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PPR Mid-Round Pick Draft Strategy (2019 Fantasy Football)

PPR Mid-Round Pick Draft Strategy (2019 Fantasy Football)

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So you ended up with one of the middle picks in your fantasy league. With the big four off of the board, the next names to be selected comes down to personal preference. ADP suggests a particular player may be the best value, but with the surefire elites of fantasy already taken, the onus is on the fantasy owner to select who they think can make the biggest fantasy contribution in 2019. The first round is filled with unbelievable talents so relying on your personal rankings and tiers is critical on draft day.

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Strategy
As discussed in our early pick edition, marrying yourself to a particular draft strategy in terms of positions drafted is often not in a fantasy owner’s best interests. Rather, a best player available approach with an eye on roster composition and league settings is suggested. Taking the best player available is the ideal scenario, but as we will see in our fifth overall draft, you do eventually have to address talent at certain positions. Here are how the first seven picks played out in mock drafts from the middle four overall draft slots. The thought process behind each pick will follow. 

Round Fifth Overall Sixth Overall Seventh Overall Eighth Overall
1 David Johnson David Johnson David Johnson DeAndre Hopkins
2 Joe Mixon JuJu Smith-Schuster Dalvin Cook Travis Kelce
3 George Kittle Keenan Allen Stefon Diggs Josh Jacobs
4 Kenny Golladay Josh Jacobs Josh Jacobs David Montgomery
5 David Montgomery Andrew Luck David Montgomery Calvin Ridley
6 Will Fuller Derrius Guice Derrius Guice Corey Davis
7 Derrius Guice Will Fuller Will Fuller Tevin Coleman

 
Fifth Overall
At fifth overall, my strategy is to draft David Johnson. After Ezekiel Elliott, Saquon Barkley, Alvin Kamara, and Christian McCaffrey are off of the board, David Johnson is my one and only target. With my second pick Tyreek Hill, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Mike Evans and/or Keenan Allen are my ideal targets, especially at 2.08. When it came to my pick, Joe Mixon was somehow still on the board. I selected him immediately as he is someone I would target in the mid-to-late first round. All of my targets went off the board before my third-round pick, but that left George Kittle for the taking. He may take a step back in terms of target share, but the upgrade at quarterback and the expected resulting target separation can help to balance that out.

By my fourth-round pick, I felt the need to address the wide receiver position. Taking one of the elite tight ends means you are going to suffer at a position, and in this case, with my first two picks being running backs, that position is going to be wide receiver. The wide receivers left on the board that appeared to have the highest upside and were worth considering in the fourth round were Kenny Golladay, Tyler Lockett, and Mike Williams. I have Golladay ranked significantly higher than Lockett and Williams and would not feel comfortable with either of them as my number one receiver. Golladay is primed to be a target monster, especially now that the Lions have released Theo Riddick, who saw 74 targets last season. For my fifth-round pick one of my top-15 ranked backs was still on the board in David Montgomery, which made him an easy selection.

With my sixth-round pick I needed a wide receiver, and the highest-ranked player still on the board that made sense ADP wise (I have N’Keal Harry higher) was Will Fuller. Finally, with my seventh pick, my debate was between N’Keal Harry and Derrius Guice. I have Guice ranked higher and selected him due to the possibility that Harry could still be on the board when my eighth-round pick came around.

Sixth Overall
David Johnson was still on the board for my first pick at sixth overall, which made him an easy selection. I took him at fifth overall and am more than happy to do so at sixth overall. With Joe Mixon and Le’Veon Bell off of the board by the time my second-round pick came around, my selection came down to either Dalvin Cook or JuJu Smith-Schuster. Smith-Schuster seemed like the better value at this point of the draft so he was my selection. Keenan Allen was somehow still on the board at 3.06, which made him an easy selection. Depending on league size and settings, I am willing to take Allen as early as the start of the second round, so I was thrilled to land him at this point of the draft.

With my fourth-round pick, I needed another running back. David Montgomery and Josh Jacobs were my two targets at fourth, and with Montgomery already off of the board, Jacobs became the easy pick. With my fifth-round pick, I was presented with a conundrum. My wide receiver targets Kenny Golladay and Tyler Lockett went after my fourth, leaving there no wideout worthy of selecting in the fifth. O.J. Howard was still on the board and, as elite of a talent as he is, he is still sharing snaps with Cameron Brate.

This led me to take a look at the quarterbacks still on the board. In most cases, I would have gone with Aaron Rodgers or Deshaun Watson, but the truth is that Andrew Luck may have a higher ceiling. He showed last season with a talent deficient roster that he can produce at a level only Patrick Mahomes can top. With new weapons Devin Funchess and Parris Campbell, and the return of Luck favorite Jack Doyle, Andrew Luck may threaten 50 passing touchdowns himself. He was my pick at 5.06.

At 6.08, I had to address the running back position. It is not often the sixth round rolls around and one of my teams does not already have three running backs rostered. With that being the case here I selected the highest-ranked player on my draft board in Derrius Guice. His ADP took a massive hit over the last two months, which has resulted in him dropping from 5.02 to 6.12 in average draft position. In the seventh round, the goal was to round out my wide receivers, and I was able to do just that with the talented Will Fuller. With Corey Davis being selected at 7.01, and Harry possibly lasting until my eighth-round pick, Fuller was an easy call at 7.06.

Seventh Overall
At seventh overall, I was simultaneously thrilled and confused as to why David Johnson was still on the board. Did I miss an injury report or a suspension notification? As I knew neither to be the case, I happily added him to my team with my first-round pick.

With my second-round pick, I was hoping for Joe Mixon, Le’Veon Bell, or Todd Gurley, but with all three off of the board, I opted for Dalvin Cook. I decided to target a number one receiver in the third round. Cook’s teammate Stefon Diggs was the final WR1 left based on my rankings.

With my fourth-round pick, I chose to go with Josh Jacobs and hope that Kenny Golladay was still available with my fifth-round pick came around. With Golladay off of the board, I decided on David Montgomery with pick 5.07. I now had four running backs rostered, but I could not ignore a value like Mongtomery at that point of the fifth round.

With my sixth-round pick, Derrius Guice was staring me in the face and felt like far too good of a value to pass up. Based on my rankings he was the last high-end RB2 left on the board. Corey Davis slipped right out of my fingers and he was selected at 7.06. As a result, I had to decide between Will Fuller and N’Keal Harry. Believing Harry could last until 8.06, I opted for Fuller with my seventh-round pick.

Eighth Overall
With David Johnson off of the board at eighth overall, my ideal target in the first round is either Davante Adams or DeAndre Hopkins. Based on the majority of the drafts I have participated in this year, Adams is the player who would typically still be available at 1.08, however, it was Hopkins who was still available in this draft. Hopkins is my number one ranked wide receiver so I was very happy to land him as the third wideout off of the board.

At 2.05, I went with Travis Kelce because he was too good of a value to pass up. A borderline first-round talent, Kelce should be head and shoulders above the rest of the tight ends in fantasy. This is especially true with both the Philadelphia Eagles and San Francisco 49ers upgrading the weapons around their own stud tight ends.

I admittedly and knowingly reached for Josh Jacobs in the third round. The thinking here was that if I reached for Jacobs in the third round I could assure that I landed David Montgomery in the fourth round. This would mean that I was able to nab two of my top-15 running backs for 2019, and would not have to settle for the ‘best of the rest’ as my RB2 if I chose to go wide receiver again in the third round. David Montgomery was indeed available at 4.05 so I quickly snapped him up.

In the fifth round I had to address the wide receiver position. More and more top talent was flying off of the board and I needed to land someone I was comfortable with as my WR2. I thought about Corey Davis, but rationalized that I would probably be able to wait until the turn to add him to my squad. As such I went with Calvin Ridley. Ridley should emerge as the clear cut number two across from Julio Jones and appears to have a high floor.

At 6.05, Corey Davis was indeed still on the board and was quickly added to my roster. In the seventh round, I finally felt the need to land a top-tier RB3. The best one on the board was Tevin Coleman. He is in a crowded backfield, but is the superior talent and is playing for his old offensive coordinator who was able to coax his most effective seasons out of him.

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Raju Byfield is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Raju, check out his profile and follow him @FantasyContext.

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