With under a month to go until the fantasy football season kicks off, we will take a look at the 12 quarterbacks projected to finish the season as QB1s. Unlike Kyler Murray who also has a case to be included in this list, these signal-callers all have proven NFL track records. All 12 of these quarterbacks have strong cases for a top-five finish at the position. Furthermore, they have all, save one, welcomed new assets in the passing game. Let’s take a look at the quarterbacks that fit the bill.

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Patrick Mahomes (KC)
Fresh off the all-time greatest fantasy season ever by a quarterback, Patrick Mahomes is the favorite to lead the position in fantasy points once again. There are some obvious regression concerns as no QB has ever thrown for 50 TDs in back to back seasons. Adding fuel to that discourse is that Mahomes had only 12 interceptions despite throwing 25 interceptable passes in 2018.

Mahomes ranked first in the NFL with 9.2 adjusted yards per attempt, was first with 0.62 points per dropback, and was first with an incredible 25.9 fantasy points per game. As per Scott Barrett of PFF, this was 6.5 more points than the QB6 and 8.4 points more than the QB12. With Kareem Hunt not coming back one could argue that Mahomes now has a lower weekly floor, however one could also posit that this will give him even more of a reason to throw. Mahomes was a QB1 (and finished in the top-7) in every game that Hunt missed. He had two non-QB1 games with Hunt and four total outside of the top-10.

With an offseason to continue building a rapport with Sammy Watkins, Mahomes actually sees his fantasy ceiling increase. Chris Conley is gone, but Mecole Hardman is ready to take his place as the go-route receiver. Mahomes was able to throw for 50 TDs despite passing for just one touchdown over a two week stretch against the Denver Broncos and Jacksonville Jaguars. Hitting the 50 mark again would make history, but a number in the mid to high 40s should be easily attainable.

Deshaun Watson (HOU)
Of quarterbacks who played in at least 18 games (which excludes Patrick Mahomes), Deshaun Watson is first in fantasy points per game over the last two seasons. Watson seems destined for a top-five finish this year if he can make it through the season healthy. The health of his receiver corps will play a correlative factor as to whether or not he can produce at a level to match his ADP among quarterbacks.

Fifth in fantasy points per game and sixth in fantasy points per dropback, a healthy receiver room coupled with the addition of Duke Johnson could boost him back up to the overall QB1 pace he played at in 2017. Watson always has a read with DeAndre Hopkins on the field, and with improved play from the tight end group and new additions in the backfield, Watson will enjoy the most explosive set of weapons he has had thus far in his career.

Andrew Luck (IND)
Andrew Luck has been one of the very best fantasy options at his position when healthy. According to FFStatistics, Luck has put up 23 top-12 quarterback games over the past three seasons. Luck played in only 31 games due to injury. This equates to putting up QB1 numbers 74.1 percent of the time. To put this in context, Aaron Rodgers put up QB1 numbers in 25 of his 39 contests or 64.1 percent of the time. Matt Ryan did so in 27 of 48 contests, or 56.25 percent of the time.

In all likelihood, Luck will push to be a top-three quarterback this season. From Week 4 to Week 16 of the 2018 season, Luck was the QB2 in overall fantasy points and number three in average fantasy points. A vastly improved defense coupled with the additions of Devin Funchess and Parris Campbell, and the returns of Jack Doyle and Deon Cain will give the talented QB a litany of weapons at his disposal. Luck has never had such an explosive and talented supporting cast in his career and his owners should quickly reap the fantasy benefits. The third QB off the board based on consensus ADP, Luck has the talent to surpass his draft position.

Carson Wentz (PHI)
Despite a season that is viewed as a letdown by many, Wentz had six QB1 finishes in 11 games during the 2018 season. He had eight total outings where he ranked as the QB13 or higher. One of the most consistent quarterbacks in the league, according to FFStatistics, Carson Wentz has eight top-five fantasy QB finishes over the past two seasons. To put this in context, Matt Ryan has had only five, Aaron Rodgers had only four. Wentz had 17 finishes as a QB1 in that timeframe. Ryan had 15, Rodgers 14. Carson Wentz missed eight games.

Wentz, as alluded to above is one of the most consistent fantasy producers at his position and saw the Eagles make massive upgrades to his supporting staff this offseason. They brought back a former fan favorite in the explosive DeSean Jackson. They drafted a future number two receiver in JJ Arcega-Whiteside. And if that was not enough they finally addressed their horrific running back situation. Jordan Howard is not going to get anyone excited, but still presents an upgrade over what the Eagles had last season. Then they drafted Saquon Barkley’s former backup and a talented, sometimes electrifying back in his own right in Miles Sanders.

Currently the ninth QB off of the board based on consensus ADP, Wentz is a name to target on draft day. His floor has seen a massive spike and, if he can stay healthy, he is all but certain to outperform his current draft position.

Aaron Rodgers (GB)
Aaron Rodgers had a tumultuous, injury-riddled 2018 in which he had no true number two receiver and a head coach that had lost control of his team. With a new head coach in town, the fantasy arrow is pointing up for Rodgers. Gone is the unimaginative playcalling Aaron Rodgers constantly audibled out of at the line of scrimmage. Green Bay should see a boost in their plays per game with a more effective offense that is able to sustain more drives.

Green Bay will welcome back Geronimo Allison and is already seeing improvement from number two receiver Marquez Valdes-Scantling. The Packers are expected to lean more on the run game so his production may not match his ADP, but he is still one of the best bets to finish the season as a top-12 fantasy option.

Baker Mayfield (CLE)
Baker Mayfield would have pushed for QB1 numbers as a sophomore even if the Cleveland Browns made zero changes to their skill positions. He had four QB1 finishes last season (five if you include Week 17), but three of them came after Freddie Kitchens took over the reins as offensive coordinator. In fact, from that time on he was 10th in fantasy points.

With the massive upgrades to his supporting cast, Baker Mayfield should be a lock for a QB1 finish. Odell Beckham Jr. is one of the most talented wide receivers in the NFL and will provide a significant upgrade to Mayfield’s weekly floor. Adding Kareem Hunt to a backfield that already boasts Nick Chubb gives the Browns the best 1-2 punch in the league. It also helps to ensure that teams will be truly hesitant to run light boxes in an effort to shut down the passing game.

He will likely have some inconsistency due to fluctuating, game script based passing volumes. The Browns defense is vastly improved and they have the weapons in the running game to salt away as many leads as they desire. This means they will not need to pass the ball as much as one may like. Luckily, Mayfield has a schedule and a new offensive coordinator in Todd Monken that suggests he will not have many letdown games.

Drew Brees (NO)
Despite cries of a decline from a fantasy standpoint, Brees has averaged the fourth-most fantasy points per dropback over the past two seasons. The main culprits behind that number not leading to overall production have been addressed this offseason.

Gone is the 1-2 punch of Pro Bowl-caliber running backs. To replace it the Saints have loaded up at wide receiver and tight end by adding Jared Cook, Lil’Jordan Humphrey, Alize Mack, and Emmanuel Butler to a receiving corps that already boasts All-Pro receiver Michael Thomas and deep threats Ted Ginn and Tre’Quan Smith.

Brees should threaten a top-five finish in fantasy points with all of the upgrades the Saints have made to the passing game. Alvin Kamara being on the field more than he was when Mark Ingram was in town will also help the offense become a more explosive version of itself. The seventh QB taken off the board based on consensus ADP, Brees has a very good chance to outperform his draft position.

Russell Wilson (SEA)
The enigma that is Russell Wilson. One of the very best fantasy quarterbacks on a per dropback basis, Wilson does not average enough to reach his true fantasy ceiling. Wilson is one of the best pure passers in the league but also doubles as one of its greatest rushing threats (sixth in rushing yards in 2018). His ability to extend plays is second to none and will help rookies D.K. Metcalf and Gary Jennings reach their potential sooner rather than later.

With a revamped receiving corps the Seahawks should see a nice boost on the 26.7 pass attempts per game they averaged last season. Wilson ranked third in air yards per attempt and still finished as a QB1 despite his number one receiver Doug Baldwin playing hurt and operating as a shell of himself. With such an influx of talent and Rashaad Penny who is an excellent receiver in his own right expected to see more snaps, Wilson could see his pass attempts per game climb over the 30 per game mark. Currently, the eighth QB off the board based on consensus ADP, Wilson has every chance to exceed his draft position in fantasy points.

Cam Newton (CAR)
Despite playing hurt for much of the season, Cam Newton averaged more fantasy points per game in 2018 than he did in 2017 when he finished third in overall points and fifth in average points. He was able to finish eighth in average fantasy points despite being banged up and having a receiver corps that ranked 19th in the league in target separation.

A healthy season with an improved D.J. Moore and Curtis Samuel and trusted target Greg Olsen back in the fold should return Cam to the top-five conversation in fantasy points. He will likely not produce as many fantasy points with his legs as he has in his fantasy prime, but they will still be a source of a chunk of his value. The 10th quarterback off the board based on consensus ADP, Newton could be a bargain on draft day.

Lamar Jackson (BAL)
Lamar Jackson dazzled the fantasy world with his legs in 2018 and promises to become a threat through the air in 2019. Jackson was a QB1 in five of the last seven weeks of the season. He averaged 79.3 rushing yards per game over that span. To put this in context, only five running backs averaged over 76 yards per game in 2018.

Jackson totaled 695 rushing yards in 2018 and is very likely to exceed that total this season and lead his position once again. To put his 695 rushing yards in context, he had more yardage than Mark Ingram, Kerryon Johnson, Dalvin Cook, and Kenyan Drake. He will not rush for the 79.3 yards per game he managed as a starter last season, but could very well threaten the 1,000-yard mark. He would need 62.5 rushing yards per game to get there.

Jackson has seen a massive facelift to his receiver corps and has welcomed a new number one and number two receiver in rookies Marquise Brown and Miles Boykin. Two of the most athletic and explosive players in this years draft class, these receivers can gain the instant separation needed to help Jackson thrive. Jackson has already shown a great rapport with tight end Mark Andrews dating back to last season and has been impressed by what he has seen from Boykin up to this point. The ‘fantasy sky’ is the limit for the talented Baltimore Raven. He is an absolute steal at his current consensus ADP as the 18th QB off the board.

Matt Ryan (ATL)
The number to know is 13. A number of power outside of the western hemisphere, Matt Ryan and his fantasy owners are set to become believers in the power of this number. Matt Ryan will play an incredible 13 games inside a dome in 2019. Ryan averaged a robust 23.1 fantasy points per game in a dome last season compared to just 20.1 points outside of one. According to PFF, 70 percent of his 37 highest scoring fantasy games were played in a dome.

Love him or hate him, Matt Ryan is a consistent fantasy option with a great supporting cast. His reads, or lack of them, can drive fantasy owners of his wide receivers nuts at times, but his own fantasy points care not who he passes the ball to. Losing Tevin Coleman is a blow to the explosiveness of the Falcons offense, but it will not knock Ryan out of the top-12 fantasy QBs. Julio Jones will remain one of the most dominant receivers in the league, Calvin Ridley and Austin Hooper should both find more consistency this season, and the return of Devonta Freeman will help the offense become less predictable.

Number two in fantasy points per game and number five in fantasy points per dropback in 2018, Ryan should continue to have success this season. Play-action will help open things up for both the pass and the run. He saw 35 passing touchdowns in 2018 and led the league in air yards. He also fell less than 100 yards short of 5,000 passing yards for the second time in three seasons. He will likely see his yardage drop this season, but should threaten his career high of 38 passing touchdowns if Ridley and Hooper improve as expected.

Jameis Winston (TB)
Jameis Winston had a great 2018 that saw him average 20.6 points per game in the contests he played at least 75 percent of the team’s snaps. That average would have placed him sixth in the league. His extrapolated pace of 309 fantasy points (over the 15 game fantasy season) would have also placed him sixth in the league.

Winston actually has a higher fantasy ceiling in 2019 under Bruce Arians. There is still some debate as to who his starting running back and number three receiver will be, but his top three options in Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and O.J. Howard will likely help him produce the majority of his fantasy points anyways.

Number two in average air yards per attempt in 2018, Jameis may lead this category this season with Bruce Arians expected to be even more aggressive in his play calling. The perceived lack of a competent run game ensures the Bucs will air it out often enough to make the analytics crowd nod in approval. Winston is a terrific bet to outperform his consensus ADP as the 15th QB off the board.

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Raju Byfield is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Raju, check out his profile and follow him @FantasyContext.