Brewers doesn’t provide the called strikes and swinging strikes data for either starter, but the box score for his turn against the Rangers credits him with 14 swinging strikes — identical to his whiff number at Brooks Baseball. Bailey appears to be doing a better job of missing bats than his swinging-strike percentage at FanGraphs indicates, making him a bit more exciting in fantasy than one might believe just looking at that data.

The veteran righty is scheduled to face the Cubs in Chicago for his next start. If the wind is blowing out that day, gamers would be wise to bench Bailey. If it’s blowing in, however, he’s a usable option. His next projected start after that is a tantalizing turn in San Francisco on Wednesday, August 14.

Tyler Beede (SF): Yahoo – 8%, ESPN – 5%
Beede has hit a bit of a rough patch, allowing four earned runs or more in his last three turns. His most recent start stands out as the worst. He coughed up five runs on eight hits, two walks, and three strikeouts in only 3.2 innings at Colorado. Coors Field is a house of horrors for pitchers, though, so it’s probably best not to dismiss Beede’s fantasy viability based on a bad start there.

A couple of weeks ago, I discussed Beede in this space and pointed out new regular usage of a slider in his repertoire. He’s now up to a half-dozen starts in which he’s reached double-digit percentage usage of the slider, and he’s thrown the pitch 20.9% of the time throughout that stretch. The six-start time frame provides some intriguing numbers for gamers to take notice of in 14-team mixers and larger formats.

In this small sample size, he’s pitched 36.0 innings to the tune of a 4.25 ERA (4.43 SIERA), 1.33 WHIP, 3.9 BB%, and 19.4 K%. Those aren’t spectacular numbers, but they’re not bad when also considering one of the starts was a clunker at Coors. Additionally, Beede might have more strikeout potential with a gaudy 12.3% SwStr rate in that stretch. The righty’s next two turns project to be against the Phillies in San Francisco and then versus the Diamondbacks in Arizona. The Phillies and Diamondbacks rank 18th and 19th in wRC+ against right-handed pitchers, respectively. Furthermore, the Phillies rank 23rd in wRC+ (86) on the road while the Diamondbacks are 22nd in wRC+ (90) at home. Both starts are favorable for Beede.

Drew Smyly (PHI): Yahoo – 2%, ESPN – 12%
Smyly owns an ugly 7.01 ERA (5.07 SIERA), but those numbers are largely inflated by getting pummeled with the Rangers. In three starts for the Phillies, he’s flashed fantasy usefulness thanks in large part to drastically changing his pitch mix.

Smyly has completely shelved his changeup after throwing it 9.7% of the time for the Rangers. He has also cut his fastball usage back from 52.8% to 39.4%, slightly upped his curve usage from 27.0% to 29.9%, and kicked his cutter up from only 10.4% to 30.6%. His new pitch mix has worked wonders for his plate discipline numbers, with his O-Swing rate rising from 22.4% to 40.4%, his F-Strike% swelling to 65.2% from just 57.8% with Texas, and his swinging-strike percentage ballooning from 9.1% to 12.7%.

In three starts spanning 18.0 innings with the Phillies, Smyly has a 3.00 ERA (3.40 SIERA), 0.89 WHIP, 6.1 BB%, 30.3 K%, and 47.6 GB%. He’s played himself into a fringe option in 12-team mixers and a must-own player in anything deeper. His next start is a dreamy matchup with the Giants in Oracle Park, making Smyly a streaming option even in shallow leagues.

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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.