DeAndre Hopkins or Davante Adams? Amari Cooper or Adam Thielen? Aaron Jones or Devonta Freeman? We’ll come back to that.

Need more advice? Get access to our Draft Kit and Draft Wizard tools

I studied psychology by trade, so I always find myself paying entirely too much attention to the abstract parts of drafting. For example, you’d be disgusted to find out how much I think about when the best time to nominate certain players during an auction draft is, whether or not people are willing to spend more early or if they prefer to save, or what the preferred draft slot in a redraft snake league is. Some of it is valuable. Some of it is a waste of my time. I can justify any insight into how people think about their draft as being valuable, so that brings me back to the pairs of players above.

I bet the majority of people leaned towards Hopkins, Cooper, and Freeman. The players within each of the pairs above are right next to each other according to FantasyPros ECR, but the three players I just mentioned have one thing in common — they’re the “sexy” one in the pair, in my opinion at least. One of my favorite things to look for in a draft are the non-sexy players — the ones that you barely even read when looking down your draft board (think Jordan Howard in the third round in 2018) — and evaluate if I can handle dealing with their unsexiness (definitely a word) on my team, because there’s a good chance they fall a few picks. When it comes to actually drafting, I bet several owners see these players and think to themselves, “I just can’t draft him here.” You can acknowledge the statistics, expected production, and everything else, but when it comes down to it, a similarly-projected sexy player is always going to win.

Okay, done saying “sexy.” Now it’s getting weird. 

Most of this is my perception, so you may disagree. Ultimately, if you are personally targeting these players, you may be able to get a tiny discount on them, or maybe you’ll be pleasantly surprised to see them fall to you. I’m not even talking about a full round, but I think four or five picks is reasonable. Beyond that, I think it’s an interesting concept, so hopefully, you’re at least entertained.

The picks below are based on FantasyPros ECR and average draft position (ADP) for half PPR. “Surrounded by” refers to players being drafted very closely to the player in question.

James Conner (RB – PIT)
Surrounded by: Julio Jones, Odell Beckham Jr., Le’Veon Bell, Michael Thomas
I have pretty high expectations for Conner heading into 2019, but he’s a guy that’s going to get passed up for an elite wide receiver or a once-fantasy-juggernaut Le’Veon Bell. His durability and the involvement of Jaylen Samuels are enough to give owners caution, plus it’s a lot easier to picture highlights of Bell and the elite receivers. He’s definitely an “I just can’t” candidate.

Dalvin Cook (RB – MIN)
Surrounded by: Nick Chubb, Tyreek Hill, Todd Gurley, Mike Evans, George Kittle
Cook really hit the jackpot here. The closest running backs to him are Nick Chubb, the bell cow on everyone’s favorite breakout team, and Todd Gurley, an absolute stud when healthy. Beyond those two, you have two high-ceiling receivers and a stud tight end for those trying to play the position scarcity game. Cook just doesn’t hold up with the electricity around him.

Robert Woods (WR – LAR)
Surrounded by: Julian Edelman, Brandin Cooks, Kenny Golladay
Robert Woods was astoundingly consistent and productive in 2018 with only two (!) games below 60 receiving yards. He and Cooks are probably the 1A and 1B on the Rams, but Cooks is a lot easier to prefer because of his big-play ability. Edelman is the favorite target of arguably the best quarterback in NFL history and Golladay is a beast just waiting to break out.

Mark Ingram (RB – BAL)
Surrounded by: Josh Jacobs, Chris Carson, Sony Michel
Aside from two weeks in the middle of the season, Ingram wasn’t all that impressive last year. He’s big enough to be a power back, yet he can catch as well. I don’t think anyone really knows what Baltimore’s offense is going to be, as they have a QB and three RBs capable of carrying the ball. I know I’ll be siding with the bell cows in Jacobs and Carson or the upside of Michel if Ingram is next on my list.

Allen Robinson (WR – CHI)
Surrounded by: D.J. Moore, A.J. Green, Mike Williams
I partly expect Robinson to be unseated by Anthony Miller in 2019, but beyond that, I’m just not crazy about the Bears’ offense. Fantasy owners would much rather have the likely number one in Cam Newton’s offense with Moore, a soon-to-be-healthy-ish Green, or the touchdown specialist in Williams.

Lamar Miller (RB – HOU)
Surrounded by: James White, Kenyan Drake, Tevin Coleman, Tarik Cohen
I know I said I was going to stop saying it, but it literally doesn’t get any less sexy than Lamar Miller. I owned tons of shares in him last year and he was so maddening to own. He’d be basically worthless for a few weeks, and once you benched him, he’d erupt. The only way I think Miller gets drafted ahead of these guys is if an owner is very nervous about their running backs and wants a safety blanket. Other than that, most owners should take one of the high-upside guys around him.

Let me know of anyone else that you just couldn’t bring yourself to draft. Also, if you find yourself doing this on draft day, either with these guys or anyone else, you’re legally obligated to tell me about it. It says so right here.

Practice fast mock drafts with our free Mock Draft Simulator

Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Google Play | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | TuneIn | RSS

Donald Gibson is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Donald, check out his archive and follow him @DonaldGibsonFF.