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Starters with Shaky Job Security (2019 Fantasy Football)

Starters with Shaky Job Security (2019 Fantasy Football)

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The most important characteristic of a football player for fantasy football is that they must actually play football. We often concern ourselves with whether players may miss time due to injury, but equally as important is whether a player is at risk of missing time due to being usurped by a superior player.

Job security varies from position to position. At quarterback, it is relatively obvious when a player is at risk of losing his job. It is rare that a fantasy-relevant quarterback has job security issues. At tight end, while not as obvious as at quarterback, the concern is largely over whether a player will actually produce fantasy points rather than playing time. At wide receiver, we care more about the actual talent of the player as compared to running backs, so if a receiver is at risk of losing his job, it is probably because he’s not very good.

The bulk of this list will focus on running backs. As the most replaceable position on an NFL offense, multiple running backs lose their jobs every season. The difference between running backs and the other three fantasy positions is that at running back, a backup can step in and match or come close to the production of the displaced starter. At wide receiver, if Odell Beckham goes down, Rashard Higgins does not become him.

Without further ado, here are a handful of starters with questionable job security.

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Jameis Winston (QB – TB)
The only quarterback on this list is Jameis Winston. We have seen plenty of terrible real-life quarterbacks be strong fantasy options. It is usually due to rushing ability, but 2015 Blake Bortles also happened. Winston has been talked about as a potential breakout in fantasy due to Bruce Arians’ desire to push the ball downfield through the air. Winston has a big arm and is not afraid to take chances. His general mindset is conducive to big yardage totals. The problem for fantasy owners is he is also prone to throwing the ball to the wrong team.

Winston ranked 10th in interceptable passes in 2018 and he played in only 11 games, which is still an improvement on 2017 where he ranked second in interceptable passes. More concerning, however, is the fact that Winston was already benched…twice. While Bruce Arians loves to fix “broken” players, he has no allegiance to Winston. If Winston struggles with the poor decision-making and turnover issues that have plagued him his entire career, Arians will bench him, the Bucs’ season will tank, and they will draft his replacement in 2020.

Geronimo Allison (WR- GB)
To be fair, I’m not entirely sure Geronimo Allison is a starter, but since fantasy owners are drafting him like he is, he finds himself on this list. If someone can point me to a less athletic wide receiver that isn’t lower than fourth on a team’s depth chart, please let me know so I can laugh. Allison’s speed score is in the 23rd percentile, which is somehow way better than his sixth percentile agility score. His catch radius sits in just the 29th percentile. The Packers drafted three wide receivers in 2018, all of whom are more athletic (obviously). Even if Allison is starting Week 1, it is easy to envision Equanimeous St. Brown, J’Mon Moore, or Jake Kumerow outplaying Allison (I am already assuming Marquez Valdes-Scantling is starting as well). At best, Allison is the Packers’ WR3, which does have fantasy value. The problem for Allison is at the wide receiver position, you can’t just have the job to be productive — you actually have to be talented, which Allison is not. He is currently being drafted just inside the top 36 wide receivers, which is outrageously high for a talentless player with suspect job security.

Dante Pettis (WR – SF)
After a strong rookie season, the consensus hive mind has anointed Dante Pettis as the 49ers’ WR1. Are we sure? That depth chart seems wide open. Marquise Goodwin was the clear WR1 heading into 2018 and then Jimmy Garoppolo tore his ACL, Goodwin got hurt, and the wheels completely fell off. With both of them healthy now, he has a good chance to resume that role. The 49ers also spent a second-round pick on Deebo Samuel. That is some hefty draft capital and Samuel is pretty similar to Pettis in skillset. There are rumors (which we should always take with a grain of salt) that Pettis isn’t performing as well as expected at training camp. Perhaps Samuel could start alongside Goodwin? Trent Taylor was being talked about as the starting slot receiver before he broke his foot. Kendrick Bourne is still around. Richie James is still around (for now). Jalen Hurd is like a jack of all trades gadget man. The simple fact is there are a lot of pass catchers in San Francisco. The assumption is that Pettis is the guy and he will take a step forward in 2019 with Garoppolo back, but would it really be that shocking if Pettis got lost in the shuffle and ended up on waiver wires by Week 4?

James Conner (RB – PIT)
While James Conner isn’t likely to completely lose his job, we should always be wary of running backs that essentially come out of nowhere. Conner only broke out last year because Le’Veon Bell didn’t play. It was never the Steelers’ intention to feature Conner. Although Conner performed well, he really isn’t all that talented. He’s kind of like Jordan Howard with better hands. Conner can run straight and not much else. He has sixth percentile burst and 18th percentile agility. He can be an elite fantasy producer as long as he has his role, but Jaylen Samuels is significantly more athletic, possesses a three-down skill set, and is an exponentially better pass catcher, having played a wide receiver/tight end hybrid role in college. It is within the realm of possibilities that Samuels operates as the primary passing-down back while splitting early-down carries with Conner, which would be enough to render Conner a bust at his ADP.

Damien Williams (RB – KC)
This name should come as no surprise. The 27-year-old former UDFA with 291 career touches was never going to have any semblance of job security. Earlier in the summer, Andy Reid proclaimed Damien Williams as his guy. More recently, Reid went on record stating he would use a running back by committee. Williams missed time with a hamstring issue and sat out the Chiefs’ first preseason game, and so Carlos Hyde and Darwin Thompson have gotten opportunities to work with the first team. Hyde has been a three-down back before and Thompson, while not very productive in college, was at least drafted by the team on purpose. The Chiefs owe Williams nothing. Even if he is the clear bellcow in Week 1, all it could take is a minor injury causing him to miss a couple of weeks and Hyde or Thompson could play well (because any running back can produce on the Chiefs) and that’s all she wrote for Williams. The Chiefs’ primary running back will be an excellent fantasy asset. You want that guy. Right now, it is still Williams. How long that remains the case is questionable.

Aaron Jones (RB – GB)
I don’t think anyone questions whether Aaron Jones is the most talented running back on the Packers. However, not enough people are questioning whether Jones is actually going to be used properly. Thus far, he has not been. Jones has lost his job to Jamaal Williams multiple times purely due to suspension and/or injury. Jones has missed games in both of his seasons. He is a fifth-round draft pick. The Packers and particularly the new regime have no allegiance to Jones; they have no incentive to push him as the main guy to validate a contract or a draft pick. If Jones gets hurt again, he could find himself on the wrong side of a committee. If Matt LaFleur decides to implement a committee, then Jones isn’t the clear starter. There are multiple paths to Jones not having the role he needs to have to justify his ADP. Keep that in mind when considering pulling the trigger on Jones in fantasy drafts.

Chris Carson (RB – SEA)
The reality is Chris Carson shouldn’t be on this list because he shouldn’t be the starter. The talent gap between Carson and Rashaad Penny is a chasm. Pete Carroll, whose entire reputation as a good coach is based on his 2012 decision to start rookie Russell Wilson over big-time free agent acquisition Matt Flynn, did so because Wilson was simply better. Well, Penny is better than Carson and he has first-round draft capital, yet Carson held Penny off for all of 2018 and appears to have the upper hand entering 2019. Carson has incredible burst. He runs straight. He runs hard. Give him a hole and he can hit it with fury. Ask him to move laterally in the open field and he looks at you like you have three heads. Penny is bigger, faster, stronger, and a better receiver. It is entirely possible that Carson does it again, but anytime you have a seventh-round running back with a talented first-round running back behind him, you should be worried.

LeSean McCoy (RB – BUF)
The only thing that seems clear in the Bills’ backfield is that T.J. Yeldon is the odd man out. Yeldon will likely be a post-preseason cut, leaving the Bills with a depth chart of LeSean McCoy, Devin Singletary, and Frank Gore. It seems unfathomable that 87-year-old Frank Gore is not only still in the NFL, but a threat to McCoy. Singletary, on the other hand, is a rookie with a three-down skill set. I don’t think Singletary is all that good, but he can run straight and he can catch passes. McCoy is not merely 31 years old, he’s an old 31. If McCoy maintains a part-time role in this backfield in 2019, he will eclipse 3,000 career touches. He’s well past the age apex and he has significantly more tread on his tires than most running backs do after 30. The Bills are going nowhere with Josh Allen at quarterback. They have nothing to gain from continuing to pound McCoy. To be fair, they also had nothing to gain by signing Gore, but they did that anyway. Ultimately, McCoy is probably the most likely player on this list to lose his job.

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Jason Katz is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Jason, check out his archive or follow him @jasonkatz13.

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